— Even as a new president is inaugurated today, the outgoing president looms large.
— As Senate Republicans ponder how to vote in the Trump impeachment trial, they may be incentivized to move the party past Trump as they seek to recapture power in Washington next year.
Analyzing how House Republicans voted in last week’s Electoral College disputes.
— Roughly two-thirds of House Republicans backed at least one of two objections to a state’s presidential results last week. And a clear majority backed both.
— Generally speaking, members who backed both objections come from more Republican-leaning districts than those who opposed both.
Republicans retain an edge in the Electoral College.
— Joe Biden did better than Hillary Clinton in the lion’s share of states.
— However, when one takes into account how the states voted relative to the nation, Republicans retain an edge in the Electoral College.
— Despite voting for Biden, key battleground states such as Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all became more Republican relative to the national voting. Biden did solidify a number of the Clinton-won states, though, most notably Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Democrats may ultimately have a better shot to win the Senate than the House in two years, although winning either will be challenging.
— Democrats may have a better chance of winning the Senate in 2022 than holding the House, even if Democrats lose both Georgia special elections in January.
— The president’s party often struggles in midterms, which gives the GOP a generic advantage in the battle for Congress.
— The Republicans’ three most vulnerable Senate seats may all be open in 2022.
Biden’s thin margins in the decisive states; third party vote declines; Senate aligns more closely with presidential partisanship; Republicans demonstrate down-ballot crossover appeal.
— Joe Biden is on track to exceed Barack Obama’s 2012 popular vote margin, but his victory in the key states is even narrower than Donald Trump’s in 2016.
— Less than 2% of the national vote went to candidates other than Biden and Trump, a significant change from 2016.
— Assuming nothing changes, as many as 94 of 100 senators in the next Congress will share the same party as the state’s presidential winner.
— The ability to generate crossover support helped Republicans perform surprisingly well in both Senate and House races.
And how we’re thinking about the presidential race with five days to go.
— Georgia’s two Senate races move to Toss-up.
— They may be the only two races we leave in Toss-up when we release our final election picks on Monday.
— The concept of Occam’s Razor — the idea that the simplest explanation is sometimes the likeliest explanation — might be a useful framework to use when assessing the presidential race.
— With 19 days to go before the election, Joe Biden’s lead in the presidential race remains steady, although his national lead is bigger than his leads in the most crucial swing states.
— In the Senate, Republicans appear to be getting some traction against Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), although Peters remains favored in our ratings. Overall, the Senate battlefield continues to expand, with Republicans having to play more defense in places like Alaska and Kansas.
— Eight House rating changes largely benefit Democrats.
Rating changes in Electoral College, Senate, Governor, and House.
— Recent rosy polling for Joe Biden in the presidential race may represent an artificial sugar high for the challenger.
— But at this point, Donald Trump needs to be making up ground — not treading water or falling further behind.
— 11 rating changes across four categories of races (president, Senate, House, and governor) almost exclusively benefit Democrats.
Challenger edges over 270; rating changes for Senate, House.
— With the first debate now in the books, we have close to 20 rating changes across the Electoral College, Senate, and House.
— Joe Biden is now over 270 electoral votes in our ratings as we move several Midwestern states in his favor.
— Changes in the battle for Congress benefit Democrats almost exclusively. We’re moving two Senate races in their direction, as well as several House contests.
After Trump maxed out the Buckeye State’s rural areas and small town areas, can Biden max out the suburbs?
— Ohio insiders believe that the state is closer than last time, and that Donald Trump is struggling mightily in suburban areas.
— Still, Ohio should vote considerably to the right of the nation, thanks to its high percentage of white voters who don’t have a four-year college degree — a strong group for Trump — and its smaller-than-average nonwhite population, a group that is very Democratic.
— Suburban areas in general, and the Cincinnati and Dayton areas in particular, would likely be a key part of a Biden path to victory. But Trump is still better-positioned to win the state.
That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes.
— Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot.
— Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties.
— We are making 14 House rating changes, 10 in favor of Democrats and four in favor of Republicans. The changes don’t really impact our overall House assessment, which is that we are not expecting much net change in the makeup of the House.
Eight shifts, almost all benefiting Democrats.
— Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing.
— At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall.
— There are eight rating changes this week: seven in favor of Democrats, one in favor of Republicans.
If Trump’s numbers don’t improve, some surprising states could come into play.
— President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half.
— With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.
— We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
— Our current ratings represent something of a hedge between a Trump comeback and Biden maintaining or expanding his large national lead.
— We also are moving the Missouri gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
11 rating changes, most in favor of Democrats.
— Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf.
— Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could become vulnerable if Trump were to lose the state.
— We have 11 House rating changes, 10 of which benefit Democrats.
— Democrats remain favored to retain their House majority.
Florida, Pennsylvania shift toward Biden, but he’s still shy of the magic number 270 in our ratings.
— We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week.
— Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
— This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings; 204 are at least leaning to Donald Trump; and there are 66 electoral votes in the Toss-up category.
— Biden is decently positioned, although his current lead may be inflated.
— Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice enter our list of Joe Biden’s vice presidential contenders.
— Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) drops off.
— The top names remain the same.
— Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) seems to be rising in the Biden veepstakes.
— Late Wednesday, Jon Ossoff (D) apparently captured the Democratic nomination to face Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), thus avoiding a runoff.
— Primaries in South Carolina and West Virginia saw protest voting in some key races.
Harris, Demings leads our list of contenders; Biden is wise to wait on making his pick.
— Joe Biden should not be in a rush to name his vice presidential pick. Circumstances may change his list of contenders — and probably already have.
— A predictable name leads our list, but a not-so predictable name is second.
— Biden has many plausible options, but no perfect one.
— History, and the president’s own public statements, suggest that the Trump-Pence ticket will stick together in 2020.
— The last time an elected president running for reelection changed his running mate was Franklin Roosevelt way back in 1944.
— But there are some reasons to believe that Trump could revisit his running mate choice between now and the Republican National Convention.
When sizing up the 2020 election, it is natural for campaign pros and analysts to consider the kinds of voters who might defect from their 2016 selection. Can Joe Biden claw back some small but important share of the Barack Obama voters who defected to Donald Trump? Can Trump stop his party’s slide in the suburbs?
