If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Most Recent Releases

White letter R on blue background
October 25, 2018

A Dozen Days To Go: Ratings Changes in Gubernatorial, House Races By Kyle Kondik


— The battles for the state governorships are getting more volatile as Election Day nears. We are moving three races, Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota, to Toss-up.

— Republican odds of holding the Senate are as good as ever.

— The playing field continues to expand in the House.

White letter R on blue background
October 18, 2018

The Drive for 25: An updated seat-by-seat analysis of the House By Kyle Kondik

Democrats closing in on majority but it's not a sure thing.

White letter R on blue background
October 11, 2018

Midterm Update: North Dakota Goes to Leans Republican, Giving the Republicans a Clearer Edge in the Senate By Kyle Kondik

Because we know readers want to see the up-to-the-minute state of play, we’re going to be publishing our Senate and gubernatorial maps, along with our House ratings tables, at the top of the Crystal Ball each week from here to the election. One can also always find our ratings at our Crystal Ball site as well as the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas, which also features projections based on poll-based modeling and social media metrics.

White letter R on blue background
October 4, 2018

Ratings Changes: House, Senate, and Governor By Kyle Kondik

Democrats inching closer to magic number in House, poised to net several governorships; Senate battle murky as Kavanaugh effect uncertain

White letter R on blue background
September 20, 2018

Ratings Changes: House and Governors By Kyle Kondik

Affluent suburban seats looking dicier for GOP, but their numbers in the House are not all bad; Colorado, Michigan gubernatorial races shift to Democrats.

White letter R on blue background
September 6, 2018

Senate 2018: At Least for Now, the Elephant Endures By Kyle Kondik

GOP maintains edge in race for upper chamber, but Democratic path to majority remains open.

White letter R on blue background
August 30, 2018

A Labor Day Status Report - Plus, Updates From Tuesday Night By Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about this election so far:

White letter R on blue background
August 23, 2018

House Update: 12 Ratings Changes By Kyle Kondik

Tuesday’s bombshell developments — the conviction of President Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, followed in swift succession by a guilty plea from the president’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, that seemed to implicate the president in a scheme to skirt campaign finance laws — may very well not move the president’s approval rating. Previous developments related to Robert Mueller’s investigation of the 2016 campaign and Russian involvement really haven’t. But it would be wrong to look at what happened earlier this week and argue that the Cohen/Manafort news doesn’t mean anything to the battle for the House.

White letter R on blue background
August 16, 2018

The Governors: Ratings Changes Abound By Kyle Kondik

Now that 40 of the 50 states have held primaries so far, including major primaries in Minnesota and Wisconsin on Tuesday night, we thought this was a good time to take stock of, and to reassess, the gubernatorial landscape.

White letter R on blue background
May 31, 2018

A Post-Memorial Day Status Report By Kyle Kondik

In a bygone political era, the symbolic end of summer — Labor Day — denoted the unofficial start of the campaign season. In our current era, one might be tempted to say that the symbolic start of summer — Memorial Day — now represents the campaign season kickoff, though American politics is in a state of perpetual campaigning. As soon as one campaign concludes with an election, candidates for the next election start to emerge. That will be the case after this November’s election, when one would expect the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination to begin in earnest.

White letter R on blue background
May 24, 2018

Clues From the Upcoming California Primary By Kyle Kondik

House analysts know that handicapping results in individual seats can be tricky for a lot of reasons, including the lack of independent polling in most districts. Yes, the party committees, campaigns, and other outside groups will survey the districts, but many of these polls will never see the light of day, or will only be leaked to make one side look better than the other

White letter R on blue background
May 17, 2018

The Democrats’ Drive for 25 in the House: An Update By Kyle Kondik

In early February, we sketched out a potential path to a Democratic House majority. We called it the “Drive for 25,” in reference to the Democrats’ branding of their unsuccessful attempt to win the House in 2012. Three and a half months later, we thought we’d revisit this possible Democratic path to the majority and see how much has (or hasn’t) changed.

White letter R on blue background
May 10, 2018

Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House By Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary.

White letter R on blue background
May 3, 2018

Ohio’s Primary: The Heart Of It All By Kyle Kondik

Coming off his second term as state attorney general, Mike DeWine (R) has been a clear frontrunner to be the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee for the past several years. DeWine, a former U.S. senator (1995-2007) who has held posts at all levels of government, started the primary season with three major challengers: Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted (R), Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (R), and U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci (R, OH-16). The attorney general has faced criticism in the past from conservative activists for various perceived apostasies, such as backing a deal over judicial confirmations during the Bush administration and being insufficiently pro-gun for some during his tenure in the Senate. But DeWine’s time as attorney general has allowed him to repair some of these relationships, particularly with pro-gun forces.

White letter R on blue background
April 26, 2018

Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains By Kyle Kondik

Rep.-elect Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)’s victory in a special election Tuesday night fit into the pattern we’ve seen in other special elections this cycle. In a clearly Republican-leaning seat, Lesko won but ran significantly behind Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential performance. Trump won the district by 21 percentage points, whereas Lesko only won by about five points, based on unofficial results. Given the district’s strong Republican lineage, we thought any result in the single digits would be bad for Republicans. Lesko should be fine in the fall as an incumbent — and we’re moving her district to Safe Republican — but we now have had eight federal special elections this cycle in Trump-won, Republican-held seats (including the Alabama Senate election), and while Republicans have retained six of them, only one of those was an easy hold (UT-3).

White letter R on blue background
April 19, 2018

Underestimate Trump’s Reelection Odds at Your Own Peril By Kyle Kondik

One might have done better in predicting the 2016 presidential election, or at least in anticipating the very close eventual outcome, by basing a projection of the national popular vote on the findings of several political science models released prior to the election. These models, which were compiled by James Campbell of the University at Buffalo, SUNY and printed in both PS: Political Science and Politics and here at the Crystal Ball, generally pointed to a close election. These models mostly made their predictions several months in advance of the election and were based on the incumbent’s approval rating, the economy, and other “fundamental” factors.

White letter R on blue background
April 12, 2018

Exit Paul Ryan: Another Blow to Republican Odds in the House By Kyle Kondik

The political world was rocked Wednesday morning by House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R, WI-1) decision to not seek reelection to his southeastern Wisconsin House seat. That said, Ryan’s departure really should not have come as that much of a surprise. Rumors had been swirling for months that Ryan was not long for the House, and we flagged this strong possibility for Crystal Ball readers more than a month ago when we first listed Ryan’s district on our list of competitive House seats, moving it from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

White letter R on blue background
April 5, 2018

Notes on the State of Politics By Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Mirror images of vulnerability; two statewide Democrats get upgrades; electoral consequences from #MeToo


— The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites.

— Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades.

— Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is contributing to a high number of open House seats this cycle.

White letter R on blue background
March 29, 2018

The House Exodus By Kyle Kodik

In the roughly two and a half months since we last assessed an already-long list of House open seats this cycle -- and even in the week since my colleague Geoffrey Skelley took a deep look at the pace of House retirements historically -- the number of open House seats has continued to increase.

White letter R on blue background
March 15, 2018

Are Republicans In More Special Trouble? By Kyle Kondik

Assessing upcoming House specials in Arizona and Ohio after Lamb’s upset in Pennsylvania