If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Most Recent Releases

White letter R on blue background
May 11, 2012

Let's Not Overreact to the Judd Mutiny By Kyle Kondik

We would make a joke about President Obama only taking 59% of the West Virginia primary vote against a federal prison inmate named Keith Judd, but every possible one was exhausted on Twitter by Wednesday morning. Suffice it to say, it was an embarrassing performance for the president, albeit in a state he has no chance of winning in November.

White letter R on blue background
March 30, 2012

Democrats’ House Hopes Could Run Aground in Great Lakes By Kyle Kondik

During the War of 1812, Commodore Oliver Hazard Perry whipped the British in the famous Battle of Lake Erie. Nearly 200 years later, winning Lake Erie won’t suffice for Democrats seeking to reclaim the House; they need to win on the shores of all five Great Lakes.

Now that decennial redistricting is nearly over, we have a relatively complete picture of where and how the race for the House will be run. While there are hotspots all over the country, the key region that will determine future control of the House is a combination of the Midwest and the Northeast — the eight states that touch the Great Lakes: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

White letter R on blue background
January 20, 2012

Voter Disgust: What Might it Mean for the House Race? By Kyle Kondik

We here at the Crystal Ball, and of course our readers, love politics. But Americans don’t, especially now: Congress is historically unpopular, and Americans are so sick of politics that more than two-thirds of them according to one survey wished the presidential campaign was over even before it officially started.

White letter R on blue background
October 21, 2011

Fortress Red, Fortress Blue: The Partisan Bedrock Of The New House By Kyle Kondik

Franklin Delano Roosevelt once said that "There is nothing I love as much as a good fight." If so, he would've hated where the House is headed for the next decade, because by and large it likely won't have all that many good fights.

White letter R on blue background
October 6, 2011

Herman Cain and the Non-Politician Politician By Kyle Kondik

In the last election cycle, several "non-politician politicians" -- candidates who have never held public office who ran for a major office -- went from obscurity to high office.

White letter R on blue background
September 30, 2011

Democrats’ House Hopes Hinge on Obama By Kyle Kondik

Just a day before Election Day, the painful reality hit home for Jimmy Carter: He was toast.

White letter R on blue background
August 25, 2011

In Ohio, Labor Showdown Looms By Kyle Kondik

In the vengeful world of politics, what goes around often comes around.

White letter R on blue background
August 19, 2011

In Iowa, It's Up Close and Personal By Kyle Kondik

As the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames was wrapping up Saturday, a reporter rushed onto the floor of Iowa State University's Hilton Coliseum, where the press was filing their stories. She went up to her colleagues with what she said was a new, breaking quote from Michele Bachmann: Bachmann, the reporter said, had just vowed to make Barack Obama a "one-term president."

White letter R on blue background
July 22, 2011

Fundraising: Much Ado Over Not All That Much By Kyle Kondik

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer is expected to officially launch his presidential campaign today. His announcement again tests the famous philosophical question: If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

White letter R on blue background
July 15, 2011

Channeling Truman? The Race For The House By Kyle Kondik

In November 1946, a tall, mustachioed figure stood alone on a railroad platform at Washington's Union Station, waiting for the president of the United States to make his ignominious return to the capital. In victorious times, the platform would have been full of welcomers; as it was then, at the time of their party's defeat, Dean Acheson, the future secretary of state, was the only one waiting for President Harry Truman.

White letter R on blue background
May 20, 2011

NY-26 Special Election: Mind The Debate, Forget The Decision By Kyle Kondik

The nation got a preview of the Democrats' sweeping congressional election victories in 2010 when Democratic candidates pulled off victories in three close special House elections. The results were just the first of many for Democrats in the last cycle, when…

White letter R on blue background
May 6, 2011

The President and the Democrats, Post-bin Laden By Kyle Kondik

The death of Osama bin Laden, inflicted by crack U.S. Special Forces personnel acting on the orders of President Barack Obama, is undoubtedly a triumph for the embattled commander in chief. But will it provide him tangible political help when he stands for reelection a year and a half from now?

White letter R on blue background
April 22, 2011

South By Southwest By Kyle Kondik

The classic Alfred Hitchcock thriller "North by Northwest" contains a few of Hollywood's most memorable--and ludicrous--sequences, including a famous scene in which our hero, played by Cary Grant, finds himself being shot at by a crop duster at a bus stop near a cornfield.