Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We continue to view the race for the chamber as effectively a 50-50 proposition.

— The real playing field may be smaller than what we saw in the 2022 election cycle, if current outside spending is any indication.

— Beyond our rating changes, we have some observations about key races across the competitive map, including in Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Swing state polls show an incredibly close race in our 7 Toss-up presidential states right now.

— Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.

— If polls are understating Donald Trump again, he of course is in a great position to win given how competitive he already is in the core swing states. But there are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.

Harris’s VP Choice: Her Options, and the Possible Home State Effects By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Because of the unprecedented nature of the 2024 campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris, who stepped up to lead the Democratic ticket less than two weeks ago, has had an unusually abbreviated window in which to vet her own vice presidential prospects.

— The leading contenders to join Harris on the ticket are Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), although we are watching several other names.

— If Harris picks a running mate from a true swing state (like Arizona or Pennsylvania), it would be unusual, at least considering recent history, as most recent picks have not come from states at the center of the electoral map.

— Research is mixed on the home state bonus afforded by running mates; if any effect does exist, it is likely small—although just a small effect could be decisive in a key state.

Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans in What Remains a Toss-up Race By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making six Electoral College rating changes this week, all in favor of Republicans.

— However, we don’t really see a clear favorite in a presidential race with many confounding factors.

— We consider Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to all be must-wins for the Democrats. While one can hypothetically come up with paths to 270 electoral votes for Democrats without them, we don’t find those paths to be compelling.

— Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) remains a favorite in our ratings, but our shift of Pennsylvania to Toss-up in the presidential race prompts a concurrent change in his race, from Likely to Leans Democratic.

President vs. Senate: What to Watch in the Polls, and What History Suggests By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— A persistent finding in swing state polls is that Democrats are doing better in Senate races than Joe Biden is doing in the presidential race.

— At the topline, 2016 and 2020 produced hardly any split presidential and Senate results, suggesting that perhaps the presidential and Senate polling should converge.

— However, even in those years, there still was variation from state to state between the presidential and Senate margins.

— Focusing on the Senate races in the presidential swing states distracts from the races that will truly decide the Senate majority: red state seats with Democratic incumbents, Montana and Ohio.

An Electoral College Time Capsule By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The six presidential elections held during the 25-year history of the Center for Politics were often close, although most states voted predictably.

— As part of a time capsule we are putting together to be opened at the center’s 50th anniversary in 2049, we are asking our future students to consider what has changed and what has stayed the same.

— Had we done the same exercise when the center was founded 25 years ago, we would have seen an Electoral College alignment from 1976-1996 that looked a lot different than what we’ve become familiar with this century.

Seniors for Biden? Looking Into the Polls Among Another Key Subgroup By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Horse race presidential polling has shown some significant weaknesses for President Biden among at least a couple of key subgroups: young people and Black voters.

— However, some polls have also shown Biden doing unusually well among senior citizens.

— The oldest voters have generally voted to the right of the national vote in recent cycles, and that is probably what we should expect in 2024 as well, despite these polls.

Notes on the State of Politics: March 28, 2024 By Kyle Kondik

The narrowing GOP House majority

Rep. Mike Gallagher’s (R, WI-8) surprising announcement late last week that he would resign on April 19 combined with an earlier and also surprising resignation announcement by now ex-Rep. Ken Buck (R, CO-4) is going to have the effect of further reducing the Republicans’ already-slim House majority.

The Race for the House, Part Two By Kyle Kondik

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans.

— Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider the race for the House to be a Toss-up overall.

— The NY-3 special remains highly competitive less than a week before the election.

Previewing the Iowa Caucus By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season.

— The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is under the most pressure to perform, as he has basically bet his entire campaign on Iowa.

— To the extent frontrunning Donald Trump shows weakness, look for it in places like the Des Moines suburbs as well as a couple of counties with major universities.

— Meanwhile, a quartet of counties in the state’s northwestern corner should give us some indicators of where the Republicans’ strongest religious conservatives are in this race.

The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election anyone’s game.

— We still anticipate a close and competitive election between Biden and former President Trump, whose dominance in the GOP primary race has endured as the Iowa caucus looms.

Putting Biden’s Troubles with Young Voters in Perspective By Kyle Kondik

Youngest voters have been strongly Democratic in recent elections, but the president also has clear weaknesses with that group.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Recent 2024 presidential polling has shown President Biden performing poorly with young voters.

— The 18-29 voting bloc has been reliably Democratic leaning for at least the last several presidential elections.

— Biden’s weakness with young voters is not new, despite doing well among the group in the 2020 general election.

Notes on the State of the 2023 Elections By Kyle Kondik

VA 2023 looks a lot like 2019; ads might help explain a PA oddity; Beshear and disaster relief.

Virginia result looked a lot like four years ago

Vote counts in Virginia are nearly final but not yet certified. There were no late changes to the topline result that seemed likeliest the morning after the election: Democrats won their barest possible majorities in both chambers: 51-49 in the state House of Delegates and 21-19 in the state Senate.

Elections 2023: Democrats Enjoy a Strong Night By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

They score victories in five of the six key races we were watching, although off-year elections do not necessarily predict the following year.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Democrats won five of the six key races we were watching in Tuesday night’s elections, turning in a strong showing just a couple of days after a series of bad polls for President Joe Biden left some Democrats shook as the presidential race looms next year.

— The 2023 elections have limited predictive value, in large part because of the key differences between the Tuesday night results and what we should expect next year in the states we were watching.

The Third Party Wild Card By Kyle Kondik

Recent non-major party vote strongest out west -- and not in the states likeliest to decide 2024.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Potentially weak major party nominees paired with a long list of third party candidates could lead to a higher-than-usual level of third party voting in 2024.

— Recent third party performance has generally been strongest in western states and weakest in the South.

— The states that are most likely to decide the 2024 election have not had high average third party voting this century.

Trump and Biden Seek Historic Combined Sweep By Kyle Kondik

Despite weaknesses, they could be the first-ever pair of modern nominees to each win every nominating contest.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite weak overall favorability, Joe Biden and Donald Trump could combine for the strongest presidential nominating performance in modern history.

— Since the advent of the current nominating system in each party, which dates to the early 1970s, at least one of the two eventual major party nominees suffered at least some losses during the primary season.

— It is possible that Biden and Trump could both sweep every contest next year.

— Several nominating seasons came close to producing such a sweep, particularly in the 1996-2004 range.

The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature, Part One By Kyle Kondik

Democratic presidential lean muted in lower-turnout legislative races, but political environment appears to be different than 2021.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In this year’s state legislative races in Virginia, Republicans are trying to do something that has become rare: forge a state government trifecta in a state that voted for the other party for president.

— At first blush, Democrats would appear to have a clear edge on the map, but in an off-year election, the key districts’ presidential voting patterns overstate how Democratic they are in these legislative races.

— While President Biden’s approval rating is actually worse than it was in November 2021, when Republicans scored victories in that year’s Virginia races, the political environment is likely better for Democrats now than it was back then.

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two By Kyle Kondik

Trend from 1996-2020 shows a much larger partisan gap between bigger and smaller counties, with 2000 and 2016 as key contributors.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020.

— The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap.

— While there is nearly a 40-point difference between the top and bottom halves, the gap did not grow from 2016-2020.

Ohio’s Issue 1 Smackdown By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The left scores another win in an abortion rights proxy fight; apparent turnout and persuasion edge drives Democratic success.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio.

— Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican in recent years.

— Issue 1 seemed particularly unpopular in some usually red suburban counties, although we have to remember that ballot issues and partisan races are different and that Republicans are still in a strong position in Ohio.

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One By Kyle Kondik

Just 151 out of 3,100+ counties cast half the national vote; gap between top and bottom half expanding.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Just about 150 of the nation’s more than 3,100 counties cast half of the nation’s presidential vote in 2020.

— As we typically see at the state level, the more vote-rich counties are more Democratic, while the thousands of smaller counties that make up the bottom half are more Republican.

— This political gulf has widened. Despite similar overall national presidential margins in 2012 and 2020, the difference between the top and bottom halves expanded about 10 points from 2012 to 2020.

— Joe Biden won 126 of the 151 top half counties, while Donald Trump won 2,548 of the remaining 2,960 counties in the bottom half.

— Trump’s wins among the top half counties were concentrated among the smaller pieces of that group — Biden won all but one of the nearly 50 counties that cast 500,000 votes or more.