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POLITICAL COMMENTARY

The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans

A Commentary By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same historically-low total as 2020.

— But there are 13 Democrats in Donald Trump-won districts compared to just 3 Republicans in Kamala Harris-won districts.

The House crossover districts

Despite losing the House of Representatives majority by a narrow 220-215 margin in the 2024 elections, Democrats are more “overextended” into turf won by Donald Trump than Republicans are into turf won by Kamala Harris.

According to a collection of presidential results by congressional district from a group of “Election Twitter” All-Stars that is curated by election analyst Drew Savicki, 13 Democrats won districts that Trump carried in 2024, while only 3 Republicans won districts that Harris carried.

This is the first presidential election since 2008 in which Democrats won more of these crossover seats than Republicans, and the total, low number of crossover districts (16) is the same as it was in 2020. But that 2020 group was more mixed, with 9 Republicans in Joe Biden-won districts and 7 Democrats in Trump-won districts.

Table 1 shows the crossover districts after each election since 2000. The general trend is toward fewer of these crossover districts. In the 2000s, there were consistently about five dozen or more of these districts each election cycle, whereas since the 2012 redistricting cycle/election, the total has never eclipsed three dozen.

Table 1: Crossover districts 2000-2024

Table 2 lists the crossover districts in 2024. Notably, while all of these districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, none of them were strongly Democratic or Republican at the presidential level: The presidential margin in all of them was less than 10 points, although Rep. Jared Golden’s (D, ME-2) district came within about half a point of being a double-digit Trump district. Among all members, Golden holds the district that is most hostile to his party, at least based on 2024 presidential voting (and Trump won the electoral vote from this district in all 3 of his elections).

Table 2: 2024 House crossover district members

Source: 2024 Pres by CD curated by Drew Savicki from Election Twitter for presidential district-level results; official state-level sources for House election results.

A Democrat who narrowly avoided this list is Rep. Emilia Sykes (D, OH-13). Harris apparently won Sykes’s Akron/Canton district by less than a tenth of a percentage point, the closest presidential result in any district this year (Sykes herself won by about 2 points). This district, one of the truest swing seats in the country, may change for next cycle: Ohio is the only state that appears certain to have new congressional districts next year, as the current map has now sunset after two cycles of use (this is based on Ohio’s convoluted redistricting system). Republicans could draw a map that produces a better outcome for them than their current 10-5 edge, although there are a lot of moving pieces there. Under the current map, Democrats have been able to hold onto the two most competitive seats, OH-13 held by Sykes and the Toledo-based OH-9 held by veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), who is among the 13 Trump-district Democrats on Table 2. We’ll take a closer look at the redistricting situation in Ohio and elsewhere in a future issue, as there may be additional states beyond Ohio with new maps in 2026 (and any tweak anywhere could be important in such a closely-divided House).

There is a trio of House Republicans in Harris-won districts. Crossover Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) in a suburban Philadelphia district and Mike Lawler (R, NY-17) in an exurban district north of New York City saw Harris only carry their respective districts by less than a percentage point apiece. That means that Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) in Omaha, a surprising winner in 2024 with a well-earned reputation as an electoral survivor, is the only Republican who holds a non-marginal Harris district (this is the electoral vote that Harris won in Nebraska). Fitzpatrick, one of the House’s best electoral performers, was also part of a notable electoral trio in the 2018 midterm: He was 1 of the 3 Republicans who successfully defended a district won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 that year (the other members of that troika, Will Hurd of Texas and John Katko of New York, have since retired from the House). Fitzpatrick was also the lone member among these 16 to win by double digits in 2024, and he ran the furthest ahead of his party’s presidential margin (he has not been a major Democratic target since his initial reelection in 2018).

Part of the reason that there are fewer crossover seats now than there used to be is that there have been a number of realignments that have unified how a place votes for president with how it votes for the House. For instance, Republicans used elections like 2010 and 2014 to eliminate moderate-to-conservative white Democrats from the South. In 2018, Democrats knocked out many Republicans from suburban districts that shifted sharply away from Republicans in the Trump era.

To the extent there is a realignment that is going on now, it appears to be in heavily Hispanic and/or Asian-American districts that are not nearly as Democratic as they once were. Many of these districts remain Democratic at the topline level and voted for Kamala Harris, just not by as big of margins. But a few appear on this list as Trump districts with Democratic House members.

For instance, first-term Rep. Nellie Pou (D, NJ-9) defended a racially diverse, plurality Latino northern New Jersey district held by Rep. Bill Pascrell (D), a long-serving member who died last August. Joe Biden had carried the district by 19 points, but it swung all the way to Trump by 1 point in 2024, a 20-point net change that was one of the largest pro-Republican shifts in any congressional district from 2020 to 2024. Pou herself defeated an unheralded opponent in her race by 5 points. Is this a true battleground district? Certainly by the presidential topline it is, although it’s not uncommon for a realignment—if that is what this is—to take longer to manifest itself below the top of the ticket, and the political environment may be pro-Democratic or at least anti-Republican in 2026, given what typically happens in midterms. But Republicans likely will make a serious play for this district, either this cycle or soon thereafter.

Meanwhile, Democratic performance in heavily Latino South Texas had been cratering even before 2024, and there was another sharp turn toward the Republicans there last year, as Reps. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) and Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34) saw both of their districts flip to Trump, swinging 14 and 20 points, respectively, from 2020 (and this was after both swung double-digits away from Democrats when comparing the 2016 presidential results to 2020). In the context of 2026, Cuellar presents an interesting case, both because he is arguably the least progressive member of the Democratic House caucus and because he is under indictment on serious federal corruption charges, with a trial scheduled to begin in September. If Cuellar were to resign, Democrats would have a hard time defending the district in a special election (Cuellar faced a primary challenge from the left in both 2020 and 2022, and it is easy to imagine the district having already flipped to Republicans had the challenge been successful). Cuellar and Gonzalez were the only two House Democrats to vote with Republicans Tuesday on a bill that aims to prevent transgender athletes from participating in girls’ sports.

Reps. Josh Harder (D, CA-9) and Adam Gray (D, CA-13) hold substantially Latino Trump-won Central Valley districts that also swung double-digits away from Democrats at the presidential level in 2024; it is notable that Gray unseated now-former Rep. John Duarte (R) in a rematch of their very close 2022 race despite the strong shift against his party at the presidential level.

The competitiveness of all of these districts for 2026 will be determined by the political environment and the candidates. Some of these members may seek higher office—for instance, Golden is a possible statewide candidate in Maine, probably likelier for governor than for Senate, while Lawler could run for governor of New York. Given the political talents of both incumbents, both districts would be easier to flip as open seats.

It’s also worth noting that while there are just a few Harris-district Republicans, there are several Republicans in narrow Trump districts that Democrats will target in 2026, such as Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6), Gabe Evans (R, CO-8), Tom Barrett (R, MI-7), Tom Kean Jr. (R, NJ-7), and Jen Kiggans (R, VA-2)—Trump won all of these districts by less than 2 points apiece after Biden carried them in 2020. Remember, too, that Democrats won 215 seats in 2024, so they are already starting from a fairly high point, and they only need to net 3 more to win the House.

If Democrats do flip the House in 2026, it stands to reason that they would flip at least a few of these narrow Trump-won Republican districts—which would have the effect of expanding their roster of crossover members in 2028. Meanwhile, reducing the number of Trump-district Democrats would likely be part of the formula for Republicans if they are able to overcome midterm history and hold the House.

Kyle Kondik is a Political Analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and the Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball.

See Other Political Commentary by Kyle Kondik.

See Other Political Commentary.

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