Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

May 7, 2026House Rating Changes: 17 Shifts in Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Elsewhere By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In addition to formalizing nine ratings changes in Florida following the state adopting a new Republican gerrymander, we also are making eight other changes.
— These come in some states that were at the center of Tuesday night’s electoral action: Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana, with others coming in Minnesota, North Carolina, and Texas.
— The Florida changes, on balance, help the GOP bottom line in the House, while the other changes benefit Democrats.
— Our overall House ratings show 213 districts rated as Safe, Likely, or Leans Democratic, 207 rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican, and 15 rated as Toss-ups.

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                            May 6, 2026Data Center Freak-Out By John Stossel
   Data centers are big buildings full of machines that process what we do on our phones and computers.

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                            May 5, 2026The Silenced Generation By Daniel McCarthy
        Are America's college students doing to themselves what the Chinese Communist state does to its citizens?

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                            May 5, 2026Time for Jerome Powell to Go Home By Stephen Moore
        The man just won't leave the stage.

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                            May 1, 2026The Young, Violent Political Left By Michael Barone
        You have to be awfully smart to believe something this stupid. In a Manhattan Institute survey of Democratic voters, 46% said they believed it was definitely or probably true that "the assassination attempt against Donald Trump in July 2024 was orchestrated by his supporters to increase sympathy for him."

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                            April 29, 2026Zyn Isn't Sin By John Stossel
   Zyns are super popular.

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                            April 29, 2026Hospitals and Insurers Are Getting Rich Off Medical Fraud By Stephen Moore
   Polls show Americans are angry -- and rightly so -- at accelerating medical bills. Meanwhile, the insurers and hospitals keep raking in record profits.

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                            April 28, 2026Colleges Are Making Political Violence Worse By Daniel McCarthy
   The ranks of would-be presidential assassins are a cavalcade of losers, yet the latest shooter who set out to murder Donald Trump -- the man who opened fire at the White House Correspondents' Dinner on Sunday -- turns out to have an elite educational background.

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                            April 24, 2026All Redistricting Reformers Are Hypocrites By Michael Barone
   Hypocrisy was triumphant, as it usually is in arguments over redistricting, in Virginia this week, as voters approved a "fairness" constitutional amendment allowing the Democratic-majority legislature to enact a congressional districting plan that is expected to increase Democrats' edge in its congressional delegation from 6-5 to 10-1. This is a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried over then-candidate Donald Trump by a 52% to 46% margin.
April 22, 2026Voters Approving Virginia Democratic Gerrymander Puts Democrats on Cusp of 218 House Seats in Ratings, but Questions Remain By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Virginia voters on Tuesday evening approved a new Democratic U.S. House gerrymander.
— As a result, we are moving four House ratings in favor of Democrats.
— The new Virginia map is not completely set, though, as the Supreme Court of Virginia could still revert to the old map if it finds that Virginia Democrats did not follow proper procedure in presenting this constitutional amendment to voters.

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                            April 22, 2026Vance-Rubio: A Republican Ticket Built for 2028 By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
With the 2024 election decided, the political conversation has already moved on: what comes next? For Republicans, that question increasingly centers on J. D. Vance.

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                            April 22, 2026The Triumph of Economic Freedom? By John Stossel
        Prices rise. People blame capitalism.

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                            April 21, 2026Immigration Amnesty by Any Other Name By Daniel McCarthy
        "Dignity" is just another word for "amnesty" in an ill-conceived law now being pushed by a Miami-area Republican congresswoman.

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                            April 21, 2026Lawyers Sue for Higher Prices By Stephen Moore
        You aren't going to believe the latest lawsuit fad in America: suing companies as monopolistic for cutting prices to consumers. In legal mumbo jumbo, this is called "predatory pricing" -- keeping prices lower than charged by competitors. The idea is to keep prices so low that rival firms can't compete. Quick, throw Walmart, Home Depot and McDonald's in jail.

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                            April 17, 2026How Hungary Matters By Michael Barone
   What's the big deal about Hungary? It's a central European country with 9.5 million people -- slightly less in population and area than the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. But it's been the subject of more care, attention and debate in America than any other country in Europe or the Western Hemisphere.
April 16, 2026The Places We’re Watching as Virginia Votes on a Pro-Democratic House Map By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Next week, Virginians will decide whether or not to scrap their current House map, where Democrats have a 6-5 advantage, in favor of one where Democrats could win up to 10 seats.
— The state Supreme Court will consider the legality of the ballot measure after the vote is held next week; Republicans are hoping that, if the measure passes, it is invalidated by the court.
— While the result may not be the type of sweeping affirmation that Democrats got in last year’s elections, it would still be a surprise if the vote fails.
— Last year’s attorney general contest may provide a template for the results, with key localities such as Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Stafford County standing out as places the “no” side will want to carry in order to spring an upset.
— If the voters approve the map, we would rate 4 seats that are currently held by Republicans as at least Leans Democratic.
— Aside from the Virginia vote, where Democrats stand to gain, there are a couple of shoes left to drop in the 2026 mid-decade redistricting saga that could benefit Republicans.

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                            April 15, 2026Little Kids, Big Government By John Stossel
   Child care got expensive -- more than $13,000 per child, per year.  
April 15, 2026Presidential Downballot Losses: An Updated History and a Look Ahead to Trump’s Second Term By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Since World War II, presidents have consistently presided over losses for their party in downballot offices—in the Senate, the House, governorships, and state legislatures. This is an indication of “thermostatic” public opinion, in which a decisive fraction of the electorate becomes disenchanted with the party in power and punishes them in down-ballot contests.
— President Joe Biden lost ground in the Senate, the House, and in state legislative seats. But unusually among postwar presidents, Biden escaped losses in governorships and state legislative chamber majorities controlled. In addition, Biden’s losses in the other three downballot categories were more modest than the postwar average.
— Biden’s pattern of modest down-ballot losses echoes the record of Donald Trump during his first term—setbacks, but muted ones. One possible reason: Intensifying partisan polarization, which has made voters less likely than in the past to consider voting for the other party, effectively dampening the potential for large downballot pendulum swings against the president’s party.
— Trump hasn’t faced a midterm election in his second term yet, but he has already experienced one gubernatorial flip and many flipped state legislative seats.

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                            April 14, 2026Pope vs. President Is a Fight Everyone Loses By Daniel McCarthy
        President Trump and Pope Leo are in a war of words right now -- when they should be allies, not enemies.

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                            April 14, 2026Prices Controls Will Deny Millions of Americans Credit Cards By Stephen Moore
        There's a famous scene in the movie "The Graduate" in which a young Dustin Hoffman receives this one-word bit of career advice from a businessman: "plastics."