Autumn is a season of colorful falling leaves, crisp temperatures, and upcoming holidays. While cooler days and nights may be blamed on climate change, and the holidays will be less merry due to supply chain problems, inflation, and vaccine mandate induced worker shortages, President Biden’s approval numbers are falling faster than the yellow and orange leaves still on the trees.
State legislative special elections provide an interesting index of partisan sentiment these days. That wasn't so in the late 20th century, when clever local candidates and notables often got voters to cross party lines. But in this century of increasing partisan polarization and straight-ticket voting, local special elections are a proxy for opinion on national issues.
Before the NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels this week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin took a side trip to Georgia and Ukraine.
— The vote count in California is finally done, and there were some noticeable trends in the results.
— While the recall election largely lined up with the 2018 gubernatorial result, some notable changes are evident when comparing last month’s vote to other recent statewide races.
— That the Democrats performed very well in that race even in the midst of Joe Biden’s still ongoing slide in popularity is an interesting data point, but it’s just a single one that may not be confirmed by looming statewide races in more competitive states, such as Virginia.
There's so much negative news these days. I was glad to see that a new podcast, "American Optimist," features good things that are coming.
Back in early 2016, when Larry Kudlow and I suggested that then-presidential candidate Donald Trump propose a 20% business tax rate for U.S. companies (down from the highest in the world rate of 35%), he enthusiastically endorsed this "America First" policy -- not because he loved corporate America but because he realized that as long as small and large American companies were paying the highest tax rates, jobs and factories would continue to move offshore.
"Extraordinary, isn't it? I've been hearing all about COP," said the queen to the duchess of Cornwall. "Still don't know who is coming. ... We only know about people who are not coming. ... It's really irritating when they talk but they don't do."
As his two terms as New York's mayor approach their end, and long after his presidential campaign ended with a whimper, Bill de Blasio has chimed in with one last act of destruction: a proposal to end the public schools' entry-by-exam gifted and talented program for first graders.
"When sorrows come," said King Claudius, "they come not single spies but in battalions." As the king found out. So it seems with President Joe Biden, who must be asking himself the question Merle Haggard asked:
— In the closely-watched Virginia gubernatorial race, Glenn Youngkin (R) is keeping it close with Terry McAuliffe (D), in part because he now enjoys some of the advantages that Democrats enjoyed in Virginia during Donald Trump’s presidency.
— Though the McAuliffe campaign has worked relentlessly to tie Youngkin to Trump, an unpopular figure in the commonwealth who has endorsed Youngkin several times, President Biden’s weakened approval ratings weigh on Democrats. Congressional Democrats’ lack of action on big-item legislation, specifically on infrastructure and social spending, also seems to be dampening enthusiasm among their rank-and-file voters.
— The down-ballot races will probably be linked closely with the top of the ticket, with the state House of Delegates up for grabs in addition to the other statewide offices.
— While early voting is down a good deal compared to last year’s presidential race, as expected, it is hard to draw firm conclusions from these totals because the lion’s share of Virginians have traditionally voted on Election Day, aside from last year during the pandemic.
America remains bound by often extreme pandemic restrictions.
With each passing week, it looks like World War III -- between America and China -- is coming sooner than we think. It's not going to be fought with bullets or aircraft carriers, although the Chinese are building up their military in an aggressive and threatening way.
Last Friday, in a triumph for transnationalism, 136 nations, including the U.S., agreed to mandate a global corporate income tax for all nations that will not be allowed to fall below 15%.
Monday, four dozen Chinese military aircraft flew into Taiwan's air defense zone, climaxing a weekend of provocations that saw nearly 150 sorties of China-based fighters and bombers.
Here's a jarring thought: Most political analysts, and most political strategists for our two political parties, have been operating off flawed data and flawed assumptions. The result has been one political surprise after another, and the election of the two most unsatisfactory presidents, in the minds of many voters, since Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan in the 1850s.
— Joe Biden and Donald Trump voters feel strongly but in opposite directions on the topic of discrimination, with Biden voters expressing concern about discrimination against minorities, while Trump voters worry that discrimination against whites will increase significantly in the next few years. (see Table 1 below)
— Whereas Biden voters are animated by racial and social justice concerns, Trump voters fear they will suffer personally, socially, culturally, and economically from the effects of immigration. (see Tables 2 and 3 below)
— These conflicted attitudes yield major policy divisions. When asked which policy areas concern them most, Biden voters identify with combatting systemic racism and addressing racial diversity. Whereas Biden voters prioritize social justice concerns, Trump voters do not. In fact, across the almost 50 national issues and areas of personal concern surveyed (some of which are noted below), Trump voters are far and away primarily focused on one particular issue: immigration. (see Table 4 below)
— Cluster analysis reveals that while many voters are essentially closed off to direct appeals to compromise at this time in part because of their strong views on immigration, there are voters who are concerned about immigration but are also potentially more persuadable on this topic. They are open to messaging and policies that balance their interests with those of immigrants, helping them feel more safe and secure.
Jim Caruso, CEO of Flying Dog Brewery, calls his business a "First Amendment brewery." That's because he keeps going to court to defend beer labels.
While the greens in America, including their champion zealot, President Joe Biden, howl their primal screams over climate change, the rest of the world is turning to coal. The dark stuff. The satanic fuel. But it's back big-time across the globe.
"We've got the president of the United States on our side," said Sen. Bernie Sanders Sunday on ABC's "This Week."
— Belief in conspiracy theories is most consistently correlated with Biden and Trump voters who favor secession.
— The majority of citizens who voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the last election, when combined, believe in at least one of the conspiracy theories (43% of Biden voters and 90% of Trump voters).
— But while the percentage of Trump voters who ascribe to these conspiracies significantly outpaces that of Biden voters, conspiracy-believing Biden voters are more likely to say blue states should secede from the union than are conspiracy-believing Trump voters likely to say red states should secede.
— Additionally, several other authoritarian beliefs are significantly more prevalent among voters who support secession.
