The defining moment of the 2024 presidential campaign, it can be argued, came almost exactly two years ago, on Sunday, Oct. 20, when then-former President Donald Trump traded his suit coat for a yellow apron and worked the fry station and the drive-thru window at a McDonald's.
— In what has become a blue 2026 midterm environment, Democrats are poised to make gains in the state legislatures, according to our second and final handicapping of state legislature control before the 2026 elections.
— In all, 15 chambers are competitive. Befitting the dynamics of the first midterm election of President Donald Trump’s second term, the Republicans are currently playing defense to a disproportionate degree.
— The GOP holds 9 of the competitive chambers, while the Democrats hold 3. Both Alaska chambers are controlled by a cross-partisan alliance, while Minnesota currently has a tied chamber. Among the 8 Toss-up chambers, 5 are currently held by the GOP.
— With this assessment, we are shifting the ratings of 10 chambers, each of them in the Democrats’ direction.
— In several legislative chambers controlled by Republicans, Democrats are hoping to ride a blue wave and break GOP supermajorities even as we do not expect them to truly challenge for the actual majority in these states.
— Rating changes this week leave us with five Senate Toss-ups, all in Republican-held seats.
— Republicans now need four of these five Toss-ups (Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas), although all of these save the Pine Tree State are naturally red states where it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Republicans hold on.
— Other changes involve races that are more on the periphery of the core battleground but merit watching for possible upsets or surprising trends.
Imagine getting a bill from your local government for $900,000 because they see a greenhouse on your property and just assume you're growing marijuana without a permit.
Political pros will remember that a dozen or so years ago, the Democrats produced a famous (or infamous) TV ad showing a man wheeling an elderly lady in a wheelchair up a path to an overlook on a mountain. At the end of the ad, the man pushes the woman out of her chair and off the cliff.
You can't be cruel to a toaster; inanimate objects don't feel pain.
Why is populism, broadly defined, on the brink of historic victories around the world, while populism in the form of President Donald Trump's Republican Party is poised to lose one or both houses of Congress in the United States?
Young Americans take pride in being socially progressive.
— Of the Democrats’ red state Senate targets, Alaska may be the most promising, and we are moving the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
— For the first time all cycle, Republicans now need to win more of our Toss-ups to hold the Senate than Democrats need to win in order to flip it.
— Other rating changes come in the Alaska and Oregon gubernatorial races, which both land in Leans Democratic from opposite directions, while South Carolina’s Senate election moves from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
— While we don’t expect this to happen, Republicans may not win a single House race this year in a district that Kamala Harris carried in 2024.
— As it stands now, we think Democrats are favored in every Harris-won seat but two: Rep. Mike Lawler (R, NY-17) is in a Toss-up race, and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) is in Leans Republican.
— We have four rating changes this week, including upgrading Democratic chances in the open NE-2, one of the few Harris-won districts Republicans carried in 2024.
In nearly every way, Americans have more material wealth, better health, better housing and more of just about everything than ever before. Not just the rich, but nearly everyone.
Latin America is turning right, and it's a vindication for President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Haven't we seen this movie before? Voters, weary of a Republican president whose foreign or domestic policies don't seem to be delivering as promised, seem on the verge of a massive rejection of his party.
— In November, 39 states will have at least one measure on the ballot for voters to consider, and many have multiple measures.
— The top issues this year will include elections and redistricting, along with taxes and transgender policy.
— Some issues that have been big in previous cycles will be relatively muted in November, notably abortion rights.
Legalized homicide is now the cause of one out of every 20 Canadian deaths.
I've always argued that the easiest way for families to gauge the health of the economy is to check the daily gas price. Drivers see the 50-foot-high signs in every community in America. They stare us right in the face.
From the clutter of midterm election poll results, it's possible sometimes to see new patterns of political support emerging.
Schools are ending gifted and talented programs. They will no longer separate kids by ability.
