If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

November 6, 2024

The Best of Life By John Stossel

I write this on Election Day.

November 5, 2024

Thank God for the Electoral College By Stephen Moore

It seems that as more and more time goes by, my appreciation for the ingeniousness of our Founding Fathers elevates.

November 5, 2024

How Politics Hasn't Changed Since Jefferson By Daniel McCarthy

The most extreme accusations Democrats and Republicans hurl at one another today would be familiar to the Founding Fathers.

White letter R on blue background
November 5, 2024

Our Final 2024 Ratings By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

We mentioned a few weeks ago that we misplaced our Crystal Ball. As an update, we regret to say that we still have not found it. So no final ratings this year. Have fun on Tuesday!

OK, fine, we’ll give it a try.

November 1, 2024

Who Will Make the Last Mistake in This Flawed Campaign? By Michael Barone

"The only garbage I see out there is his supporters," said President Joe Biden on Tuesday evening, referencing a comedian's comment at former President Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, as Vice President Kamala Harris delivered on the Ellipse, visible from the White House windows, what her campaign has described as her "closing argument" speech of her campaign.

October 30, 2024

Less Than a Week Until the Big Day – Where are the Polls? By Brian C. Joondeph

Election 2024 is less than a week away. Media reports, particularly on social media, are in a gaslighting frenzy of fake news and misinformation. It is hard to know what to believe and what is nonsense. Opinion polls, while hardly perfect, at least provide a quantitative peek behind the electoral curtain.

October 30, 2024

Promoting Panic for Cash By John Stossel

The world must be getting so much worse!

October 29, 2024

Dead Wrong Again -- Nobel Economists Put Partisanship Over Economic Common Sense By Stephen Moore

You may have heard that last week 24 Nobel economists wrote that Vice President Kamala Harris' economic plan would be better for America than the Trump agenda. The joint letter was spearheaded by the hyperpolitical Joseph Stiglitz. Yes, the same Joe Stiglitz who infamously flew to Caracas to endorse Hugo Chavez's economic policies in 2007.

October 29, 2024

Kamala Harris Targets Married Women By Daniel McCarthy

Kamala Harris is pioneering a new divide-and-conquer strategy to win the White House: She's dividing families -- encouraging wives to split from husbands at the ballot box.

October 25, 2024

The Democratic Party's Bad October By Michael Barone

Was it just a coincidence that Vice President Kamala Harris showed up, 15 minutes late, to be interviewed by Fox News' Bret Baier a day before Nate Silver's poll aggregation website showed her chances of winning the election slipping below 50%? Probably not.

White letter R on blue background
October 24, 2024

Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House seats at least leaning Republican, 209 at least leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups.

— Just like in the presidential race, there’s still no favorite in the House.

— We also are moving Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R-NE) race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, as the Republican cavalry has had to ride in to help her in her contest against independent Dan Osborn.

October 23, 2024

Trump-mentum Peaking with the Autumn Leaves By Brian C. Joondeph

Election Day is rapidly approaching, and Donald Trump is teaching a master class in campaigning and peaking at the right time. Fortunately, he is still the Republican candidate despite efforts to remove him from the ballot through lawfare and several failed assassination attempts.

October 23, 2024

Play Time/Jail Time By John Stossel

What does it take for a parent to get arrested?

October 22, 2024

Vibes Turn Bad for Kamala Harris By Daniel McCarthy

Kamala Harris is running a campaign against herself.

October 22, 2024

Will Blacks and Hispanics Vote Their Pocketbooks? Trump Should Hope So! By Stephen Moore

In the one debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the vice president attacked Trump for having a racist record, citing his statements in response to the protests In Charlottesville back in 2017.

October 18, 2024

Are Minorities Voting Increasingly Like Normies? By Michael Barone

Not everything significant politically is happening just in the target states.

October 16, 2024

Deceitful Promises By John Stossel

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris keep making new promises.

October 15, 2024

Kamala Harris Wants America to Have the World's Highest Death Tax By Stephen Moore

Here is something no one in the media is reporting as Vice President Kamala Harris continues to duck and weave like Muhammad Ali in the ring to avoid any questions about her economic plan.

October 11, 2024

What the Census Can Tell Us About Swing States By Michael Barone

Jonathan Draeger, reporter for RealClearPolitics, wrote Tuesday that "the 2024 presidential contest couldn't be tighter." Unless, of course, it turns out not to be nearly as close as this season's run of polls suggests it is.

White letter R on blue background
October 10, 2024

Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In North Carolina, Kamala Harris seems likely to gain in suburban Cabarrus County but may have to watch rural counties like Wilson.

— While it is not the most likely case, two Georgia counties that have trended in the opposite direction, Fayette and Sumter, could both conceivably flip.

— While Phoenix’s Maricopa County dominates Arizona, raw vote margins in a trio of its other large counties have proved predictive.

— In Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno predominate.