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Political Commentary

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January 30, 2024

Trump's Map to the White House By Daniel McCarthy

   In 2020, Joe Biden won three states by less than 1 point: Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

January 26, 2024

DeSantis Withdrawal Paved the Way for Likely Trump-Biden Rematch By Michael Barone

What went wrong with Ron DeSantis' presidential campaign? You can list many arguable mistakes, as you can with any campaign, and you can add, as some reporters have, that the candidate was not likable or good at retail campaigning -- which mostly reflected reporters' personal dislike of DeSantis or resentment at his refusal to schmooze what he considered unfriendly press.

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January 25, 2024

The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting By J. Miles Coleman

In vintage Louisiana fashion, Democrats gain a second Louisiana seat.


— Earlier this week, Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) signed a new House map that creates a second Black-majority seat in the state.

— The new district, stretching from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, would have favored Joe Biden by 20 points in 2020 and is Safe Democratic.

— Former Rep. Cleo Fields (D) seems to be a frontrunner for the new seat, and, if elected, would return to Congress after a nearly 30 year absence.

— Aside from its partisan implications, the new map could be interpreted as Landry’s attempt at punishing Rep. Garret Graves (R, LA-6).

January 24, 2024

The Most Dangerous Conservative By John Stossel

The New York Times put Charles Murray on the cover of its Sunday Magazine, calling him "The Most Dangerous Conservative."

January 23, 2024

Will 'Lawfare' Take Trump Off the Ballot? By Daniel McCarthy

The biggest threat to the Constitution in 2024 is the "lawfare" being waged against Donald Trump -- and the Supreme Court is as much its target as Trump is.

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January 23, 2024

The REAL Story of the Two Americas By Stephen Moore

For the past 30 years or so, the Left has invented a narrative that there are two Americas: a group of very super-rich people (the one-percenters) who have prospered over the past several decades, and everyone else who has gotten poorer. It's a fairy-tale narrative because almost all Americans have seen financial progress. The median household income adjusted for inflation rose by more than 40% since 1984.

January 19, 2024

No Gary Hart Bounce for DeSantis or Haley By Michael Barone

Forty years ago, when Walter Mondale won 49% in Iowa's Democratic caucuses, far ahead of Gary Hart's 16%, the media spotlight nonetheless immediately focused.

With the help of a brilliant spot by consultant Ray Strother showing him tossing a hatchet into a tree, Hart went on to win the New Hampshire primary eight days later, 37% to 28%, and he suddenly became the favorite.

January 17, 2024

Afraid to Speak By John Stossel

Before anyone was "canceled" for saying a "wrong" thing, actress Emily Blunt and I feared speaking.

January 16, 2024

New Bank Regulations Will Hurt Small Businesses and Middle-Class Borrowers the Most

   The rapid succession of bank failures last spring clearly spooked federal regulators at the FDIC, the Federal Reserve Board and bank depositors.

The bad decision-making at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank caused the regulators to implement emergency life preserver measures to banks and conjured up memories of the 2008 financial crisis.

January 12, 2024

Democracy Not at Risk, but Not Operating Optimally By Michael Barone

Is democracy at risk this election year?

January 11, 2024

Migration or Invasion? By Brian Joondeph

Illegal migrants have been entering America through our southern border since the days of Ronald Reagan and before, even during the tenure of Donald “Build the Wall” Trump.

But in the past three years of the Biden presidency, the numbers have skyrocketed.

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January 11, 2024

Previewing the Iowa Caucus By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch.


— Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season.

— The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is under the most pressure to perform, as he has basically bet his entire campaign on Iowa.

— To the extent frontrunning Donald Trump shows weakness, look for it in places like the Des Moines suburbs as well as a couple of counties with major universities.

— Meanwhile, a quartet of counties in the state’s northwestern corner should give us some indicators of where the Republicans’ strongest religious conservatives are in this race.

January 10, 2024

Flooded With Good Intentions By John Stossel

   Sen. John Kennedy is upset because Sen. Rand Paul wants to limit federal flood insurance.

January 9, 2024

'The Sopranos' at 25: A New World Tragedy By Daniel McCarthy

   "The Sopranos" debuted 25 years ago, but what makes it a masterpiece is how much older its themes are.

January 9, 2024

Blue States Just Can't Stop Taxing By Stephen Moore

   The latest Census Bureau data on population changes in America should have been a wake-up call to lawmakers in blue states and cities.The Census data provide even further evidence that "soak the rich" tax policies have incited a blue-state meltdown.

January 5, 2024

Our Inevitably Negative Politics By Michael Barone

To explain the latest young generation's pessimism, Washington Post opinion writer Taylor Lorenz took to what was then called Twitter last February to lament "the fact that we're living in a late stage capitalist hellscape during an ongoing deadly

pandemic w record wealth inequality, 0 social safety net/job security, as climate change cooks the world."

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January 4, 2024

The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year By Kyle Kondik


— Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election anyone’s game.

— We still anticipate a close and competitive election between Biden and former President Trump, whose dominance in the GOP primary race has endured as the Iowa caucus looms.

January 3, 2024

Are you a MAKER or a TAKER? By John Stossel

Politicians are often takers.

They take our money (and freedom) in the name of achieving goals they rarely achieve.

Elon Musk and Sen. Elizabeth Warren may be the best examples of maker and taker. They're the stars of my video this week.

Warren shouts, "Tax the rich!"

January 2, 2024

Trump, Biden and a Fight for the Heart By Daniel McCarthy

As an election year dawns, Republicans and Democrats should stop to reflect on why our politics seems so stagnant.

December 29, 2023

Startling Surprises in Latest Census Numbers By Michael Barone

How's America doing? Government statisticians provide mounds of data that provide useful clues, and none more so than the Census Bureau's estimates of population, announced in the holiday weeks at the end of each calendar year.

The latest numbers measure the estimated population of each state as of last July 1 as compared to the constitutionally required decennial census dated April 1, 2020.