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Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

February 28, 2025

Getting to Denmark By Michael Barone

Sooner or later, The New York Times catches on to the news. In the case of immigration policy, the news it has caught up with is that mass immigration, legal and illegal, from less-developed countries is politically toxic.

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February 27, 2025

House District Loyalty in the Trump Era By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In presidential elections since 2016, only 28 of the 435 current House districts have backed nominees of different parties.

— In next year’s House elections, districts that have been Electoral College bellwethers since 2016 could play a large role in determining whether Democrats can recapture the majority.

— Still, Republicans have some potential offensive targets in districts that have been national popular vote bellwethers.

— While House Democrats find themselves in a similar overall situation now as they did in 2017, the general contours of the House battlefield are different.

February 26, 2025

Does Everyone Hate What Trump is Doing? Far from It By Brian C. Joondeph

On social media, one might get the impression that Americans who voted for President Donald Trump now feel buyer’s remorse.

February 26, 2025

Trump Is Right -- Fire Bad Federal Employees and Reward Good Ones By Stephen Moore

   All in Washington are acting like their hair is on fire in response to the Department of Government Efficiency requirement that federal employees list what they accomplished last week. Many are acting like they can't think of anything, like they may need to "phone a friend" to get an answer.

February 26, 2025

Dumb Things Socialists Promise By John Stossel

Socialism is popular!

February 25, 2025

How Trump Makes Europe Stronger By Daniel McCarthy

   President Donald Trump has a plan to save Europe, and the results of Sunday's election in Germany show it's working.

February 21, 2025

The Policies of European Elites End in Tears By Michael Barone

If you follow these things closely, you may have seen a clip of the chairman of the Munich Security Conference breaking down in tears, unable to speak any further while reflecting on Vice President JD Vance's speech there. This breakdown is remarkable because the chairman, Christoph Heusgen, is not a minor apparatchik but a sophisticated and knowledgeable official who was former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's national security adviser from 2005 to 2017.

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February 20, 2025

Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages.

— However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval.

— Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies.

February 19, 2025

What's On Your Plate? By John Stossel

   I tried meat grown in a lab.

February 18, 2025

The Civil Service's Partisanship Problem By Daniel McCarthy

   Here's a dirty secret about the federal government many Americans are just learning:

February 18, 2025

Get Ready for America's 'Little Tech' Revolution By Stephen Moore

The spectacular dominance of America's Magnificent Seven tech firms -- with $1 trillion-plus market caps -- has been a marvel to behold and a genuine source of American pride. This is a theme that both President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have in celebration of American business prowess.

February 14, 2025

Why Were Hopes of the 1990s Dashed? By Michael Barone

As one who shared the hope, after the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, that representative government, guaranteed liberties and global capitalism laced with some measure of welfare state protections would spread across the globe, I naturally look back over the intervening long generation and ask what went wrong.

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February 13, 2025

Our Initial Senate Ratings: Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Majority By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While Republicans, who will be defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026, may have the political environment working against them next year, they are still favored to retain the chamber.

— Part of the reason for this is that Democrats hold two of our three initial Toss-up races, Georgia and Michigan, while GOP-held North Carolina will likely see another hotly-contested Senate race.

— We are giving Maine’s Susan Collins (R) a degree of deference by starting her race as Leans Republican, although as the only Republican representing a Kamala Harris-won state, it is hard to see Democrats getting close to a majority without her seat.

— If Democrats were to be on track to regain the Senate by the end of the decade, they would almost certainly have to come out of the 2026 cycle with a net gain of seats.

February 12, 2025

The Power of Self-Interest By John Stossel

Politicians bash businesses.

February 11, 2025

What Kind of a Populist Is Elon Musk? By Daniel McCarthy

   Can the world's richest man be a populist?

February 7, 2025

Trump Rides the Vibes, for Better or Worse By Michael Barone

        After a flurry of activity -- the president's tariff threats and showdowns

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February 6, 2025

Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part Two: The Sun Belt By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala Harris gained in some fast-growing suburban counties, but it was not enough to cancel out the drift to Donald Trump elsewhere in those states.

— Arizona was Trump’s strongest of the presidential Toss-up states in part because its border counties continued to shift strongly in his direction.

— Trump carried Nevada because he was the best-performing Republican in Clark County (Las Vegas) in decades, although Washoe County (Reno) narrowly stuck with Harris.

February 4, 2025

What if Trump Finishes His Presidency by Easter? By Brian C. Joondeph

President Donald Trump is off to a blazing start, having accomplished more in two weeks than most administrations achieve in months or even years. At this blistering pace, what happens if he finishes his presidency by Easter?

By finished, I don’t mean that he is forced from office through impeachment or assassination, but he gets so much done in his first three months that nothing is left to do.

February 4, 2025

Can Trump Win Trade Wars Before They Start? By Daniel McCarthy

        Donald Trump knows exactly what he's doing with tariffs.

February 4, 2025

America's 21st-Century Sputnik Moment Has Arrived By Stephen Moore

        Just how much longer will American parents, their kids, business leaders