Previewing the 2026 Secretary of State Races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Next year, 26 states will hold elections for secretary of state. Currently, the GOP holds 26 secretary of state offices to 21 for the Democrats. Three states do not have a secretary of state.

— Our analysis suggests that five secretary of state races this year are currently competitive, including four in the Toss-up category. Democrats will largely be playing defense: All four Toss-up seats are currently held by Democrats.

— During the last election cycle that had this many secretary of state races, 2022, election denialism was a major issue, and in several purple states it helped Democrats defeat Republican nominees aligned with Donald Trump’s allegations of election fraud. With Trump winning back the presidency in 2024 and constitutionally ineligible to run for president again in 2028, it’s unclear whether this factor will remain as salient for voters in 2026.

The early line on secretary of state races

Next year, 26 states will hold elections for secretary of state. In many states, this office handles a hodgepodge of noncontroversial duties, but most of them also oversee a more politically contentious portfolio: election administration.

As has been the case in recent years, Republicans hold an edge nationally in secretary of state seats: Today, the GOP holds 26 secretary of state offices to 21 for the Democrats. (This counts Pennsylvania in the Republican column; Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro appointed Al Schmidt, a Republican who broke with President Donald Trump, to the post.) Looking just at states where the secretary of state is elected rather than appointed, the GOP has a 19-16 edge. Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah do not have a secretary of state.

I have handicapped state secretary of state races for over a decade for Governing, the Cook Political Report, and, since the 2022 cycle, the Crystal Ball.

In this, my first assessment of the 2025-26 secretary of state races, five states have competitive contests: four Toss-ups, plus a Leans Republican race.

Democrats will largely be playing defense: All four Toss-up seats are currently held by Democrats and, mirroring the national partisan split, all four are in states that were considered presidential battlegrounds in 2024.

The four Toss-up secretary of state races are in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. The Leans Republican race is in Georgia.

The remaining states that have secretary of state races this cycle include nine Safe Republican seats, three Likely Republican seats, one Likely Democratic seat, and eight Safe Democratic seats.

In a sign that secretary of state races continue to be considered political stepping stones, at least six current occupants are giving up their post to run for another office, including two for governor and one for attorney general.

A big question mark for 2026 is whether election denialism will continue to be as salient as it was in 2022, the last election cycle that had this many secretary of state races. This issue helped Democrats win secretary of state offices in several purple states, often aided by Republicans’ decisions to nominate candidates aligned with Donald Trump’s allegations of election fraud.

With Trump winning back the presidency in 2024 and constitutionally ineligible to run for president again in 2028, it’s unclear whether this factor will remain as salient in 2026. If 2026 is more of a “neutral” environment—and if battleground state Republicans shy away from nominating these types of candidates again—then Democratic incumbents in these offices could be vulnerable.

On the other hand, the historical pattern for midterm elections is that parties in control of the White House tend to fare poorly. This should give a boost to Democrats.

A caveat: It’s still early in the cycle, and in many of the competitive races, primary fields and challengers are not yet set. So changes are expected when we check back on these races over the next year and a half.

Here’s our breakdown of the 2025-26 secretary of state races, with thumbnail descriptions of each contest as it stands today.

SAFE REPUBLICAN

Alabama: Open seat (Wes Allen, R, is running for lieutenant governor)

This open seat race will almost certainly be decided in the Republican primary between Andrew Sorrell, the sitting state auditor and a former state representative, and Caroleene Dobson, an attorney, rancher, and unsuccessful 2024 congressional candidate. No Democrat is in the race yet, and it’s doubtful that any Democrat could make it a genuine race in this solidly Republican state.

Arkansas: Open seat (Cole Jester, R, is running for state land commissioner)

Under the state constitution, Jester—as an appointee to the secretary of state’s office—cannot run for a full term. Instead, three Republicans are seeking the open seat in 2026: state Sen. Kim Hammer, Judge Cathy Hardin Harrison from Miller County (Texarkana), and Republican activist Bryan Norris. Hammer and Harrison are probably the frontrunners in what will likely be a low-turnout primary; Hammer may draw more MAGA support while Harrison draws more establishment backing.

Whoever wins the GOP nomination will be all but assured of winning next November. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Arkansas in more than a decade, and this pattern is highly unlikely to change in 2026.

Idaho: Phil McGrane, R

McGrane narrowly made it through the 2022 GOP primary against Dorothy Moon, then a legislator who now chairs the state GOP. McGrane had been a career county elections official and was considered an establishment Republican aligned with GOP Gov. Brad Little; Moon came from the party’s MAGA wing.

No anti-McGrane candidacy has emerged yet, and his tenure has been largely non-controversial. Still, there’s time for a MAGA-driven primary opposition to emerge. No Democratic contenders have surfaced so far.

Kansas: Open seat (Scott Schwab, R, is running for governor)

Two state House Republicans have declared for this open seat: Reps. Pat Proctor and Ken Rahjes. While Democrats are making runs at other Kansas statewide offices, secretary of state doesn’t appear to be near the top of the party’s list.

Nebraska: Bob Evnen, R

Evnen is the prohibitive favorite for another term.

North Dakota: Michael Howe, R

Howe has earned high marks and faces no opposition from either party; he should be a lock for another term.

South Carolina: Mark Hammond, R

Hammond should be on a glide path to a new term; no Democratic candidate is on the horizon.

South Dakota: Monae Johnson, R

Johnson won the Republican nomination in 2022 by defeating the GOP incumbent, Steve Barnett, in a convention vote. She won’t have trouble from Democrats next November, but a convention challenge is possible, and how it could play out is unpredictable.

Wyoming: Chuck Gray, R

Gray will have no trouble winning a new term in solidly red Wyoming.

LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Ohio: Open seat (Frank LaRose, R, is running for state auditor)

Republicans are lining up behind state Treasurer Robert Sprague. Democrats are high on Bryan Hambley, an oncologist making his first run for office. The state has leaned increasingly Republican in recent cycles, but that will be tested in the 2026 midterm; if there’s a reversion, a non-politician Democrat would have at least a theoretical chance.

Iowa: Paul Pate, R

Pate already has a Democratic opponent, Ryan Peterman, a Naval Academy alum and helicopter pilot making his first run for office. (Peterman has worked as a legislative fellow for New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen) This race has the potential to become more competitive if Peterman proves his mettle as a candidate. Pate is currently serving in his third straight term in the office and fourth overall (he served from 1995 to 1999 in the job and won it again in 2014, 2018, and 2022).

Indiana: Diego Morales, R

Morales won the seat in 2022 after keeping the Republican incumbent from being renominated at a state convention. Morales is from the MAGA wing of the party, and that has prompted tensions with more establishment-minded members of the GOP, fueled by a string of controversies including his acquisition of a luxury car, international travel, and the hiring of family members.

Morales already has intra-party competition for 2026 from David Shelton, the clerk of Knox County (Vincennes). But with his backing from the MAGA wing, Morales should have a leg up in the convention to win renomination. He’s known as an aggressive retail campaigner, he should be well funded, and his base of voters is considered solid.

While statewide Democratic candidates have been hard-pressed to win in Indiana in recent years, many in the party are optimistic about Beau Bayh, one of two twin sons of former Democratic Gov. and Sen. Evan Bayh and grandson of Democratic Sen. Birch Bayh.

Beau Bayh is a Marine veteran (his brother Nick served in the Army). Bayh hasn’t yet committed to running for secretary of state, and it’s possible he could choose to run instead against GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz. But with a divided Republican Party, a Bayh candidacy, if it happens, gives Democrats a shot at this seat. If Bayh passes on the race, then Morales will have a much easier shot at winning reelection.

LEANS REPUBLICAN

Georgia: Brad Raffensperger, R

Raffensperger—whose efforts to combat election denialism after the 2020 election won him cross-partisan support as well as the animus of the GOP’s MAGA wing—is eligible to run for another term, but he hasn’t said whether he will. He’s considered a possible contender for governor or Senate instead.

If Raffensperger runs again for secretary of state, he’d be favored in the general election. But he’d have to get past two other Republicans who have already announced their candidacies: state Rep. Tim Fleming, who previously served as chief of staff to Gov. Brian Kemp, and construction company owner Kelvin King. (King is married to Janelle King, one of the state election board members who pushed for Trump-friendly changes.)

A wild card is the recent collapse of First Liberty Building and Loan, which is under investigation by the FBI and the Securities and Exchange Commission as a possible Ponzi scheme. The institution was founded by Brant Frost IV, a prominent Republican going back to his managing of Pat Robertson’s 1988 presidential campaign. Several Frost family members hold positions in the state GOP, and the family has a political action committee that has contributed money to candidates in Georgia. Raffensperger has called on candidates who took money from the PAC to return it.

No Democrat has announced a candidacy yet; there are lots of moving pieces not just in this race but in others in Georgia, including the Senate and gubernatorial races. But this contest starts at Leans Republican given the GOP’s recent strength downballot even as Democrats have had success in federal races.

TOSS-UP

Arizona: Adrian Fontes, D

Fontes was one of several Democrats to win high-profile secretary of state races in 2022 against Republicans who supported Trump-aligned characterizations of electoral fraud. So far, the Republicans have one candidate in the race: state Rep. Alexander Kolodin, a staunchly conservative member of the Arizona Freedom Caucus. It remains to be seen whether 2026 will be more like the 2022 environment in which Fontes won, or more like 2024, when Trump flipped the state red.

A sidelight: In 2026, Arizonans will elect the state’s first-ever lieutenant governor. Historically, the secretary of state was first in line to fill a gubernatorial vacancy, making the position unusually sought-after. Since 1988, three Arizona governors have been elevated from secretary of state: Democrat Rose Mofford and Republicans Jane Dee Hull and Jan Brewer. The new lieutenant governorship could reduce interest in this contest compared to past elections.

Wisconsin: Sarah Godlewski, D

This race is still developing because Democratic Gov. Tony Evers recently announced that he will not seek another term. Godlewski, who was appointed secretary of state by Evers, recently suggested she was looking at running for lieutenant governor. She previously served as state treasurer and ran unsuccessfully in the 2022 Democratic primary for Senate.

No Republican names have surfaced yet; nor have any Democratic names in the event that Godlewski runs for lieutenant governor. Given this uncertainty, plus Wisconsin’s closely divided electorate, this race starts in the Toss-up category.

A reminder: Elections in Wisconsin, unlike most states, are not overseen by the secretary of state’s office. Doug La Follette (D) had served in this position for 40 straight years before resigning in 2023. His resignation led to Evers’s appointment of Godlewski to the post.

Michigan: Open seat (Jocelyn Benson, D, is running for governor)

Michigan chooses its nominees for secretary of state at party conventions. The Democrats have two contenders so far.

The party’s modest frontrunner is Barb Byrum, the clerk for Ingham County (Lansing) and a former state representative. Byrum is the daughter of Dianne Byrum, a longtime Michigan state legislator who narrowly lost a 2000 U.S. House race to Mike Rogers (who a quarter century later is the likely GOP nominee for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat). The other Democratic candidate is Deputy Secretary of State Aghogho Edevbie.

So far there is no announced Republican candidate. The GOP is fully expected to contest the race, but the question is whether the eventual nominee comes from the election-denial wing of the party or is someone more acceptable to a broader swath of the electorate. Given Michigan’s purple-state status and the national focus on its open-seat Senate and gubernatorial races, we’ll start this contest in Toss-up, with future changes possible based on who the Republicans nominate.

Nevada: Cisco Aguilar, D

Aguilar is widely presumed to be running for reelection. He doesn’t seem to have any obvious vulnerabilities, but given Nevada’s status as a purple state and the importance of the position in overseeing elections, the GOP is expected to look for a contender. The appeal of the candidate they find will determine whether this race remains in the Toss-up category.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

No races.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

Minnesota: Steve Simon, D

Simon is well-placed to win a new term as secretary, especially if the GOP can’t find a credible opponent, which they haven’t yet. A wild card, though, would be a decision by Democratic Gov. Tim Walz not to seek a new term, in which case Simon could run for governor. If that happened, the secretary of state seat would open up and would likely shift to a more competitive category on our list.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

California: Shirley Weber, D

Weber was appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, then won a term of her own in 2022. In solidly blue California, she should easily win a new term.

Colorado: Open seat (Jena Griswold, D, is running for attorney general)

Democrats have two credentialed candidates vying to succeed Griswold: Jefferson County Clerk Amanda Gonzalez and state Sen. Jessie Danielson. The GOP bench in Colorado is thin, leaving whoever wins the Democratic nomination in the driver’s seat for November.

Connecticut: Stephanie Thomas, D

Thomas is the heavy favorite to win a second term as secretary of state. She has no announced Democratic or Republican opposition.

Illinois: Alexi Giannoulias, D

Giannoulias should have no trouble winning another term. Two GOP activists are in the race, but neither is considered a threat to the incumbent.

Massachusetts: Bill Galvin, D

Galvin is an institution in Massachusetts politics, having won his first election as secretary of state in 1994. However, he could face a primary challenge.

New Mexico: Open seat (Maggie Toulouse Oliver, D, is term-limited) 

Democrats have three notable candidates competing to fill this open seat: Doña Ana County Clerk Amanda López Askin, Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark, and former state veterans services secretary Sonya Smith. Any of them would be favored over the Republican nominee, if the GOP can find a candidate.

Rhode Island: Gregg Amore, D

Amore, a history teacher, coach, and state representative before winning election as secretary of state in 2022, is likely to run for a second term and has no announced opposition from either party. He is the heavy favorite to win another term.

Vermont: Sarah Copeland Hanzas, D

Copeland Hanzas should be able to breeze to another term as secretary of state.

BONUS: GUBERNATORIAL RACES THAT COULD DETERMINE THE SECRETARY OF STATE

Eight states with gubernatorial elections this cycle give governors the power to appoint the secretary of state.

The two 2025 races—Virginia and New Jersey—are both at least somewhat competitive, with a reasonably strong possibility of a party switch in Virginia from Republican to Democratic.

The other states in this category are less competitive, with Republicans favored in Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas and Democrats favored in Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania.

In three states, the legislature chooses the secretary of state. New Hampshire (currently controlled by Republicans) and Maine (currently controlled by Democrats) could have competitive races for control of the legislature in 2026. Tennessee, meanwhile, is set to remain strongly Republican.

We will offer our initial 2026 state legislature control handicapping later this year.

Louis Jacobson is a Senior Columnist for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He is also the chief correspondent at the fact-checking website PolitiFact and is senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. He was senior author of the Almanac’s 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 editions and a contributing writer for the 2000 and 2004 editions.

See Other Political Commentary.

See Other Commentaries by Louis Jacobson.

Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.