If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Most Recent Releases

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February 8, 2024

The Race for the House, Part Two By Kyle Kondik

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans.

— Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider the race for the House to be a Toss-up overall.

— The NY-3 special remains highly competitive less than a week before the election.

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January 11, 2024

Previewing the Iowa Caucus By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season.

— The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is under the most pressure to perform, as he has basically bet his entire campaign on Iowa.

— To the extent frontrunning Donald Trump shows weakness, look for it in places like the Des Moines suburbs as well as a couple of counties with major universities.

— Meanwhile, a quartet of counties in the state’s northwestern corner should give us some indicators of where the Republicans’ strongest religious conservatives are in this race.

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January 4, 2024

The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election anyone’s game.

— We still anticipate a close and competitive election between Biden and former President Trump, whose dominance in the GOP primary race has endured as the Iowa caucus looms.

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November 30, 2023

Putting Biden’s Troubles with Young Voters in Perspective By Kyle Kondik

Youngest voters have been strongly Democratic in recent elections, but the president also has clear weaknesses with that group.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Recent 2024 presidential polling has shown President Biden performing poorly with young voters.

— The 18-29 voting bloc has been reliably Democratic leaning for at least the last several presidential elections.

— Biden’s weakness with young voters is not new, despite doing well among the group in the 2020 general election.

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November 16, 2023

Notes on the State of the 2023 Elections By Kyle Kondik

VA 2023 looks a lot like 2019; ads might help explain a PA oddity; Beshear and disaster relief.

Virginia result looked a lot like four years ago

Vote counts in Virginia are nearly final but not yet certified. There were no late changes to the topline result that seemed likeliest the morning after the election: Democrats won their barest possible majorities in both chambers: 51-49 in the state House of Delegates and 21-19 in the state Senate.

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November 9, 2023

Elections 2023: Democrats Enjoy a Strong Night By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

They score victories in five of the six key races we were watching, although off-year elections do not necessarily predict the following year.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Democrats won five of the six key races we were watching in Tuesday night’s elections, turning in a strong showing just a couple of days after a series of bad polls for President Joe Biden left some Democrats shook as the presidential race looms next year.

— The 2023 elections have limited predictive value, in large part because of the key differences between the Tuesday night results and what we should expect next year in the states we were watching.

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October 26, 2023

The Third Party Wild Card By Kyle Kondik

Recent non-major party vote strongest out west -- and not in the states likeliest to decide 2024.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Potentially weak major party nominees paired with a long list of third party candidates could lead to a higher-than-usual level of third party voting in 2024.

— Recent third party performance has generally been strongest in western states and weakest in the South.

— The states that are most likely to decide the 2024 election have not had high average third party voting this century.

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October 5, 2023

Trump and Biden Seek Historic Combined Sweep By Kyle Kondik

Despite weaknesses, they could be the first-ever pair of modern nominees to each win every nominating contest.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite weak overall favorability, Joe Biden and Donald Trump could combine for the strongest presidential nominating performance in modern history.

— Since the advent of the current nominating system in each party, which dates to the early 1970s, at least one of the two eventual major party nominees suffered at least some losses during the primary season.

— It is possible that Biden and Trump could both sweep every contest next year.

— Several nominating seasons came close to producing such a sweep, particularly in the 1996-2004 range.

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September 21, 2023

The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature, Part One By Kyle Kondik

Democratic presidential lean muted in lower-turnout legislative races, but political environment appears to be different than 2021.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In this year’s state legislative races in Virginia, Republicans are trying to do something that has become rare: forge a state government trifecta in a state that voted for the other party for president.

— At first blush, Democrats would appear to have a clear edge on the map, but in an off-year election, the key districts’ presidential voting patterns overstate how Democratic they are in these legislative races.

— While President Biden’s approval rating is actually worse than it was in November 2021, when Republicans scored victories in that year’s Virginia races, the political environment is likely better for Democrats now than it was back then.

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September 7, 2023

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two By Kyle Kondik

Trend from 1996-2020 shows a much larger partisan gap between bigger and smaller counties, with 2000 and 2016 as key contributors.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020.

— The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap.

— While there is nearly a 40-point difference between the top and bottom halves, the gap did not grow from 2016-2020.

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August 10, 2023

Ohio’s Issue 1 Smackdown By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The left scores another win in an abortion rights proxy fight; apparent turnout and persuasion edge drives Democratic success.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The pro-abortion rights/Democratic side won yet another fight related to abortion rights on Tuesday night, this time in red-trending Ohio.

— Turnout was robust and likely advantaged the Democratic side. Voter participation was relatively poor across Appalachia, a once-competitive area that has become extremely Republican in recent years.

— Issue 1 seemed particularly unpopular in some usually red suburban counties, although we have to remember that ballot issues and partisan races are different and that Republicans are still in a strong position in Ohio.

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August 3, 2023

How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part One By Kyle Kondik

Just 151 out of 3,100+ counties cast half the national vote; gap between top and bottom half expanding.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Just about 150 of the nation’s more than 3,100 counties cast half of the nation’s presidential vote in 2020.

— As we typically see at the state level, the more vote-rich counties are more Democratic, while the thousands of smaller counties that make up the bottom half are more Republican.

— This political gulf has widened. Despite similar overall national presidential margins in 2012 and 2020, the difference between the top and bottom halves expanded about 10 points from 2012 to 2020.

— Joe Biden won 126 of the 151 top half counties, while Donald Trump won 2,548 of the remaining 2,960 counties in the bottom half.

— Trump’s wins among the top half counties were concentrated among the smaller pieces of that group — Biden won all but one of the nearly 50 counties that cast 500,000 votes or more.

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July 27, 2023

Notes on the State of Politics By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Trump’s beer and wine combo helps him maintain a big primary lead; Alabama’s redistricting machinations.

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July 26, 2023

The Dwindling Crossover Governorships By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Sununu’s retirement, other factors could reduce the number of split presidential/gubernatorial results.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite an increasing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results, there are still nine governors who govern states that their party did not win for president. That means there is a higher percentage of crossover governors than crossover members of the Senate and House.

— Still, the number of crossover governors was higher in the recent past.

— While there are lots of moving pieces, including what happens in the 2024 presidential election, we could see even more of a decline in the number of crossover governors in this cycle’s gubernatorial elections.

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July 13, 2023

Notes on the State of Politics By J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

Reichert gives Washington GOP a real gubernatorial recruit; retreads abound in House races.

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June 29, 2023

Electoral College Ratings: Expect Another Highly Competitive Election By Kyle Kondik

Small edge to Democrats but neither side over 270 to start.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states.

— Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win.

— We consider a rematch of the 2020 election — Joe Biden versus Donald Trump — as the likeliest matchup, but not one that is set in stone.

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June 15, 2023

Pumping the Brakes Post-Milligan By Kyle Kondik

Surveying the redistricting picture after the Supreme Court’s unexpected decision.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The Supreme Court’s Allen v. Milligan decision should give Democrats at least a little help in their quest to re-take the House majority, but much remains uncertain.

— As of now, the Democrats’ best bets to add a seat in 2024 are in Alabama, the subject of the ruling, and Louisiana.

— It also adds to the list of potential mid-decade redistricting changes, which have happened with regularity over the past half-century.

— The closely-contested nature of the House raises the stakes of each state’s map, and redistricting changes do not necessarily have to be prompted by courts.

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April 27, 2023

How the Other Half Votes: Manchin and Tester’s Challenge By Kyle Kondik

Democratic Senate coalitions in red presidential states Montana and West Virginia.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jon Tester (D-MT) are outliers in Congress — no other Senate or House member holds a state/district that is more hostile to his or her party at the presidential level than this pair.

— Montana and especially West Virginia are deeply Republican at the presidential level, and while Manchin and Tester have clearly run way ahead of Democratic presidential performance in recent years, changes at the presidential level are reflected in their own coalitions.

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April 13, 2023

How the Other Half Votes: The Southwest By Kyle Kondik

Why Texas still leans Republican, and comparing Arizona versus Nevada.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We’re continuing our series of looking at how the most vote-rich counties in a state vote versus those that make up the rest of the state by moving to the Southwest.

— The region contains the key swing states of Arizona and Nevada, both of which are dominated by a single county that casts well north of half the statewide vote.

— Both the top and bottom halves of Texas have moved toward the Democrats from 2012-2020, but the top half just is not blue enough at the moment.

— Colorado and New Mexico have moved out of the swing state category, pushed by top-half shifts.

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April 6, 2023

How the Other Half Votes: The East By Kyle Kondik

The presidential trends from Pennsylvania to Florida.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— After looking at the Midwest last week, we’re comparing the presidential voting trajectory of the bigger counties versus the rest of the state in a number of eastern states.

— Georgia had exactly opposite top and bottom halves in 2020, with a very Republican (but stable) bottom half and Democratic-trending top half driven by changes in Atlanta.

— North Carolina and Pennsylvania are mirror images on opposite sides of the political divide.

— Florida’s turn toward the Republicans has been a bit more pronounced in its top half of bigger counties compared to its bottom half, making it an outlier among the states we’ve studied.

— South Carolina’s status as a red state is much more about its top half than its bottom half.