Electoral College Ratings: Expect Another Highly Competitive Election By Kyle Kondik
Small edge to Democrats but neither side over 270 to start.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states.
— Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win.
— We consider a rematch of the 2020 election — Joe Biden versus Donald Trump — as the likeliest matchup, but not one that is set in stone.