Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Biden’s Super Tuesday Test: Defending the South By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Sanders vs. Biden may be determined by who breaks through on the other’s turf.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Joe Biden’s victory in South Carolina re-established him as the main challenger to Bernie Sanders.

— There is some indication their battle could break on regional lines, with Sanders fighting for inroads in the South and Biden for access to the North. Biden’s task on Tuesday is protecting the six Southern states from incursions by Sanders (and perhaps others, including the unproven Michael Bloomberg).

— Sanders will lead in delegates after Super Tuesday. The question is by how much.

— Texas, both Southern and Western, is the most interesting state to watch on Tuesday.

The Sanders Tax By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

How our Electoral College ratings might change if he becomes the presumptive nominee.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— If Democrats nominated Bernie Sanders, they would, initially, start off with somewhat of a penalty in our Electoral College ratings.

— Sanders’ policy prescriptions and rhetoric may complicate Democratic prospects in the Sun Belt, where the party’s recent growth has been driven by highly-educated suburbanites.

— Given the composition of the 2020 Senate map, which features more Sun Belt states, Sanders’ relative strength in the Rust Belt — assuming that even ends up being the case — nonetheless doesn’t help Democrats much in the race for the Senate.

The Democratic Nomination: It’s Getting Late Early By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Last April, we noted that despite the ever-growing Democratic presidential field and delegate allocation rules that can string out a nomination fight, there was the possibility of a single candidate getting an early grip on the nomination because of the frontloaded calendar. By the end of St. Patrick’s Day, states awarding more than three-fifths of all the pledged delegates will have voted. We here at the Crystal Ball are big fans of the wisdom of the late Yogi Berra, and we used one of his gems at the time to sum it all up: “It gets late early out there.”

Sanders and the Senate By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Why his potential nomination makes some Democrats worry; the low-hanging fruit for both parties.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Bernie Sanders may be a poorer fit for the Democrats’ Senate targets than some other Democratic contenders if he wins the nomination.

— There are two Senate rating changes this week: Colorado moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, while Alabama moves from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.

— Republicans remain favored to hold the majority.

For Sanders, New Hampshire was a Glass Both Half-Full and Half-Empty By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The battle is breaking in his favor, even as his own performance has not been that strong.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— There are mixed signals from Bernie Sanders’ narrow victory in New Hampshire, but for now he’s supplanted Joe Biden as a weak frontrunner for the nomination.

— Overall, though, the race remains very uncertain as the scene shifts to the more diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina.

— Center-left candidates got substantially more support than progressive ones in New Hampshire, but the center-left vote split in such a way that Sanders was able to win. Pete Buttigieg has slightly more delegates so far, though.

The Iowa Chaos: A Preview of July? By Kyle Kondik

Muddled, delayed, and confusing result could end up contributing to more of the same down the road.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As of this writing, days after Iowa, the ultimate outcome there was still unclear.

— Joe Biden’s poor showing probably forecloses the possibility of him winning the nomination quickly.

— The odds of a rare, contested convention probably went up, although there’s still time for the race to sort itself out.

The Road to Milwaukee: How the Democratic Primary Will Unfold By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— At long last, the primary season begins tonight in Iowa.

— The calendar is frontloaded, with the heart of the action coming from March 3-17.

— If there is not a clear leader by St. Patrick’s Day, and especially by the end of April, the primary electorate may not actually be able to crown a clear winner.

Ratings Changes: Senate, House, and Governor By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The Kansas Senate race is getting a lot of national buzz, but we still see the GOP as clearly favored to hold the seat.

— The chances of Republicans springing Senate upsets in New Hampshire and Virginia appear to be growing dimmer.

— Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-CA) decision not to hold a special election for CA-50 makes it likelier for Republicans to hold the seat.

— Vermont is a sleeper Democratic gubernatorial target.

2019: The Year of Stability By Kyle Kondik

Big events of the year, including impeachment, don’t materially change the odds in races for president, Congress.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Impeachment is an unusual occurrence marked by usual partisanship. It is hard to argue that it has dramatically altered perceptions of the president.

— Overall, our outlook for the races for president and for Congress are pretty similar to what they were at the start of the year.

The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 as Romney 2012 By Kyle Kondik

As one shaky frontrunner endures, we’re reminded of another from the recent past.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Biden’s endurance at the top of the Democratic race is reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s endurance in the 2012 Republican race.

— Despite considerable liabilities, Romney benefited — and Biden benefits — from splintered opposition and being the best fit for a significant bloc of party regulars.

— The Democratic field is far from perfect, but other fields that seemed weak have produced winning candidates.

2020 House: Assessing the Open Seats So Far By Kyle Kondik

Openings won’t match the volume of 2018, but Democrats may once again benefit more than Republicans.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Of 28 open House seats, Republicans are defending 20 while Democrats are defending only eight.

— Of eight the Crystal Ball rates as competitive, Republicans are defending all but one.

— Open seats, along with pending redistricting in North Carolina, give Democrats a small buffer as they defend their majority.

Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Virginia by five points while winning the national popular vote by two (and losing the Electoral College). This was the most Democratic the state had voted for president, relative to the nation, since FDR was in the White House. The following year, Democrats held all three statewide offices by surprisingly large margins, and made an eye-popping gain of 15 net seats in the state House of Delegates, coming within a drawing in a tied race from forging a 50-50 tie in the body. Last year, Democrats netted three U.S. House seats and Sen. Tim Kaine (D) was reelected easily. And then on Tuesday night, Democrats netted what appears to be a half-dozen seats in the state House and two in the state Senate to win total control of state government in Richmond.

Election 2019 Mega-Preview: Political Conformity Seeks Further Confirmation By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Looking ahead to next week’s elections in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia; House ratings changes.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Nationalized politics points to a Democratic edge in next week’s Virginia state legislative elections, and a Republican advantage in the Kentucky and Mississippi gubernatorial races.

— Yet, there remains uncertainty in all of those key contests as local factors test the durability of larger partisan trends.

— Unrelated to next week’s action, we have two House rating changes to announce, both benefiting Republicans. The pending CA-25 special election moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic following Rep. Katie Hill’s (D) decision to resign, and Rep. Conor Lamb (D, PA-17) moves from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic.

— However, what appears to be a pending court-ordered congressional remap in North Carolina should benefit Democrats.

The Democrats Descend on Ohio By Kyle Kondik

But will they next year?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As the Democrats debate in Ohio, questions loom about how important the state will be in next year’s presidential election.

— Two key demographic indicators help explain why the state swung toward the Republicans in 2016 and why it seems likely to again vote to the right of the nation in 2020.

— The state remains competitive, but it’s far more important now to Republicans than Democrats.

The Senate: Ratings Changes and the Shadow of Impeachment By Kyle Kondik

If there’s a trial in the upper chamber, who might feel the heat?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Nationalization is an increasingly important trend in American election outcomes. It’s hard to think of a more nationalizing issue than a presidential impeachment.

— Vulnerable members on both sides in the Senate will have a lot to consider if and when they have to cast a vote on convicting President Trump in a potential Senate impeachment trial.

— There are two Senate ratings changes this week, one benefiting each side. The most vulnerable senator, Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican, while Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

The Electoral College: Expanding the Map By Kyle Kondik

Trump is at least a small underdog in all the Clinton states, but trying to play offense is wise.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We don’t really think President Trump can win New Mexico, where he campaigned earlier this week. But he’s wise to try to expand the map.

— While presidents who lose reelection historically don’t win states they didn’t carry in their earlier victories, presidents who win reelection typically do end up winning one or more states they lost previously, although there is one significant recent exception.

— However, the president seems to be at least a small underdog in every Hillary Clinton-won state. We’re moving New Hampshire from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in our Electoral College ratings.

Biden’s Challenge: Iowa and New Hampshire By Kyle Kondik

The schedule advantages Biden’s rivals, although it’s unclear if they can capitalize; NC-9 fallout.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Perhaps the biggest threat to Joe Biden is the nominating calendar.

— Biden is reliant on support from African Americans, but the electorates of the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are almost entirely white.

— However, even if one or more of Biden’s rivals best him in the leadoff states, they may not necessarily have much appeal to the crucial African-American voting bloc themselves.

House Ratings Changes: NC-9 Do-Over Election Going Down To The Wire By Kyle Kondik

MN-7 moves to top tier of GOP targets.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We’re moving the NC-9 special from Leans Republican to Toss-up with less than a week to go until the election. A confluence of factors makes the race too close and unpredictable for us to call.

— We’re also moving the NC-3 special election from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

— MN-7, a truly unique Democratic district, moves from Leans Democratic to Toss-up.

Notes on the State of Politics By Kyle Kondik

The one big exception to the stability in the Democratic race; Trump’s high GOP approval defines the Republican primary; special developments in Georgia, Wisconsin.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The Democratic primary race has been very stable, with the biggest exception being Elizabeth Warren’s rise to become one of the clear frontrunners.

— Donald Trump is attracting primary challengers, but his standing within the GOP remains strong.

— Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) pending resignation expands the Senate playing field next year.

— Rep. Sean Duffy’s (R, WI-7) pending resignation sets up another House special election on Republican-leaning turf. The GOP remains favored to hold the district.

Notes on the State of Politics By Kyle Kondik

Debate effects can fade; Trump may be running behind his approval; the NC-9 special; a Magnolia runoff?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The polling effects from the first debate largely wore off by the time the second round started.

— In 2016, President Trump won some voters who otherwise did not like him, but there are some signs he isn’t benefiting from such a dynamic at the moment.

— The NC-9 special House election moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican.

— Mississippi’s GOP gubernatorial primary may be headed to a runoff.