Notes on the State of the 2020 Election By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
Biden’s thin margins in the decisive states; third party vote declines; Senate aligns more closely with presidential partisanship; Republicans demonstrate down-ballot crossover appeal.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Joe Biden is on track to exceed Barack Obama’s 2012 popular vote margin, but his victory in the key states is even narrower than Donald Trump’s in 2016.
— Less than 2% of the national vote went to candidates other than Biden and Trump, a significant change from 2016.
— Assuming nothing changes, as many as 94 of 100 senators in the next Congress will share the same party as the state’s presidential winner.
— The ability to generate crossover support helped Republicans perform surprisingly well in both Senate and House races.