Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans in What Remains a Toss-up Race By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— We are making six Electoral College rating changes this week, all in favor of Republicans.
— However, we don’t really see a clear favorite in a presidential race with many confounding factors.
— We consider Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to all be must-wins for the Democrats. While one can hypothetically come up with paths to 270 electoral votes for Democrats without them, we don’t find those paths to be compelling.
— Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) remains a favorite in our ratings, but our shift of Pennsylvania to Toss-up in the presidential race prompts a concurrent change in his race, from Likely to Leans Democratic.