Commentary By J. Miles Coleman

After Trump Pardons Cuellar, TX-28 Moves to Leans Democratic By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In what was a surprising bipartisan move last week, President Donald Trump pardoned Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28), who was indicted on corruption and money laundering charges.

— Though the state’s new GOP-drawn House map faced some legal hurdles, the Supreme Court recently greenlit the mid-decade gerrymander for 2026.

— Republicans will very likely net seats under the new Texas map, though Cuellar may have actually gotten a more favorable district.

— Considering his pardon and the new lines, we are moving Cuellar from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

— To the delight of national Republicans, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D, TX-30) made a late entry into the Senate race. We are holding the race at Likely Republican.

Maine Senate Primary Tests Whether Democrats Will Keep Deferring to Their Leaders By J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Gov. Janet Mills’s (D-ME) Senate run sets up an intriguing primary that will test Democratic voters’ willingness to go along with the preferences of party leaders.

— Mills’s most prominent rival, oyster farmer Graham Platner (D), is already attacking her, and the primary illustrates several fissures in the party, including insider vs. outsider and older vs. younger.

— There are several instances of sitting governors losing Senate primaries in the postwar era, but these are generally from decades ago.

Two New Swing Seats? Unpacking Utah’s (Possible) New Map By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

—In Utah, Republicans passed a new U.S. House map that could potentially be used next year, as the current map was ruled unconstitutional.

—Though the map Republicans passed retains four Trump-won districts, we would likely place two of those districts in competitive rating categories.

—The plaintiffs, who sued to have the original Utah map overturned, have submitted their own plans to a judge; both maps would almost certainly result in 3-1 GOP delegations.

—In Tennessee, the parties picked nominees for a TN-7 special election this week; we rate that contest as Likely Republican.

Rating the New Missouri House Map By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Over the weekend, Gov. Mike Kehoe (R-MO) signed off on a mid-decade gerrymander designed to give Republicans all but one of the 8 House seats in his state.

— Aside from turning a blue district in the Kansas City area red, the map fortified the St. Louis-area MO-2, the most marginal GOP-held seat on the map.

— Though we are assuming the new map will be operative, there are some efforts to stop, or delay, the map’s implementation, including court challenges and a potential ballot measure.

— In Arizona, Rep. David Schweikert (R, AZ-1) got into his state’s gubernatorial race, which leaves open a competitive seat in the Phoenix area.

Getting Back to the Senate: Defeated Senators Who’ve Returned to Office By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Several defeated senators are currently running or considering runs for Senate in 2026.

— In the postwar era, about 220 sitting senators have lost their seats in general elections or primaries, and most do not try to reenter electoral politics.

— Still, almost 30 defeated senators have tried to return to the chamber, although only six have been successful since 1946.

Notes on the State of Politics: Iowa Special Elections, Utah Redistricting By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In Iowa, Democrats continued to rack up special election overperformances by flipping a Trump-won state Senate seat that is based in Sioux City.

— Democrats have broken the GOP’s supermajority in the state Senate, although Republicans still hold comfortable majorities in both chambers of the legislature.

— A judge threw out Utah’s current House map, a GOP gerrymander, ruling that it does not fit with the guidelines set by a 2018 voter-approved state ballot issue.

— A fairer map of Utah would probably have one blue seat and three red ones, instead of four red ones, though Utah Republicans may try to delay a new map’s implementation.

What Fairer House Maps in One-Party Delegation States Could Look Like By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The recent mid-decade redistricting developments have prompted a debate about proportionality and representation in the House.

— There are several states across the country where either party lacks representation in the House even as its candidates routinely take a sizable minority share of the vote in statewide elections.

— Redistricting could yield more equitable House delegations in those states, although in many cases, it is hard to get a party’s share of the vote exactly in line with its seat count.

— In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) entrance into the 2026 Senate race against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) has prompted us to move the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

2004 to 2024, Part Two: When Each State Was at its Most Republican By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The “presidential lean” of a state can, over time, help us quantify its political trajectory.

— Much of the Heartland and Midwest has come to lean more to the GOP over the past two decades, though the Sun Belt has gotten more Democratic.

— By our “leans” metric, Donald Trump held up especially well in several swing states in 2020, even as he lost the presidency that year.

— Florida was the only state that was at its most Democratic in 2004, the earliest year that we consider, and its most Republican last year, showing a clear trend toward Republicans over two decades.

Nebraska Senate: Osborn launches second run By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In Nebraska, Dan Osborn, an independent candidate who held Sen. Deb Fischer (R) to a single-digit win last year, announced he’d challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

— Though Ricketts should be more formidable than Fischer, Osborn is still a credible challenger, so we are moving the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

— We are also rating an imminent special election in TN-7 as Likely Republican. Republicans are still clearly favored to hold it but the dynamics of recent low-turnout special elections could make it more competitive than one might otherwise think.

— There will be a trio of special elections in some deep blue districts later this year. While Democrats are heavy favorites to retain them all, AZ-7 could represent an opportunity to see if the GOP’s recent gains with Latinos are sticking.

2004 to 2024, Part One: When Each State Was at its Most Democratic By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The “presidential lean” of a state can, over time, tell us something about how it is trending.

— Though 2004 and 2024 produced similar topline national results, there has been some significant change in how individual states vote relative to the country.

— By this measure, Kamala Harris held up relatively well in Sun Belt Toss-up states, while it has been several cycles since the Rust Belt Toss-ups were at their most Democratic.

Notes on the State of Politics: The Mamdani Upset and a Deeper Look at Virginia By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In New York City, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for mayor, defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

— One of the things that probably worked against Cuomo was the fact that some of his key constituencies are less likely to be registered to vote in Democratic primaries.

— Turnout in Virginia’s primary last week was slightly higher than what 2021’s primary saw, though there were some important locality-level changes.

— In winning the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) won most of the state’s congressional districts.

— The close Democratic primary for Attorney General helped illustrate how primary turnout patterns differ from that of general elections.

Rating Changes: Iowa Senate, ME-2, and More By J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making four rating changes this week—one in the Senate and three in the House—with two races getting better for Democrats and two getting better for Republicans.

— The Iowa Senate race moves onto the periphery of the competitive board this week. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) was in the news recently for comments on health care, although the bigger reason for the switch is that she drew a potentially credible Democratic challenger.

— The most notable House change is moving ME-2, the most Republican district held by a Democrat, to Toss-up, and we are also making a couple of other changes to open seats where talented incumbent House members are running for the Senate.

Notes on the State of Politics: Omaha Mayor, Past Voter Turnout in New Jersey and Virginia By J. Miles Coleman

Dear Readers: Today, we are leading off with some observations from Omaha’s recent mayoral election. The city makes up the better part of Nebraska’s 2nd District, a rare Kamala Harris-won but GOP-held district that is perpetually high on both parties’ House wish lists. Then, we will look at recent turnout patterns in New Jersey and Virginia, which will each host closely-watched gubernatorial contests in November.

— The Editors

The Governors, Part One: Democrats Start as Favorites in 2025 New Jersey and Virginia Races By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While 2026 will feature three dozen gubernatorial contests, two states, New Jersey and Virginia, will elect governors in open-seat races this year.

— We are starting out both 2025 contests, which are in states that backed Kamala Harris by nearly 6 points apiece, as Leans Democratic.

— In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D, NJ-11) is a tenuous favorite for the Democratic nomination amidst a crowded field, while 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli is a stronger favorite on his side.

— Neither Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) nor former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) have primary competition, so Virginia’s race is in general election mode earlier than usual.

Notes on the State of Politics: New Hampshire Senate and Change in Virginia By J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: New Hampshire Senate and Change in Virginia

House District Loyalty in the Trump Era By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In presidential elections since 2016, only 28 of the 435 current House districts have backed nominees of different parties.

— In next year’s House elections, districts that have been Electoral College bellwethers since 2016 could play a large role in determining whether Democrats can recapture the majority.

— Still, Republicans have some potential offensive targets in districts that have been national popular vote bellwethers.

— While House Democrats find themselves in a similar overall situation now as they did in 2017, the general contours of the House battlefield are different.

Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part Two: The Sun Belt By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala Harris gained in some fast-growing suburban counties, but it was not enough to cancel out the drift to Donald Trump elsewhere in those states.

— Arizona was Trump’s strongest of the presidential Toss-up states in part because its border counties continued to shift strongly in his direction.

— Trump carried Nevada because he was the best-performing Republican in Clark County (Las Vegas) in decades, although Washoe County (Reno) narrowly stuck with Harris.

Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part One: The Industrial North By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Before the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball isolated several key counties in Toss-up states. We are circling back to see what the results in those counties said about the overall election.

— Several Democratic-trending suburban and touristy counties in the Industrial North continued to move left, although just not by the margins that Kamala Harris would have needed.

— In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump’s notable gains in the Scranton area played into his strong 2024 showing in the state.

— Sticking to the Industrial North generally, and in 2026 news, Sen. Gary Peters’s (D-MI) retirement opens up a Senate seat in Michigan for the second time in as many cycles.

Wisconsin 2024: Not Critical But Still Crucial By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Though she still lost it by less than a percentage point, Wisconsin was Kamala Harris’s best state out of the 7 that we rated as Toss-ups during the election.

— In the traditionally red WOW counties around Milwaukee, Harris gained votes, but fewer than she would have liked.

— Though it is still a Democratic bastion, Donald Trump saw some of his biggest vote gains in Milwaukee County.

— Much of Trump’s margin in the state came from doing just a little bit better across the board in 2024 than he did in 2020.

— In the northeastern part of the state, Harris held up relatively well in the BOW counties, and several cities in that region will be worth watching going forward.

How Virginia Illustrates the 2024 Election By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Kamala Harris carried Virginia by close to 6 points this month. This was worse than Joe Biden’s 10-point showing in the state, although it was slightly better than Hillary Clinton’s performance, even as the latter had a Virginian (Sen. Tim Kaine) on her ticket.

— Much of the state’s movement to Donald Trump can be attributed to a pronounced rightward shift in heavily Democratic Northern Virginia.

— Though she lost ground overall, Harris held on to some of Joe Biden’s 2020 gains in many of the state’s more marginal localities.

— Though it was not a Toss-up state, in some ways, such as its internal swing and voting rhythms, Virginia was in sync with the nation as a whole.