Commentary By J. Miles Coleman

Florida’s Primary: Senate Race Moves Back to Safe Republican, While a Pair of House Races Remain Where They Were By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In an upset last night, Florida Democrats nominated state Rep. Angie Nixon over the much better funded, and less progressive, Alex Vindman.

— Without Vindman’s fundraising capacity, Democrats will probably have an even harder time against appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), so we are moving the race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.

— In the 7th District, Rep. Cory Mills (R) became the 12th member this year to lose a primary; his defeat actually leaves the GOP better-positioned to hold his seat.

— South Florida Democrats also made an electorally wise choice of their own, opting to renominate Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) in the marginal FL-25 over his more progressive primary opponent.

Sanders 2016 to El-Sayed 2026: Two Different Paths to Narrow, Progressive Primary Wins in Michigan By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Last week, Abdul El-Sayed captured the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan over Rep. Haley Stevens (D, MI-11).

— That El-Sayed narrowly won the nomination running as a progressive was one of the many parallels this primary had to the state’s 2016 Democratic presidential contest.

— However, there was considerable change between the two Democratic primaries, as El-Sayed fared better than Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in metro Detroit but worse in rural areas.

Georgia Senate: The Peach State Ripens for Democrats By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— A combination of dominant fundraising, stable polling, and a favorable political environment has strengthened Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-GA) chances for reelection in his purple state.

— Even if Rep. Mike Collins (R, GA-10) gains ground against Ossoff as Republican voters consolidate, recent Georgia elections suggest Democrats can withstand heavy losses among white voters and still prevail statewide.

— Georgia may look competitive on paper, but the outcome itself appears increasingly predictable.

Three Gubernatorial Rating Changes: Michigan to Leans Democratic, New Mexico to Safe Democratic, Florida to Likely Republican By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making three gubernatorial rating changes today, all to the benefit of Democrats.

— We are making Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the likely Democratic nominee, a favorite to succeed Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) by moving that race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

The Places We’re Watching as Virginia Votes on a Pro-Democratic House Map By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Next week, Virginians will decide whether or not to scrap their current House map, where Democrats have a 6-5 advantage, in favor of one where Democrats could win up to 10 seats.

— The state Supreme Court will consider the legality of the ballot measure after the vote is held next week; Republicans are hoping that, if the measure passes, it is invalidated by the court.

— While the result may not be the type of sweeping affirmation that Democrats got in last year’s elections, it would still be a surprise if the vote fails.

— Last year’s attorney general contest may provide a template for the results, with key localities such as Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Stafford County standing out as places the “no” side will want to carry in order to spring an upset.

— If the voters approve the map, we would rate 4 seats that are currently held by Republicans as at least Leans Democratic.

— Aside from the Virginia vote, where Democrats stand to gain, there are a couple of shoes left to drop in the 2026 mid-decade redistricting saga that could benefit Republicans.

Getting Deeper into Texas and North Carolina’s Primaries By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In Texas, Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R, TX-38) presence in the GOP Senate primary likely hurt Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) on balance.

— However, Hunt’s performance was not distinctively strong anywhere in the state, as he even came in third place in the district he represents.

— Overall, Democrats outvoted Republicans in Texas by 3 points, making 2026 the first midterm cycle since 2002 where Democrats cast more ballots in Texas.

— In North Carolina, Democrats outvoted Republicans by an even larger 57%-43%, even as they have fallen behind both Unaffiliateds and Republicans in their share of the state’s overall voter registration.

Crossing the Chesapeake Bay: Maryland Democrats’ Renewed 8-0 Proposal By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Democrats in the Maryland House of Delegates recently passed a map recommended by Gov. Wes Moore’s (D) Redistricting Advisory Commission.

— The potential new map seriously imperils the delegation’s sole Republican, Rep. Andy Harris (R, MD-1), while firming up Democrats’ most marginal seat on the existing map, western Maryland’s MD-6.

— Despite the lower chamber’s vote, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) has emerged as a major opponent of mid-decade redistricting; he says he will not prioritize passing a new map.

— Even if the commission’s map passes the entire legislature, state courts could take steps to block its implementation, as was the case with a similar 8-0 proposal in 2022.

After Trump Pardons Cuellar, TX-28 Moves to Leans Democratic By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In what was a surprising bipartisan move last week, President Donald Trump pardoned Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28), who was indicted on corruption and money laundering charges.

— Though the state’s new GOP-drawn House map faced some legal hurdles, the Supreme Court recently greenlit the mid-decade gerrymander for 2026.

— Republicans will very likely net seats under the new Texas map, though Cuellar may have actually gotten a more favorable district.

— Considering his pardon and the new lines, we are moving Cuellar from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

— To the delight of national Republicans, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D, TX-30) made a late entry into the Senate race. We are holding the race at Likely Republican.

Maine Senate Primary Tests Whether Democrats Will Keep Deferring to Their Leaders By J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Gov. Janet Mills’s (D-ME) Senate run sets up an intriguing primary that will test Democratic voters’ willingness to go along with the preferences of party leaders.

— Mills’s most prominent rival, oyster farmer Graham Platner (D), is already attacking her, and the primary illustrates several fissures in the party, including insider vs. outsider and older vs. younger.

— There are several instances of sitting governors losing Senate primaries in the postwar era, but these are generally from decades ago.

Two New Swing Seats? Unpacking Utah’s (Possible) New Map By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

—In Utah, Republicans passed a new U.S. House map that could potentially be used next year, as the current map was ruled unconstitutional.

—Though the map Republicans passed retains four Trump-won districts, we would likely place two of those districts in competitive rating categories.

—The plaintiffs, who sued to have the original Utah map overturned, have submitted their own plans to a judge; both maps would almost certainly result in 3-1 GOP delegations.

—In Tennessee, the parties picked nominees for a TN-7 special election this week; we rate that contest as Likely Republican.

Rating the New Missouri House Map By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Over the weekend, Gov. Mike Kehoe (R-MO) signed off on a mid-decade gerrymander designed to give Republicans all but one of the 8 House seats in his state.

— Aside from turning a blue district in the Kansas City area red, the map fortified the St. Louis-area MO-2, the most marginal GOP-held seat on the map.

— Though we are assuming the new map will be operative, there are some efforts to stop, or delay, the map’s implementation, including court challenges and a potential ballot measure.

— In Arizona, Rep. David Schweikert (R, AZ-1) got into his state’s gubernatorial race, which leaves open a competitive seat in the Phoenix area.

Getting Back to the Senate: Defeated Senators Who’ve Returned to Office By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Several defeated senators are currently running or considering runs for Senate in 2026.

— In the postwar era, about 220 sitting senators have lost their seats in general elections or primaries, and most do not try to reenter electoral politics.

— Still, almost 30 defeated senators have tried to return to the chamber, although only six have been successful since 1946.

Notes on the State of Politics: Iowa Special Elections, Utah Redistricting By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In Iowa, Democrats continued to rack up special election overperformances by flipping a Trump-won state Senate seat that is based in Sioux City.

— Democrats have broken the GOP’s supermajority in the state Senate, although Republicans still hold comfortable majorities in both chambers of the legislature.

— A judge threw out Utah’s current House map, a GOP gerrymander, ruling that it does not fit with the guidelines set by a 2018 voter-approved state ballot issue.

— A fairer map of Utah would probably have one blue seat and three red ones, instead of four red ones, though Utah Republicans may try to delay a new map’s implementation.

What Fairer House Maps in One-Party Delegation States Could Look Like By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The recent mid-decade redistricting developments have prompted a debate about proportionality and representation in the House.

— There are several states across the country where either party lacks representation in the House even as its candidates routinely take a sizable minority share of the vote in statewide elections.

— Redistricting could yield more equitable House delegations in those states, although in many cases, it is hard to get a party’s share of the vote exactly in line with its seat count.

— In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) entrance into the 2026 Senate race against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) has prompted us to move the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

2004 to 2024, Part Two: When Each State Was at its Most Republican By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The “presidential lean” of a state can, over time, help us quantify its political trajectory.

— Much of the Heartland and Midwest has come to lean more to the GOP over the past two decades, though the Sun Belt has gotten more Democratic.

— By our “leans” metric, Donald Trump held up especially well in several swing states in 2020, even as he lost the presidency that year.

— Florida was the only state that was at its most Democratic in 2004, the earliest year that we consider, and its most Republican last year, showing a clear trend toward Republicans over two decades.

Nebraska Senate: Osborn launches second run By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In Nebraska, Dan Osborn, an independent candidate who held Sen. Deb Fischer (R) to a single-digit win last year, announced he’d challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

— Though Ricketts should be more formidable than Fischer, Osborn is still a credible challenger, so we are moving the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

— We are also rating an imminent special election in TN-7 as Likely Republican. Republicans are still clearly favored to hold it but the dynamics of recent low-turnout special elections could make it more competitive than one might otherwise think.

— There will be a trio of special elections in some deep blue districts later this year. While Democrats are heavy favorites to retain them all, AZ-7 could represent an opportunity to see if the GOP’s recent gains with Latinos are sticking.

2004 to 2024, Part One: When Each State Was at its Most Democratic By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The “presidential lean” of a state can, over time, tell us something about how it is trending.

— Though 2004 and 2024 produced similar topline national results, there has been some significant change in how individual states vote relative to the country.

— By this measure, Kamala Harris held up relatively well in Sun Belt Toss-up states, while it has been several cycles since the Rust Belt Toss-ups were at their most Democratic.

Notes on the State of Politics: The Mamdani Upset and a Deeper Look at Virginia By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In New York City, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for mayor, defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

— One of the things that probably worked against Cuomo was the fact that some of his key constituencies are less likely to be registered to vote in Democratic primaries.

— Turnout in Virginia’s primary last week was slightly higher than what 2021’s primary saw, though there were some important locality-level changes.

— In winning the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) won most of the state’s congressional districts.

— The close Democratic primary for Attorney General helped illustrate how primary turnout patterns differ from that of general elections.

Rating Changes: Iowa Senate, ME-2, and More By J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making four rating changes this week—one in the Senate and three in the House—with two races getting better for Democrats and two getting better for Republicans.

— The Iowa Senate race moves onto the periphery of the competitive board this week. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) was in the news recently for comments on health care, although the bigger reason for the switch is that she drew a potentially credible Democratic challenger.

— The most notable House change is moving ME-2, the most Republican district held by a Democrat, to Toss-up, and we are also making a couple of other changes to open seats where talented incumbent House members are running for the Senate.

Notes on the State of Politics: Omaha Mayor, Past Voter Turnout in New Jersey and Virginia By J. Miles Coleman

Dear Readers: Today, we are leading off with some observations from Omaha’s recent mayoral election. The city makes up the better part of Nebraska’s 2nd District, a rare Kamala Harris-won but GOP-held district that is perpetually high on both parties’ House wish lists. Then, we will look at recent turnout patterns in New Jersey and Virginia, which will each host closely-watched gubernatorial contests in November.

— The Editors