Three Gubernatorial Rating Changes: Michigan to Leans Democratic, New Mexico to Safe Democratic, Florida to Likely Republican

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making three gubernatorial rating changes today, all to the benefit of Democrats.

— We are making Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the likely Democratic nominee, a favorite to succeed Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) by moving that race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

— New Mexico moves to Safe Democratic, as former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland seems well-positioned to hold her state’s governor’s mansion for Democrats.

— Florida governor moves from Safe Republican to Likely Republican as polling suggests a single-digit race in this red state.

Table 1: Gubernatorial rating changes

Map 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings

Michigan: Consolidation helps Benson

If you’ve heard anything about Michigan politics over the last couple of weeks, the odds are it has been something related to the Democratic primary for the state’s open Senate seat. Earlier this month, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) ended her campaign, which turned what, at one point, was looking like a true three-way contest into the increasingly bitter fight between Rep. Haley Stevens (D, MI-11) and former Detroit health official and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed. That race, which is being billed as a fight over the larger direction of the party between the establishment-oriented center-left (Stevens) vs. the anti-establishment left (El-Sayed) has consumed the lion’s share of Michigan’s political oxygen and outside spending this summer. The governor’s race, by contrast, has drawn less attention even as it has taken shape.

A key development in the gubernatorial race came in late May, when former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who had spent a long career in local politics and government as a Democrat but who dropped his party affiliation to run statewide, left the race entirely. Though the likely Democratic nominee, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, was frequently still leading Republicans in three-way polls, she often did so by close margins and, given where Duggan is best known, it stood to reason that he could pull votes in one of the state’s bluest constituencies. Since May, the race has taken on a more familiar two-party dynamic, with Benson establishing a clearer lead in a few polls taken since Duggan left the contest.

Though she’ll have some opposition in her own primary, it would be a shock if Benson does not comfortably claim the Democratic nomination in less than two weeks. Benson was originally set to face off against Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, although the latter switched to the open Secretary of State race earlier this year. Benson’s remaining primary opponent, Genesee County (Flint) Sheriff Chris Swanson, brings an unconventional source of name recognition to the race: his office has worked with To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen on child predator sting operations that have drawn millions of views on YouTube. While Benson enjoys heavy institutional support, it’s not hard to imagine some otherwise disengaged primary voters recognizing Swanson from those videos.

In what has become a theme in this race, there was also some candidate consolidation on the Republican side. Former state Attorney General Mike Cox left the race last week. Rep. John James (R, MI-10), who has President Trump’s support, could be called a tenuous frontrunner for the nomination. On the campaign trail, Cox spent much of the summer alleging that a company where James had served as CEO has ties to China, although on his way out of the race, he acknowledged that Trump’s endorsement was hard to compete with. This leaves businessman and 2024 presidential candidate Perry Johnson as the only remaining opponent to James in what has become, like the Democratic race for Senate, a nasty primary.

Michigan has actually not elected a Democrat to succeed another Democrat as governor since 1960—a streak that would seem to caution against designating Benson as a favorite. But these kinds of historical patterns are not set in perpetuity—Pennsylvania, for instance, had a steady eight-years-and-out rhythm for much of the postwar era, which held up until it was broken in 2014.

We originally viewed the governor’s race as a somewhat tougher contest for Michigan Democrats than the Senate contest. Since then, the two races have essentially traded places. Consolidation on the gubernatorial primary’s Republican side, combined with a clear Democratic front-runner in Benson, and Duggan’s exit has made the governor’s race look more favorable for Democrats than it did in the spring. Meanwhile, the Senate race has turned into an expensive, nationally-watched primary that has underscored some fault lines in the Democratic coalition—this dynamic just isn’t at play in the gubernatorial race. We are moving Michigan’s gubernatorial race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, while we’ll reevaluate the Senate race, which is a Toss-up, following the primary.

New Mexico: Haaland gets safer

Out west, we are making another change that is less about drama and has more to do with a race settling into place. New Mexico was never a top-tier target for Republicans, but an open-seat dynamic and a genuine primary on the Democratic side kept us at Likely Democratic rather than Safe Democratic to start the cycle.

Last month, former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland turned back Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in the Democratic primary, and she now heads into the fall in a strong position in her blue state. On the Republican side, former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull won his own three-way primary. But Hull enters the general election in a difficult financial position: Haaland reported entering the summer with roughly a 7-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage, and has outraised Hull by better than 2-to-1 even after clinching her own nomination. Hull may have picked up a modest boost this past week when former Las Cruces mayor Ken Miyagishima, a former Democrat who tried to run for governor as an independent but couldn’t make the ballot, and endorsed him, but it’s not clear how many votes this endorsement will move.

The New Mexico Republican Party has spent much of the year consumed by internal dysfunction, including the court-ordered removal of Chair Amy Barela and the arrest of treasurer Kimberly Skaggs. For a state party that is already contending with an electorate that usually leans towards the other party, devoting the summer to leadership disputes rather than campaign-building is hardly the recipe for flipping an open governor’s office.

With the Democratic side unified behind a nominee enjoying a fundraising edge, and Republicans nominating a credible but financially and organizationally overmatched candidate, this race no longer carries enough uncertainty to justify a Likely rating. We’re moving it to Safe Democratic.

Florida: Moving onto the board

Finally, down in Florida, some recent polling has shown the general election tighter than what our current Safe Republican rating would suggest: a University of North Florida pollfound Rep. Byron Donalds (R, FL-19), the likely GOP nominee, leading the likely Democratic nominee, former Rep. David Jolly, by just 5 points, 46% to 41%, tracking with an average of other surveys from the past several months showing a mid-single-digit race.

At one point, Florida Republicans appeared headed for one of the marquee primaries of 2026: a proxy battle between President Trump and outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Trump moved early to endorse Donalds, while speculation swirled for months that First Lady Casey DeSantis—or another candidate backed by the governor—would challenge him. Instead, Casey DeSantis opted against a campaign, and the governor himself has largely stayed out of the primary.

With that, the contest has become Donalds’s to lose. The Trump-backed congressman has maintained a commanding position in most public polling. Still, the Republican primary field is large, with 11 candidates having qualified for the Aug. 18 ballot. Though the non-Donalds candidate list includes some names that have obvious “traditional” gubernatorial resumes—most notably Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former state House Speaker Paul Renner—investor James Fishback may be the highest profile alternative. Fishback, who has a penchant for provocative social media posts, has traded places with Collins as a distant second to Donalds.

On the Democratic side, the aforementioned Jolly seems to be in a strong position for the nomination. Jolly won a high-profile 2014 special election in the Tampa Bay area as a Republican, but left the GOP following his defeat in 2016. Jolly has named former Rep. Gwen Graham (D, FL-2) as his running mate. A running counterfactual in Florida politics has been how the state’s political trajectory may have been different if Democrats had nominated Graham against Ron DeSantis in 2018; she narrowly lost the primary to Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, who went on to lose to DeSantis by less than half a point. Gillum has since had legal problems, including a recent arrest on drug possession charges.

Even though he’d face tough general election odds, Jolly could at least become a somewhat rare former Republican to win a key Democratic primary this cycle: other candidates who have tried, but fallen well short, include former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan next door in Georgia, and anti-Trump attorney George Conway, who ran in a crowded primary for Manhattan’s NY-12.

We would not call Florida truly competitive. But an open seat and relatively close polling are enough to move this off Safe Republican and into Likely Republican. We also noticedthat Donalds recently challenged Jolly to a series of debates. Though Donalds, as the GOP primary frontrunner, may simply be signaling that he’s ready to pivot toward the general election, candidates who are comfortably ahead are not usually the ones pressing for debates.

This change also brings our gubernatorial rating into line with where we already have Florida’s other major 2026 race. We moved the state’s Senate contest, where appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) will likely face Democrat Alexander Vindman, from Safe Republican to Likely Republican back in January, for essentially the same reason—a credible opponent in a state that, however red it’s become, may not have entirely lost its capacity to produce an intriguing statewide race.

J. Miles Coleman is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. He also serves as the Center’s Media Relations Coordinator. Follow him on Twitter @jmilescoleman.

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