Florida’s Primary: Senate Race Moves Back to Safe Republican, While a Pair of House Races Remain Where They Were

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In an upset last night, Florida Democrats nominated state Rep. Angie Nixon over the much better funded, and less progressive, Alex Vindman.

— Without Vindman’s fundraising capacity, Democrats will probably have an even harder time against appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), so we are moving the race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.

— In the 7th District, Rep. Cory Mills (R) became the 12th member this year to lose a primary; his defeat actually leaves the GOP better-positioned to hold his seat.

— South Florida Democrats also made an electorally wise choice of their own, opting to renominate Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) in the marginal FL-25 over his more progressive primary opponent.

Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change

For Florida Democrats, Nixon’s the One

Last night, three states held primaries: Florida, Wyoming, and Alaska. Alaska is home to some key 2026 races, but we are waiting until all the results are in to dig into its primary returns (Alaska will also likely feature some ballot machinations, as candidates who advance to the top-four general election may decide to drop out once the dust settles from the primary). Meanwhile, Wyoming is a dark red state with Safe Republican-rated races. That left the Florida primary as the night’s “main event.” We were watching the following three races for potential rating changes:

— Florida’s Democratic primary for Senate produced a significant surprise. State Rep. Angie Nixon (D), a legislator from the Jacksonville area and Democratic Socialist, defeated former National Security Council member Alex Vindman by a 56%-44% margin.

In January, we moved our overall rating for the Senate race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. That change was predicated, to a large extent, on the fact that Vindman seemed to be in the driver’s seat of his primary. And if he proved anything like his twin brother, Rep. Eugene Vindman (D, VA-7), on the fundraising front, he would have no problem raising enough money to at least keep what has otherwise become a daunting state on the board. Indeed, ahead of this week’s primary, Vindman had raised about $16 million, while Nixon had raised less than $1 million. In a big state like Florida, Vindman could at least have run a statewide campaign.

If the current political mood was similar to what Trump’s first midterm saw, Vindman probably would have been better positioned. His endorsements from figures like Rep. Jamie Raskin (D, MD-8) and author Mary Trump suggested that he was a good fit for older, high-information “#resistance” voters. In fact, according to Redistricter, residents older than 65 collectively accounted for nearly 30% of the population of the 15 counties that Vindman carried; senior citizens made up just 18% of the population of the counties Nixon won.

Nixon, who ran as a more strident progressive, seemed to have more credibility with grassroots Democrats. She also received some prominent outside endorsements, including from members of the progressive “Squad” and, notably, YouTuber Ms. Rachel. Orlando-area Rep. Maxwell Frost (D, FL-10) was one of her more visible backers; outside of her home county, Jacksonville’s Duval, she carried the core Orlando metro counties by better than 2-to-1. One thing that may have hurt Vindman, even in a state where many residents were not born there themselves, is that he really did not have much connection to Florida before deciding to run there. In another Florida primary last night, the GOP race for the open, dark red FL-19 got national attention for attracting a litany of candidates from out of state, but the candidate who won the nomination, media company owner Jim Schwartzel, is actually from the area.

But Democrats now enter the general election with a more progressive and lesser-funded nominee against appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R). Moody is running to serve out the final two years of the term that now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) won in 2022. She has been criticized by some for running a low-key campaign, but she lacks any obvious baggage and is essentially a generic Republican in a bright red state.

This was always going to be a heavy lift for Democrats, but following the primary, we are moving Florida’s Senate race back to Safe Republican from Likely Republican.

For Senate Democrats, the silver lining of this change might be that Florida now looks less attractive to donors. While it is impossible to precisely dictate where donors send money, those contributions would presumably be more likely to end up in more competitive states.

However, having to run with a weaker Senate nominee may make life a little harder for some down-ballot Democrats in Florida’s more marginal districts. That said, a much different kind of candidate, party-switching former Republican Rep. David Jolly, is the Democratic nominee in the state’s other top statewide race (the state’s gubernatorial race remains rated Likely Republican in our ratings).

— Staying on the subject of down-ballot incumbents, we were watching a pair of House seats last night. In both cases, primary voters made electorally smart decisions: in the case of Republicans, that involved ousting an incumbent, while, for Democrats, that meant renominating one.

In the northern Orlando metro area, FL-7, which includes all of Seminole County and part of Volusia County, is a district whose partisanship is not much different than Florida’s as a whole: FL-7 backed Donald Trump 52%-47% in 2020 and then by a larger 55%-43% in 2024. Rep. Cory Mills (R, FL-7) had amassed a weighty list of scandals since his last reelection as he sought a third term. In addition to formal ethics investigations, the allegations against him ranged from domestic abuse to stolen valor. Though Trump endorsed Mills earlier in the campaign, when he reupped his Florida endorsements on the eve of the primary, he notably did not include Mills. In what was a multi-way primary, former news anchor Ryan Elijah (R) consolidated enough of the anti-Mills vote to win 47%-34%. Had Mills won renomination, we would probably be moving FL-7 to a more competitive category—but with a fresh, scandal-free GOP nominee, we are holding the race at Likely Republican.

On more of a “housekeeping” note, the FL-7 primary results represents the 12th incumbent loss of the primary season. So, in terms of House incumbent losses, that puts 2026 ahead of or tied with several postwar election cycles that saw full-scale national redistricting; such years tend to produce more primary turnover. Mid-decade redistricting, however, was not the key factor in most member losses this year.

Because Trump never actually rescinded his endorsement in FL-7, Mills was also among at least three Trump-backed candidates who lost major GOP primaries last night—the others were Catalina Lauf, who lost the aforementioned FL-19 primary to replace the party’s gubernatorial nominee, Rep. Byron Donalds, in Congress, and Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, who lost a primary for governor last night. Another test of the Trump endorsement’s potency is set for next week, as the president is backing appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), who is in a runoff with Rep. Ralph Norman (R, SC-5). Graham may have been hurt by her performance in a debate that was held last night—she admitted that she wasn’t “that informed” on national security issues, something that her late brother was deeply involved in during his time in Congress.

Finally, like some other Democrats in the state’s delegation, Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) was given a tougher seat in redistricting. Under the new map, Moskowitz is running for the new FL-25, a vertical, serpentine-shaped seat that includes parts of South Florida’s 3 large counties—at the presidential level, Democratic vote shares in this district have dropped from 54% to 52% to 45% over the last three elections. But even with that rightward trend, Moskowitz, who is Jewish himself and has some moderate credentials, seems like a fair fit for what is likely one of the most heavily Jewish districts outside of the New York City area. In the Democratic primary, Moskowitz drew a left-wing challenger in activist Oliver Larkin, who ran openly as a Democratic Socialist—a profile that would seem ill-suited for a general election in a marginal South Florida seat. Moskowitz defeated Larkin by almost 30 points, and advances to face Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R) in a race that we are holding as a Toss-up.

J. Miles Coleman is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. He also serves as the Center’s Media Relations Coordinator. Follow him on Twitter @jmilescoleman.

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