The Places We’re Watching as Virginia Votes on a Pro-Democratic House Map

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Next week, Virginians will decide whether or not to scrap their current House map, where Democrats have a 6-5 advantage, in favor of one where Democrats could win up to 10 seats.

— The state Supreme Court will consider the legality of the ballot measure after the vote is held next week; Republicans are hoping that, if the measure passes, it is invalidated by the court.

— While the result may not be the type of sweeping affirmation that Democrats got in last year’s elections, it would still be a surprise if the vote fails.

— Last year’s attorney general contest may provide a template for the results, with key localities such as Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Stafford County standing out as places the “no” side will want to carry in order to spring an upset.

— If the voters approve the map, we would rate 4 seats that are currently held by Republicans as at least Leans Democratic.

— Aside from the Virginia vote, where Democrats stand to gain, there are a couple of shoes left to drop in the 2026 mid-decade redistricting saga that could benefit Republicans.

From 6-5 to 10-1 in Virginia?

Next week, Virginia, the scene of one of the nation’s most closely watched 2025 races, will host another contest with national implications. Much like California did last year, Virginians will decide whether or not to replace their current map, which was approved by the state Supreme Court ahead of the 2022 elections and can be considered a “fair” plan, with an aggressive Democratic gerrymander.

If voters approve next week’s ballot measure, the Democratic-controlled legislature would be able to replace the court-drawn map, which has produced a 6-5 Democratic delegation since it has been in place with one that would have a good chance of producing a 10-1 Democratic advantage. (The current map is basically representative of the state’s partisanship, particularly because Democrats could net an additional seat or two on it in the context of 2026.)

That is, assuming the state Supreme Court doesn’t intervene in a major way. Republicans, and their allies, have sued the legislature, claiming that Democratic leaders didn’t follow the proper procedure when they initiated this whole process, shortly before the 2025 elections. Republicans got a couple of favorable rulings from a circuit court in Tazewell County but the state Supreme Court has at least agreed to let the statewide vote take place, although the latter has not actually issued a ruling on the merits of the case. This puts the commonwealth’s highest court in the odd—but, as Cardinal News’s Dwayne Yancey has found, not unprecedented—position of having to rule on the legality of a ballot measure after the vote has concluded. We could understand if judges on the court are privately hoping the ballot measure fails, if only so that this case is rendered moot.

In the abstract, there is likely an anti-gerrymandering majority in the state. For instance, something that the “No” side points to is that in 2020, the ballot measure that established an independent redistricting commission that was held in conjunction with the presidential election, passed with about two-thirds of the vote. Even while Democrats and their allies have enjoyed a financial advantage and are trying to sell a “Yes” vote as a means to push back against Donald Trump, as Semafor’s Dave Weigel describes in his dispatch, there is a degree of contrition in the Yes campaign’s tone. Something we’ve noticed is that surrogates from the Yes side are quick to point out that, if approved, the measure would be temporary—although, if the measure passes comfortably, it might encourage Democrats to take a crack at trying to eliminate the redistricting commission entirely ahead of the next census (that would also require going back to the voters).

At a broad level, Virginia Democrats are trying to pull off something their counterparts in California did last year: persuade voters to look past some of their good government inclinations to approve a gerrymander. Proposition 50, championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), passed by just under 29 percentage points—with that margin, the Yes position ran just over 8.7 percentage points better than Kamala Harris’s showing in 2024, as she carried the state 58%-38%.

Virginia, as Republicans have rightfully pointed out since it became clear that the Old Dominion would hold a similar vote, is just not as blue a state as California, a reality that gives Democrats less room for error. True, but if the “Yes” position overperformed Harris in Virginia by as much as it did in California, Democrats would be on track to prevail next week by close to 15 points—roughly in line with now-Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s margin last year.

But public polling does not suggest a Democratic win as resounding as Spanberger’s victory.

During 2026, there have been only a handful of public polls released on the vote. As can often be the case with ballot issues, how the question is phrased matters. For instance, one of the most challenging polls for proponents of the measure was a mid-February survey from Roanoke College, where it was failing 52%-44%. However, that survey noted that the map was “thought to favor Democrats in 10 of the 11 congressional districts in Virginia.” A more recent poll, from the Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, used the exact wording that is on the ballot and found the measure passing 52%-47%. This is, as an aside, not to single out Roanoke College for criticism—if anything, its findings reinforce that the outcome Democrats want in Virginia would likely not be as easy to achieve as what they got in California.

A poll from State Navigate that was released yesterday painted a picture that was very similar to what the Washington Post/Schar School found: the amendment is leading by a 51%-45% margin. State Navigate attributes the relatively small margin, vis-à-vis last year’s contests, to movement among “true” independents (as the state lacks partisan registration, all Virginia voters could be called nominally independent): in their polling, Spanberger carried these voters by 24 points last year but this group is voting No by that same margin.

Another thing that the Washington Post/Schar School poll and State Navigate agree on is that Spanberger’s approval rating is basically even—the former found her up slightly, at 47%-46% approve vs. disapprove, while the latter has her at 47%-47%. Since taking office, Spanberger has had to negotiate some intraparty fights on her own side while dealing with GOP opposition that has been—especially online—vocal and constant.

During her time in the House, Spanberger was able to credibly present herself as almost “above” partisan politics. She was typically ranked as the most bipartisan member of the Virginia delegation and ran ads featuring Republican supporters. But having the hot potato of redistricting immediately thrown into her lap probably limited her capacity to make a good first impression on her constituents, especially because many voters—though, perhaps not enough for a majority of next week’s electorate—view the whole mid-decade endeavor as gratuitous.

Even if Spanberger’s image has taken a hit in recent months, the nationalized nature of the vote could still end up being the decisive factor that saves Democrats—both polls have Trump’s standing underwater in the state by double-digits.

Going into this election, one of the unknowns was how turnout dynamics would shake out. While Virginia, to the delight of political nerds, has some type of election every November, ballot questions are typically held alongside those general elections. Going by a list of 110 recent statewide ballot questions furnished by the Virginia Department of Elections, the most recent case that did not take place in November was in 1970, where a couple of proposed constitutional amendments appeared on the July primary ballot.

Aside from the unusual timing of the measure, there are political realities that each side is contending with. While Democrats, as we’ve documented frequently, have the higher propensity coalition, this vote likely feels more existential for state GOP partisans: after losing their statewide clout last year in a drubbing, they could now lose much of their federal representation.

But turnout so far has been broadly similar to what last year’s general election saw. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, as of Wednesday, just over 1 million early votes had been cast; this puts the current totals only slightly under what was accumulated at this point ahead of the 2025 general election. One complicating factor when comparing the early vote in this election to previous cycles is that some localities, especially larger ones, have offered fewer satellite voting locations than they did last year, or they have opened them later during the early voting timeline. That early voting has more or less kept pace with last year’s gubernatorial race is impressive, although we’ll have to see what turnout on Election Day looks like. We may note that last year, Proposition 50 also saw midterm level turnout—it drew more votes than the 2022 gubernatorial race but fell short of 2018’s total.

To get some benchmarks for Tuesday’s vote, let’s consider a key result from last year.

The closest statewide result from 2025 came in the race for the Attorney General office. Jason Miyares (R), the then-incumbent who had fundraised well, lost his seat to former Delegate Jay Jones, a Democrat who entered the final stretch of the campaign on the defensive after violent text messages he sent came to light. Even with his own baggage, and the incumbent’s strength, Jones outperformed Kamala Harris to win by about 6.7%. In that election, Democratic partisans held their nose to vote for a candidate they may have found unsavory to achieve a preferable policy outcome—since taking office, for instance, Jones has frequently sued the Trump administration. Similarly, Democratic voters might not like how the new map would carve up the state, but they could nonetheless see the vote as a vehicle to check Trump. Map 1 shows that 2025 result.

Map 1: 2025 Virginia Attorney General result

In that race, Montgomery County, which includes Virginia Tech and is often the only blue county west of Roanoke, was the locality that most closely matched the statewide outcome, backing Jones by 7.3%. As part of his coalition, Jones also carried several relatively large localities by less than his statewide margin. This includes Chesapeake City (5.3%), Stafford County (3.4%), Virginia Beach (1.5%), and James City County (.9%). Most of these localities are colored the lightest shade of blue on Map 1. These localities will likely tell the story of the election: if the redistricting vote is failing in several, or most, of those localities, that would be a great sign for the No side.

Something that proponents of the measure argue is that next week’s vote probably won’t be the end of this year’s mid-decade redistricting efforts—and Republicans are likelier to gain from any post-Virginia developments.

Florida Republicans, who have been rumored since last year to be eyeing a new map, were originally set to hold a special legislative session next week. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has pushed that session back to the week of April 28. A later session could give Florida Republicans more time to internalize and react to whatever Virginia does.

Using 2024 presidential data, it would not be that hard to draw a map with multiple additional Trump-won seats in Florida. However, with subsequent special elections in mind, some Republican members of the Florida delegation are cautioning legislators against trying to squeeze too many more seats out of what is already a gerrymandered map. Converting current Harris-won seats into Trump-won seats in Florida might not be enough to actually flip them in what is shaping up to be a good Democratic environment in November, anyway.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s eventual decision in the Callais case also continues to loom over all of this. The U.S. Supreme Court very well may weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act to some extent. Southern Republicans would be obvious beneficiaries of a maximalist ruling, which could allow them to eliminate several heavily Black (read Democratic) House districts across the South. The high court has designated tomorrow as a day that it could release opinions, so the long-awaited ruling could come then, although it also may not come out until the end of June.

By tomorrow, with the exception of the two states we’ve already discussed (Virginia and Florida), all states in the former Confederacy have either already held primaries or have closed their filing window—however, it may be possible for states that have not held their primaries yet, like Alabama and Louisiana, to re-open filing (in this cycle’s redistricting wars, one should expect the unexpected). Even if the eventual Callais decision has more of an impact on 2028 than 2026, a pro-Republican ruling could still conceivably give the Yes side of the Virginia measure a late boost if it comes out tomorrow.

Finally, in early February, we laid out the rating changes we’d consider if the Virginia amendment passes and is not effectively set aside by the state Supreme Court. As it is, Districts 1, 5, and 6 are all Republican-held seats where we currently favor the incumbent party to some degree—if the measure passes, they would all be rated as at least Leans Democratic.

On the current map, VA-2, in the Virginia Beach-area, was almost evenly split in 2024, as it went to Trump by less than half a point. We rate the current version as a Toss-up. Originally, we thought would keep that rating when the new map was unveiled; Democrats turned it into a Harris-won seat, though it remained very marginal. However, not long after our February analysis, legislative Democrats switched some territory between districts 2 and 3—this bumped Harris’s margin in the former up to almost 5 points. If the proposed map becomes operative, that change would be enough for us to designate Rep. Jen Kiggans (R, VA-2) an underdog against her predecessor, and the likely Democratic nominee for that seat this year, former Rep. Elaine Luria (D).

J. Miles Coleman is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. He also serves as the Center’s Media Relations Coordinator. Follow him on Twitter @jmilescoleman.

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Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.