Georgia Senate: The Peach State Ripens for Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— A combination of dominant fundraising, stable polling, and a favorable political environment has strengthened Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-GA) chances for reelection in his purple state.

— Even if Rep. Mike Collins (R, GA-10) gains ground against Ossoff as Republican voters consolidate, recent Georgia elections suggest Democrats can withstand heavy losses among white voters and still prevail statewide.

— Georgia may look competitive on paper, but the outcome itself appears increasingly predictable.

Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change

Republicans face a steeper climb in Georgia

In Georgia, first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) has stood out for most of the 2026 cycle: He is the only Democrat running for reelection in a state that Donald Trump carried in 2024. Earlier in the cycle, Georgia and Michigan were frequently discussed in tandem as the GOP’s two most realistic pickup opportunities in a cycle where the party would otherwise be playing defense. But while Michigan has remained highly competitive, Georgia has increasingly looked like more of a reach for Republicans.

One of the most concrete indicators of the race’s trajectory has been monetary, as Ossoff has spent much of the cycle posting formidable fundraising numbers. During the second quarter of 2026, he raised a shade over $20 million—only state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee in the closely-watched Texas Senate race, raised more during that period. Ossoff also ended the quarter with $42 million on hand.

Though Rep. Mike Collins (R, GA-10) had to navigate a primary and then a runoff during the most recent fundraising quarter, the candidates entered the general election in different financial universes. Collins raised just over $2 million during the quarter and has about the same amount on hand. Spending from outside groups could level this disparity to some degree, but Ossoff has proven to be one of the cycle’s strongest fundraisers.

Collins’s transition to the general election has not been seamless. Earlier this month, CNN reported that his son-in-law had promoted white nationalist and antisemitic content on social media. While this story did not make for a campaign-ending scandal, it nevertheless likely represented an unwelcome distraction for Collins, who already has a reputation as a social media provocateur, as he sought to pivot toward the fall campaign.

Ossoff has maintained a lead in public polls that have come out during this calendar year, although he has done so at times by margins that are, in our estimation, likely too good to be true for Democrats. Several weeks ago, a survey from Fox News, which was fielded not too long after Collins won a GOP runoff, put Ossoff ahead 56%-43%.

More recently, a poll from the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) done for AARP gave Ossoff a smaller, but still very comfortable, 52%-43% lead. While “crosstab diving” is sometimes risky, even with high-quality surveys such as this one, we’d note that the AARP poll found Ossoff holding up very well with white voters—he was “only” losing them by 25 points, trailing Collins 61%-36%. For some context, if exit polls are to be believed, when Ossoff won his seat in a 2021 runoff, he lost whites 71%-29% to now-former Sen. David Perdue (R). In 2022, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) finished about a point ahead of GOP nominee Herschel Walker (R) in advance of a runoff victory while taking the same 29% share of the white vote. As a small logistical side note, none of Georgia’s major statewide races this year appear to feature third party candidates, as the Libertarians lost automatic ballot access following the 2024 elections; so unlike the 2020 and 2022 cycles, the Senate race will be decided in November, as opposed to a later runoff.

Of course, we’d be surprised if Ossoff ultimately maintained quite this much strength with white voters. Even if the AARP sample is representative, white voters may “come home” to the GOP as Election Day gets closer; it is also possible that some recent polls have modestly undersampled Republican-leaning whites. Either dynamic would likely allow Collins to overperform what his current polling suggests. However, both Ossoff and Warnock won statewide while losing white voters by roughly 40 points—they also did so in years that were less blue than 2026 is likely to be. So Collins’s poll numbers may well go up even if the basic character of the race remains similar.

Perhaps another way to describe our thinking is that, while we can easily see this race being decided by a mid-single-digit margin, we are increasingly confident of the outcome. While we have had the race rated as Leans Democratic, by this point, it would be a true shock if Ossoff actually went on to lose. In fact, zooming out somewhat, the bigger question for Ossoff may not be whether he can hold his own seat, but whether he can pull former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee for governor, over the line with him—she is locked in a competitive race against free-spending Republican businessman Rick Jackson.

With all of this, the Georgia Senate race is moving from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.

Some of our more attentive readers may note that this move would push Georgia into a more Democratic category than New Hampshire, a state that is several points bluer by its recent presidential voting history. However, part of the reason is that former Sen. John Sununu, the likely GOP nominee, comes from a popular political family and is more associated with the Bush era of the party, making him a better fit for his state than some other challengers across the country. New Hampshire also has an idiosyncratic reputation, although it’s also fair to point out that Republicans have not had success in federal races there for a decade, even as Republicans have done well at the state political level in recent years (indeed, Sununu likely benefits from sharing the same last name as his brother, the former popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu).

To be clear, we still favor Rep. Chris Pappas (D, NH-1) to hold this open seat for Democrats—and he may ultimately win by a more comfortable margin than what Ossoff gets in Georgia. However, our more competitive rating in New Hampshire, at least for now, is somewhat of a nod to the state’s independent-minded electorate.

So, while Georgia may ultimately produce a closer result than what the contests in some other Democratic-held Senate seats see, it also appears increasingly unlikely to flip.

J. Miles Coleman is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. He also serves as the Center’s Media Relations Coordinator. Follow him on Twitter @jmilescoleman.

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Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.