Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Heading into Election Day 2010, Rasmussen Reports polling showed a huge lead for Republicans on the Generic Congressional Ballot that accurately projected the historic gains of more than 60 seats in the House of Representatives. We didn’t poll individual House districts, but the two statewide House races we polled in the Dakotas came very close to the actual results.
As for the Senate, Rasmussen Reports projected 48 seats for the Democrats and 45 for the Republicans. We also listed seven Toss-Ups – California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington and West Virginia - in the final Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.
The two parties split those seven Toss-Up races, which is what you’d expect. Four were won by Democrats, two by Republicans, and one (Washington) remains too close to call. For a look at our polling results and analysis in the Toss-up states, click here.
Every pollster misses something along the way and our biggest miss came in Nevada. Our final survey in that Senate race showed Republican challenger Sharron Angle ahead 49% to 45% but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid won 50% to 45%. The two candidates had been three points apart or less in eight of the nine surveys we conducted in the state since July. To read more analysis on polling in Nevada, click here.
We also had three leaners in our final Senate rankings– Connecticut leaning toward Democrat Richard Blumenthal, Missouri toward Republican Roy Blunt and Wisconsin toward the GOP’s Ron Johnson. All fell the way our numbers projected.
For a full state-by-state list of our final Senate race polling numbers versus the actual results, click here.
The final Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard showed 10 races as Toss-Ups – California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon and Rhode Island. Seven of the races were won by the candidates we showed ahead in our final surveys. The other three races remain too close to call.
For a full state-by-state list of Rasmussen Reports’ final gubernatorial race polling numbers versus the actual results, click here.
In the 2009 New Jersey Governor's race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. Rasmussen Reports final polling in New Jersey was closest of all to the actual results. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!"
In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.
In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates' totals within half a percentage point by (see our 2004 results).
For 2010, a pre-election column by Scott Rasmussen projected that the Republicans would gain 55 or more seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats. Nearly final results show the Republicans will end up with more than 60 House seats and 47 or 48 Senate seats.
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