As Labor Day draws near, the race for Governor of Massachusetts remains very competitive.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Bay State finds Patrick with 39% support, while Republican Charlie Baker picks up 34% of the vote. Democrat-turned-Independent candidate Tim Cahill continues to trail with 18%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

The current figures are little changed from a month ago  and the race remains rated as Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports 2010 Gubernatorial Scoreboard.  Toplines and trends can be seen here  while Platinum Members can review detailed demographic crosstabs and other information.

The fluid nature of the race is highlighted by the fact that a large segment of the electorate is still open to changing their mind. Just 64% of Patrick’s supporters are certain that they will vote for him and won’t change their mind. Only 58% of Baker’s supporters are that certain. Not surprisingly, the level of certainty is lowest for the third party candidate—28% of Cahill’s supporters are sure they will end up voting for him.

As a result, when leaners are included, the race at the top becomes even closer—Patrick 44% Baker 42%, and Cahill 8%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. The approach anticipates the fact that support for third party candidates typically declines as Election Day draws near. This is the first Election 2010 survey in Massachusetts to include leaners.

Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.

It is important to note that the percentage who say they’ll vote for someone other than the incumbent has held steady around the 50% mark all year. In the current survey, 52% say they’ll vote against Patrick when first asked while 50% say the same when leaners are included.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on September 1, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Patrick is viewed Very Favorably by 21% of Massachusetts voters and Very Unfavorably by 27%.  Those numbers reflect a slight improvement for the governor.

For Baker, Very Favorables are ten percent (10%) and Very Unfavorables are at eight percent (8%).

Five percent (5%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Cahill, while 14% view him Very Unfavorably.

Patrick remains by far the best-known candidate, but at this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Sixty-four percent (64%) view Patrick as politically liberal while 21% say moderate.

For Baker, the numbers are 62% conservative and 21% moderate.

Cahill, a former Democrat, is seen as moderate by 38%, conservative by 33% and liberal by 18%.

Forty-eight percent (48%) consider Patrick’s views to be in the mainstream while 36% say they’re extreme.

Baker’s views are considered mainstream by 56% and extreme by just 20%.

For Cahill, the numbers are 53% mainstream and 18% extreme.

Only 6% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent while 62% say it’s poor. Twenty-three percent (23%) say it’s getting better while 46% say it’s getting worse.

Most Massachusetts voters (55%) favor a law requiring everyone to buy or obtain health insurance. That’s well above the national average.

Fifty-six percent (56%) approve of the job President Obama is doing, but 45% disapprove. This is unchanged from Junly and remains considerably higher than the level of approval Obama earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. 

Governor Patrick earns approval from 46% of the state’s voters, down four points since late July. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove. Those figures include 21% who Strongly Approve and 33% who Strongly Disapprove.

Rasmussen Reports also has released polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Alaska,   Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon,   Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

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See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Platinum Members only.