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Election 2010: West Virginia Senate Special Election

West Virginia Senate: Manchin (D) Still Slightly Ahead of Raese (R)

Monday, November 01, 2010

Democratic Governor Joe Manchin still holds a slight lead over Republican John Raese in the final hours of West Virginia’s surprisingly close special U.S. Senate race.

The final Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of the contest finds Manchin with the support of 50% of the state’s Likely Voters, while 46% prefer Raese. One percent (1%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.

The race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power.

Five days ago, Manchin edged from behind to a three-point lead, 49% to 46%, the first time he’d been ahead in the race since mid-September. In recent weeks, however, the highly popular governor has repeatedly distanced himself from President Obama and his policies which are highly unpopular in West Virginia.

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and rock guitarist Ted Nugent swung through the state to campaign for Raese on Saturday, but Manchin later told reporters that he, too, was “friends” with Palin. This new survey was taken Sunday night.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, says that this is one of the pivotal races to watch early on Election Night. “If Manchin holds on to a narrow victory as projected, it means the Republicans will have a tough time winning control of the U.S. Senate. If, on other hand, Raese manages to pull off an upset, it means the Republicans will have an even bigger  night than expected and will be favored to take the Senate.”

Rasmussen has an article in today’s Wall Street Journal  noting that Tuesday’s election results reflect a loss for the Democrats but not a win for the Republicans.

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in West Virginia was conducted on October 31, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What percentage of voters in the state say this race is mostly about the Obama agenda? Which candidate is viewed as more mainstream? How important is Raese’s house in Florida to voters? Become a Platinum member and find out. 

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