Election 2010: Senate Balance Of Power

Balance of Power: Kentucky Moves from Leans GOP to Solid GOP

Wednesday, September 08, 2010

New polling in Kentucky has moved that state's U.S. Senate race from Leans Republican to Solid Republican.

Other recent changes came from polling in Alaska, Ohio, Washington and West Virginia.

Current projections suggest that the Democrats would hold 48 seats after Election Day while the Republicans would hold 45. Seven states are in the Toss-Up category (California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Washington. Six of the seven Toss-Ups are seats currently held by Democrats. Ohio is the only exception.

Republicans have the edge in five Democratic-held Senate seats--Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, Delaware and Pennsylvania.

At the moment, no Republican-held seats appear headed for the Democratic column.

The state results and overall projections will be updated whenever new polling data justifies a change (to learn how Rasmussen Reports determines its Balance of Power rankings, click here).

In the table below, the states marked in red currently have a Republican senator. Those in blue currently have a Democratic senator.

Solid Dem	Lean Dem	Toss-Up	Lean GOP	Solid GOP
Hawaii	Connecticut	California	Alaska	Alabama
Maryland	West Virginia	Colorado	Delaware	Arizona
New York		Illinois	Florida	Arkansas
New York (S)		Ohio	Missouri	Georgia
Oregon		Nevada	North Carolina	Idaho
Vermont		Washington	N. Hampshire	Indiana
		Wisconsin	Pennsylvania	Iowa
				Kansas
				Kentucky
				Louisiana
				North Dakota
				Oklahoma
				South Carolina
				South Dakota
				Utah

Recent changes include:

Date	State	Shift From	Shift To	Dem	GOP	Toss-up
9/8/10	Kentucky	Leans GOP	Solid GOP	48	45	7
9/2/10	Washington	Leans Dem	Toss-Up	48	45	7
9/1/10	Alaska	Solid GOP	Leans GOP	49	45	6
8/31/10	Ohio	Leans GOP	Toss-Up	49	45	6
8/30/10	West Virginia	Solid Dem	Leans Dem	49	46	5
8/26/10	Florida	Toss-Up	Leans GOP	49	46	5
8/25/10	California	Leans Dem	Toss-Up	49	45	6
8/18/10	Nevada	Leans Dem	Toss-Up	50	45	5
8/17/10	Pennsylvania	Toss-Up	Leans GOP	51	45	4
8/17/10	Ohio	Toss-Up	Leans GOP	51	44	5
8/13/10	Connecticut	Solid Dem	Leans Dem	51	43	6
8/5/10	North Carolina	Solid GOP	Leans GOP	51	43	6
8/4/10	Ohio	Leans GOP	Toss-Up	51	43	6
7/30/10	Washington	Toss-Up	Leans Dem	51	44	5
7/30/10	Pennsylvania	Leans GOP	Toss-Up	50	44	6
7/29/10	Missouri	Toss-Up	Leans GOP	50	45	5
7/28/10	Nevada	Toss-Up	Leans Dem	50	44	6
7/20/10	Ohio	Toss-Up	Leans GOP	49	44	7
7/19/10	Pennsylvania	Toss-Up	Leans GOP	49	43	8
7/15/10	Delaware	Solid GOP	Leans GOP	49	42	9
7/7/10	North Carolina	Toss-Up	Solid GOP	49	42	9
7/6/10	Balance of Power Published - Initial BoP Data			49	41	10

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polling information. We poll on a variety of topics in the fields of politics, business and lifestyle, updating our site’s content on a news cycle throughout the day, everyday.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here.

United States Senate Balance of Power Tables:

Current Projected Result
Democrats	48
Republicans	45
Toss-Up	7

Election 2010 To Date
Solid Democratic	6
Leans Democratic	2
Toss-Up	7
Leans Republican	7
Solid Republican	15

No Senate Race In 2010
Democrats	40
Republicans	23

*Independent Senators and candidates in CT, FL and VT are counted here as Democrats

U.S. Senate Snapshot:
Held/Solid Democratic	46
Leans Democratic	2
Toss-Up	7
Leans Republican	7
Held/Solid Republican	38

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