Republican Rand Paul still holds a modest lead over Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky's U.S. Senate contest.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Paul picking up 49% support, while Conway earns the vote from 40%. Four percent (4%) prefer another candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

The latest results are almost identical to those found in three surveys conducted in July and June. With the exception of a big bounce immediately after his primary win, Paul has received between 46% and 50% support in match-ups with Conway since January. During the same period, Conway has earned between 34% and 42% of the vote.

When leaners are included in the new totals, Paul attracts 51% of the vote, while Conway picks up 41%. This is the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in Kentucky to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.

Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.
 The race remains Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power  rankings.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Paul’s supporters say that they are certain to vote for him in November. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Conway’s supporters say the same.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on August 17, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Paul is backed by 79% of Republican voters in Kentucky, while Conway earns the vote from 67% of Democrats. Paul holds a double-digit lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Three-out-of-four Kentucky voters (75%) regard Paul as a political conservative.

Forty-three percent (43%) believe Conway is politically liberal, but 32% say he’s moderate.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of the state's voters believe Paul’s views are mainstream, compared to 43% who think that about Conway’s. Roughly a third of Kentucky voters believe both Paul’s and Conway’s views are extreme.

However, 25% are not sure where Conway’s views lie, and 19% say the same of Paul's.

Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul, is viewed Very Favorably by 26% of Kentucky voters and Very Unfavorably by 19%.

Reviews for Conway, the state’s attorney general, are 19% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters in the state favor the requirement in the new national health care bill that every American must buy or obtain health insurance. Sixty-three percent (63%) oppose that requirement. This includes 18% who Strongly Favor it and 49% who are Strongly Opposed. These findings show a higher level of opposition to this requirement in Kentucky than among voters nationwide. 

By a 52% to 33% margin, Kentucky voters favor their state suing the federal government to prevent this requirement from staying in the law.

Sixty-two percent (62%) believe the so-called Bush tax cuts should be extended, higher than support nationally,  while 24% think they should be allowed to expire at the end of the year as currently scheduled. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say expiration of the tax cuts will help the economy, but 48% believe it will hurt economically.

If the tax cuts are continued, 50% say they should be extended for all Americans, while 41% say they should be extended for everyone but the wealthy.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Kentucky voters rate their own personal finances as good or excellent, but 18% say their finances are poor.

While only 15% say their finances are getting better, 52% say they are getting worse. This shows a slightly higher level of pessimism in Kentucky compared to results nationwide.

John McCain carried Kentucky over Obama in the November 2008 elections by a 58% to 41% spread. Thirty-six percent (36%) of Kentucky voters now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 63% disapprove, representing worse reviews for the president than last month. These ratings are also lower than the approval ratings Obama earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

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