The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Marco Rubio attracting 40% of the vote, while Charlie Crist picks up 30% in the race to become the state’s next U.S. senator. The new Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek earns 21% support.

This is the first poll of the race following Tuesday’s primary. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

In the last survey before the primary, it was Rubio at 38%, Crist at 33% and Meek 21%.

With the results of this new survey, Florida’s Senate race moves from Toss-Up to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Balance of Power summary. 

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Rubio supporters say they are certain of how they will vote and that they won’t change their mind before Election Day. Just 48% of Meek’s voters say the same, while 45% of Crist supporters are that certain. This suggests that the race could follow the typical pattern of three-way races with either Meek or Crist slipping out of contention and watching their support drift to the other.

Meek supporters who might switch their vote are overwhelmingly considering Crist as their option. Among Crist supporters, most would consider changing to Meek. However, more than a third say they might switch to Rubio. This is not surprising given that 37% of current Crist supporters disapprove of the way President Obama is doing his job.

Overall, Rubio gets 73% of the Republican vote, and Crist draws 19% support from his old party. Meek earns 41% support in his own party, while Crist picks up 36% of the Democratic vote. Among voters not affiliated with either party, Crist has a nine-point edge over Rubio (Platinum Members can review full demographic crosstabs). 

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This statewide telephone survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on August 25, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Additional data from this survey will be released later this week at www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of the state’s voters approve of the job Crist is doing as governor, continuing a noticeable downward trend over the past two months. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove.

Crist is viewed Very Favorably by 20% of Florida voters and Very Unfavorably by 18%.

Fifteen percent (15%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Meek, a U.S. congressman, while 19% view him Very Unfavorably.

For Rubio, former speaker of the Florida House, Very Favorables are 30% and Very Unfavorables 22%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Fifty percent (50%) of Florida voters rate the economy as the most important issue in the race, and those voters are fairly evenly divided between the three candidates.

Among all Florida voters, 46% now approve of the way the president is doing his job, while 55% disapprove. This is in line with voter sentiments nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Florida, the final Rasmussen Reports 2008 poll showed a toss-up with John McCain 50% of the vote and Barack Obama with 49%. Obama won the state 51% to 49%. In 2004, the final Rasmussen Reports poll showed George W. Bush leading John Kerry 50% to 47%. Bush won 52% to 47%.

In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Bill Nelson defeating Katherine Harris 54% to 37%. Nelson won 60% to 38%. In the governor’s race that year, the final Rasmussen poll showed Crist with an eight-point advantage over Jim Davis, 50% to 42%. Crist won by seven, 52% to 45%.

In the 2004 Senate race, Rasmussen polling showed Mel Martinez leading 49% to 47% over Betty Castor. Martinez won 49% to 48%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed House races in North Dakota and South Dakota and Senate races in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado,Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. 

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