Little has changed in the gubernatorial race in Ohio this month, with Republican John Kasich continuing to hold a small lead over incumbent Ted Strickland.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voter shows Kasich picking up 48% support, while the current governor earns 43% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer a different candidate, and another five percent (5%) are undecided.

At the end of last month, Kasich led 47% to 40%.

In late March and May, the candidates were basically tied. Prior to that time, Kasich had held modest leads over Strickland. Since December, Kasich’s support has remained in the narrow range of 46% to 49%, while Strickland’s in that same period has ranged from 38% to 45%.

Strickland was elected governor in 2006 with 60% of the vote, but with Ohio one of the hardest hit states economically, he's been wrestling with job and budget issues for much of his time in office. At this time, 44% of state’s voters approve of Strickland's job performance, while 55% disapprove. These findings have held steady for the past two months.

Kasich, a former congressman, holds a strong lead among male voters, while Strickland holds a slight edge among women. Voters not affiliated with either major political party favor the Republican by a nearly two-to-one margin.

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on July 19, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Republican Rob Portman holds a modest 45% to 39% lead over Democrat Lee Fisher in Ohio’s election for U.S. Senate. But Ohio has now gone from being a Toss-Up state to Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.

The economy and jobs continue to be key issues in a state that has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. While 27% of Ohio voters believe U.S. economic conditions are improving, 48% say they are getting worse.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of those who believe the economy is improving support Strickland, while 72% of those in the larger group who say the economy is getting worse back Kasich.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of all voters in the state favor repeal of the national health care reform law, while 35% oppose repeal.

Support for repeal is slightly higher than it is nationally. Forty-seven percent (47%) in Ohio Strongly Favor repeal of the law, while just 28% Strongly Oppose repeal.

Three-out-of-four voters who Strongly Favor repeal put their vote behind Kasich. Eighty-four percent (84%) of those who are Strongly Opposed favor Strickland.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) in Ohio would favor passage of an Arizona-like immigration law in their state, while 25% are opposed. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of those who favor such a law in Ohio support Kasich, while Strickland picks up the same amount of support from those who oppose.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) in Ohio disagree with the U.S. Department of Justice’s decision to challenge the legality of the law, but 31% agree. Still, 60% of Ohio voters favor a welcoming immigration policy that only excludes criminals and threats to national security.

The numbers on an Arizona-like law in the state and the Justice Department challenge are comparable to findings nationally. 

The governor earns Very Favorable reviews from 21% of Ohio voters, while 29% view him Very Unfavorably. Just four percent (4%) have no opinion of Strickland.

Reviews for Kasich are 19% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable. Another 20% do not know enough about Kasich to venture any kind of opinion about him.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Ohio, Rasmussen Reports' final survey before Election Day showed Obama and McCain tied at 49% in a race Obama won 51% to 47%. In 2004, Rasmussen polling showed George W. Bush defeating John Kerry in Ohio by a 50% to 46% margin. Bush won 51% to 49%.

In the 2006 Ohio race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Sherrod Brown beating Mike DeWine by 11 points, 54% to 43%. Brown won by 12, 56% to 44%. In the 2006 race for governor, Rasmussen polling showed Strickland leading Ken Blackwell by 25 points, 59% to 34%. Strickland won by 23, 60% to 37%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

Rasmussen Reports has released polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland,   Massachusetts, Michigan,   Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

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