Former Senator Mark Dayton and state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher are both running slightly stronger this month against their Republican and independent rivals in Minnesota’s race for governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Minnesota finds both hopefuls for the Democratic-Farm-Labor Party (DFL) nomination earning 40% of the vote in matchups to edge ahead of Republican Tom Emmer. Republican-turned-Independence Party candidate Tom Horner runs a distant third.

In May, Emmer, a member of the state House of Representatives, was running basically even with Dayton and Kelliher. 

Now  in a matchup with Dayton, Emmer earns 36% of the vote, while Horner picks up 10%. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided.

If Kelliher is the DFL candidate in the race, Emmer captures 35% of the vote with Horner at 11% and undecideds at 14%.

A third DFL contender, former state House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, also has moved up slightly from the previous survey to run even with Emmer. In that matchup, Entenza gets 37% of the vote to Emmer’s 36%, with Horner at 12%. Undecideds total 15%.

DFL voters will pick their nominee in an August 10 primary.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted on July 19, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters in the state are now evenly divided over the performance of current GOP Governor Tim Pawlenty who has chosen not to seek reelection: 49% approve of his job performance, down slightly from May, while another 49% disapprove.

Only seven percent (7%) rate the economy as good or excellent, while 48% say it’s bad. But voters in Minnesota are a bit more optimistic than those in many states over the economy’s future prospects: 38% say the economy’s getting worse, but nearly as many (33%) think it’s getting better.

The DFL candidates earn nearly two-thirds of the votes from those who say the economy is getting better. Emmer in every matchup picks up just over half the votes from those who say the economy is worsening.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Minnesota voters favor repeal of the national health care bill, up four points from May and just below support for repeal nationally. Forty percent (40%) oppose repeal of the measure. This includes 43% who Strongly Favor repeal and 29% who are Strongly Opposed.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of all voters in the state favor passage of an immigration law like Arizona’s in Minnesota, and only 27% are opposed. That’s comparable to findings nationally. 

Thirty-three percent (33%) agree with the U.S. Justice Department’s decision to challenge Arizona’s law in court, but 55% disagree with that decision. Fifty-nine percent (59%) favor a welcoming immigration policy that keeps out only national security threats, criminals and those who come here to live off the U.S. welfare system.

Kelliher is viewed Very Favorably by 15% of Minnesota voters and Very Unfavorably by 22%.

For Dayton, Very Favorables are 23% and Very Unfavorables 28%.

Seven percent (7%) share a Very Favorable opinion of Emmer, while 21% regard him Very Unfavorably.

Entenza is seen Very Favorably by 13% and Very Unfavorably by 20%.

Five percent (5%) hold a Very favorable view of Horner, and eight percent (8%) view him Very Unfavorably. He is by far the least-known candidate in the race, but it is important to note that he is the standard bearer for the party that elected former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura to the governorship in 1998.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of the state’s voters say they have voted for an independent candidate in the past. Thirty-one percent (31%) have not.

Twenty-five percent (25%) say they are more likely to vote for an independent in the upcoming election, but 47% say they are less likely to do so.

Forty-nine percent (49%) currently approve of the job President Obama is doing, down four points from May, while 50% disapprove. Still, that’s slightly better than Obama’s ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. 

Rasmussen Reports also has released recent polls on the 2010 governor's races in Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

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