Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

February 13, 2025Our Initial Senate Ratings: Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Majority By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— While Republicans, who will be defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026, may have the political environment working against them next year, they are still favored to retain the chamber.
— Part of the reason for this is that Democrats hold two of our three initial Toss-up races, Georgia and Michigan, while GOP-held North Carolina will likely see another hotly-contested Senate race.
— We are giving Maine’s Susan Collins (R) a degree of deference by starting her race as Leans Republican, although as the only Republican representing a Kamala Harris-won state, it is hard to see Democrats getting close to a majority without her seat.
— If Democrats were to be on track to regain the Senate by the end of the decade, they would almost certainly have to come out of the 2026 cycle with a net gain of seats.

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                            February 12, 2025The Power of Self-Interest By John Stossel
Politicians bash businesses.

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                            February 11, 2025What Kind of a Populist Is Elon Musk? By Daniel McCarthy
   Can the world's richest man be a populist?

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                            February 7, 2025Trump Rides the Vibes, for Better or Worse By Michael Barone
        After a flurry of activity -- the president's tariff threats and showdowns
February 6, 2025Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part Two: The Sun Belt By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala Harris gained in some fast-growing suburban counties, but it was not enough to cancel out the drift to Donald Trump elsewhere in those states.
— Arizona was Trump’s strongest of the presidential Toss-up states in part because its border counties continued to shift strongly in his direction.
— Trump carried Nevada because he was the best-performing Republican in Clark County (Las Vegas) in decades, although Washoe County (Reno) narrowly stuck with Harris.

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                            February 4, 2025What if Trump Finishes His Presidency by Easter? By Brian C. Joondeph
President Donald Trump is off to a blazing start, having accomplished more in two weeks than most administrations achieve in months or even years. At this blistering pace, what happens if he finishes his presidency by Easter?
By finished, I don’t mean that he is forced from office through impeachment or assassination, but he gets so much done in his first three months that nothing is left to do.

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                            February 4, 2025Can Trump Win Trade Wars Before They Start? By Daniel McCarthy
        Donald Trump knows exactly what he's doing with tariffs.

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                            February 4, 2025America's 21st-Century Sputnik Moment Has Arrived By Stephen Moore
        Just how much longer will American parents, their kids, business leaders

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                            January 31, 2025Trump Is Moving Fast and Breaking Things By Michael Barone
Move fast and break things. That's the original operating philosophy of Facebook founder and Meta mogul Mark Zuckerberg, and it seems to be the operating procedure of President Donald Trump in these first weeks of his second term.
January 30, 2025Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part One: The Industrial North By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Before the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball isolated several key counties in Toss-up states. We are circling back to see what the results in those counties said about the overall election.
— Several Democratic-trending suburban and touristy counties in the Industrial North continued to move left, although just not by the margins that Kamala Harris would have needed.
— In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump’s notable gains in the Scranton area played into his strong 2024 showing in the state.
— Sticking to the Industrial North generally, and in 2026 news, Sen. Gary Peters’s (D-MI) retirement opens up a Senate seat in Michigan for the second time in as many cycles.

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                            January 29, 2025The Chainsaw President! By John Stossel
Finally, a real libertarian is president.

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                            January 28, 2025A Smart Way to Pay for the Trump Tax Cut: Auction Federal Assets By Stephen Moore
The federal government owns multiple trillions of dollars of federal assets -- from land, to buildings, to patent rights, to mineral rights, to immigrant visas, to oil fields to trucks and trains and unused office furniture equipment.

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                            January 28, 2025The Pro-Life Federalism of Trump and Vance By Daniel McCarthy
Reports of the pro-life movement's death have been greatly exaggerated.

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                            January 24, 2025Is Donald Trump the Second Coming of Andrew Jackson? By Michael Barone
The portrait of Andrew Jackson has returned to the wall of the Oval Office, put up in time to greet President Donald Trump as he entered for the first time as the 47th president.
January 23, 2025How Donald Trump Changed Pennsylvania’s Electorate: Tracking Voter Registration Trends Over the Past Decade By Nick Field
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Pennsylvania changed in the Trump era from being a somewhat Democratic-leaning state to a top presidential battleground, voting for the winning candidate in all 3 of Donald Trump’s elections.
— One indicator of the GOP’s growth in the state is changing voter registration patterns, as Republicans have drastically reduced the Democrats’ voter registration edge in the state in the Trump era.
— All but 3 of the state’s 67 counties have seen the Republicans net registered voters since 2015.

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                            January 22, 2025The End of ESG By John Stossel
"Sustainability" investments became popular a few years back.
So-called experts said companies shouldn't just focus on profit. They should put more effort into being "nice."
Funds pushing ESG (environmental, social and governance) were all the rage.
January 21, 2025Trump Inaugurates a New Era By Daniel McCarthy
Breathtaking: There's no other word for the sheer ambition and scope of Donald Trump's second inaugural address.

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                            January 17, 2025For Now, Trump Is Succeeding While His Opponents Fail By Michael Barone
"It is not enough in life that one succeed," the droll economist John Kenneth Galbraith is supposed to have said. "Others must fail."
January 16, 2025The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same historically-low total as 2020.
— But there are 13 Democrats in Donald Trump-won districts compared to just 3 Republicans in Kamala Harris-won districts.

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                            January 15, 2025Anarchists Versus Libertarians By John Stossel
        "Donald Trump will be a tyrant!"