Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
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                            October 8, 2024Climate Change Danger – Truth or Misinformation? By Brian C. Joondeph
Climate change continues to be a hot election issue, at least for Democrats.
At the recent vice-presidential debates, one of Republican J.D. Vance’s several debate opponents, CBS’s Norah O’Donnell, when asking about Hurricane Helen, started not with disaster relief, but the usual Democrat canard of climate change: “Scientists say climate change makes these hurricanes larger, stronger and more deadly because of the historic rainfall.”
Is this the important issue Democrats claim it to be?
Pew Research ranked climate change 10th on a list of 10 top issues for voters in the 2024 election.

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                            October 8, 2024How Donald Trump Can Win the Popular Vote By Daniel McCarthy
Democrats should brace for a shock four weeks from now -- the possibility not just of a victory for former President Donald Trump but a win so big Trump even beats Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote.

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                            October 4, 2024The Vice Presidential Debate May Matter By Michael Barone
Vice presidential debates don't matter, we have been assured over and over. No one votes for vice president or a presidential nominee for her or his choice of running mate. You can go back and look at snap polls taken after past vice presidential debates and find basically zero correlation with the final election results.
October 3, 2024Abortion Rights, Elections, Criminal Justice, and Much More: The 2024 State Ballot Issues to Watch By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— This year, 41 states have at least one measure on the ballot for voters to weigh in on, and many have multiple measures.
— The highest-profile issue on the ballot this year—as was the case in 2022 and 2023—is abortion. In all, 10 states have pro-abortion rights measures on the ballot, including such purple and red states as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. Nebraska also has an anti-abortion measure on the ballot.
— Voters will also be asked about a wide range of election-related issues, including ranked-choice voting, redistricting and non-citizen voting. Other common topics involve proposals on criminal justice, raising the minimum wage, recreational marijuana, and education policy.

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                            October 1, 2024Iran Targets America's Elections -- and Trump By Daniel McCarthy
A tyrannical foreign regime is doing everything in its power to place its favored candidate in the White House.

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                            October 1, 2024Can We All Get Along? Yes, By Letting the States Decide. By Stephen Moore
At the time of this writing, the outcome of the presidential race is pretty close to being a coin flip. So what I write is not in any way influenced by who will win in November, since that is unknowable.

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                            September 27, 2024Harris’s Ghosts from Polling Past By Brian C. Joondeph
In Charles Dickens’s classic “A Christmas Carol,” curmudgeon Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by Christmas past, present, and future ghosts, transforming him into a kinder and more generous soul.

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                            September 27, 2024The Harris Campaign Might Need to Change Its Strategy By Michael Barone
In my time as a political consultant, I observed that carrying out a campaign strategy was surprisingly simple. You settled on a basic strategy, emphasizing the candidate's strong points on issues and character, framing the election in terms favorable to most voters. Then you just carried it out.
September 26, 2024Places to Watch, Part One: The Industrial North By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— While the 7 Toss-up states on our current Electoral College map will have outsized importance nationally, each of those states has several key counties that we will be watching.
— In this article, we’ll be isolating a few counties from the “Blue Wall” states that could tell the tale of the 2024 election.
— In Wisconsin, Ozaukee County is the bluest of the “WOW” counties while Door County has been a great bellwether in recent cycles.
— To win back Michigan, Donald Trump would probably like to flip back Saginaw County and keep the Cherry Coast red.
— In Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris may be poised to narrow Trump’s margin in Cumberland County, although we are curious how she’ll fare in Joe Biden’s native Lackawanna County.

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                            September 25, 2024Bunk From a Cabinet Secretary By John Stossel
Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich now makes videos, like I do.

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                            September 24, 2024Trump's Would-Be Assassin's Explanation By Daniel McCarthy
The man who intended to murder former President Donald Trump on Sept. 18 has explained in his own words why he wanted to do it.

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                            September 24, 2024Is Washington Distorting the Numbers? By Stephen Moore
We all know that math scores have been scandalously trending downward for many years, but the folks in the government should at least be able to count.

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                            September 23, 2024Barely Six Weeks Until Election Day: Where are the Polls? By Brian C. Joondeph
Election Day is quickly approaching, just over six weeks away. Each day brings surprises, from another assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump to another "I grew up as a middle-class kid" from Vice President Kamala Harris.

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                            September 20, 2024Voters Don't Want Harris' or Trump's Campaign Policies By Michael Barone
Neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday's front page, has any proposals to cut the rapidly increasing national debt. Instead, both are proposing to hand out goodies to strategically positioned voters.
September 19, 2024Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We continue to view the race for the chamber as effectively a 50-50 proposition.
— The real playing field may be smaller than what we saw in the 2022 election cycle, if current outside spending is any indication.
— Beyond our rating changes, we have some observations about key races across the competitive map, including in Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Virginia.

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                            September 18, 2024Class Action Scams By John Stossel
Have you gotten a letter that says, "You may be entitled to compensation"?

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                            September 17, 2024When Character Assassination Becomes the Real Thing By Daniel McCarthy
If Democrats didn't believe they'd put former President Donald Trump in an assassin's crosshairs the first time, they have no excuse for pleading innocent now.

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                            September 13, 2024Kamala Harris Won the Debate, But Maybe Not the Election By Michael Barone
When I was in the polling business many years ago, our reports always started with the mood of the electorate, whether things were moving in the right direction or seriously off on the wrong track, then moved to two sections on character and issues.
September 12, 2024Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Swing state polls show an incredibly close race in our 7 Toss-up presidential states right now.
— Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.
— If polls are understating Donald Trump again, he of course is in a great position to win given how competitive he already is in the core swing states. But there are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.

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                            September 11, 2024Good Guys with Guns By John Stossel
Do you carry a gun?