— Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states.
— Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win.
— We consider a rematch of the 2020 election — Joe Biden versus Donald Trump — as the likeliest matchup, but not one that is set in stone.
For my new video, I asked people on the street, "If you could spend $30 billion trying to solve the world's problems, how would you spend it?"
In less than a year and a half America “elects” a new President, along with a third of the Senate and the entire House. At this point the leading contenders for the White House are Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Samuel Huntington got Ukraine wrong.
Are America's 45th and 46th presidents politically invulnerable? That's a conclusion you might come to from the response to the indictment of Donald Trump on June 8 and the guilty plea by Joe Biden's son Hunter announced on June 20.
— The once low-profile contests for attorney general and secretary of state have become increasingly important for driving policy outcomes in the states, particularly in setting the rules for how elections are run.
— The current campaign cycle doesn’t promise quite as much drama as there was in 2022, when several key presidential battleground states played host to tight contests between Republicans aligned with former President Donald Trump and more mainstream Democrats.
— For the current 2023-2024 cycle, we are starting our handicapping by assigning 18 of the 23 races to either the Safe Republican or the Safe Democratic category. Still, a number of these states will undergo wide-open primaries with different ideological flavors of candidates. And in the general election, we see three races as highly competitive: the attorney general and secretary of state races in North Carolina and the AG race in Pennsylvania.
Politicians claim their bills bring us good things. Free health care! Child care! A cellphone for all!
A recent Wall Street Journal lead story reported that "Republicans and big business broke up.
When Americans think about conflict with China, Taiwan comes to mind first.
Some observations on special counsel Jack Smith's indictment of former President Donald Trump:
— The Supreme Court’s Allen v. Milligan decision should give Democrats at least a little help in their quest to re-take the House majority, but much remains uncertain.
— As of now, the Democrats’ best bets to add a seat in 2024 are in Alabama, the subject of the ruling, and Louisiana.
— It also adds to the list of potential mid-decade redistricting changes, which have happened with regularity over the past half-century.
— The closely-contested nature of the House raises the stakes of each state’s map, and redistricting changes do not necessarily have to be prompted by courts.
Those who live in or near the nation's capital, or routinely travel there, know that the Washington, D.C., region is home to the best airport in the country, Reagan National. It's also home to one of the worst airports, Dulles International.
Dictators and tyrants arrest or murder their political opponents. Stalin, Mao, Hitler, Castro, and Chavez are but a few examples. Their power is absolute, and any opposition is hastily eliminated, regardless of laws, ethics, or decency.
Gov. Chris Sununu (R-N.H.) is not running for president. In his state's first-in-the-nation primary, "I can be more effective for the Republican Party in ways few other leaders can," he wrote in the Washington Post.
— The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased in recent years. However, there is still a significant gender gap in most states as women have not reached parity in representation.
— The majority of women in state legislatures are Democrats. While more Republican women ran for office in 2022 than in previous years, that didn’t amount to closing the gender gap in representation.
— The percentage of women in state legislatures has increased more in Western and Northeastern states than in Midwestern and Southern states. This is likely due to a number of factors, including the political climate, the level of motivation and activism among women, and the availability of resources for women’s campaigns.
"Greed of the fossil fuel industry" is "destroying our planet," says Sen. Bernie Sanders. Young people agree. Their solution? Socialism.
The Wollman Rink episode, or, rather, the unduly optimistic conclusion I drew from it, explains a lot about Donald Trump's presidency and why he may not do as well against Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) in the contest for the Republican nomination, as current poll numbers suggest.
— In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome.
— The 2024 Electoral College map will reflect the 2020 census’s reallocation of electoral votes. Using this new map, the GOP will need to flip 34 electoral votes (down from 37) to reach 269.
— Using 2020 presidential election results, we can map out the different paths that Trump had to winning 269 electoral votes. These routes give us a template for how presidential candidates might plan their strategies for next year’s election.
— Flipping Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin is likely the GOP’s best chance at winning back the presidency. But there are other viable routes to 269 as well that involve Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
