Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

June 13, 2024Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans in What Remains a Toss-up Race By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We are making six Electoral College rating changes this week, all in favor of Republicans.
— However, we don’t really see a clear favorite in a presidential race with many confounding factors.
— We consider Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to all be must-wins for the Democrats. While one can hypothetically come up with paths to 270 electoral votes for Democrats without them, we don’t find those paths to be compelling.
— Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) remains a favorite in our ratings, but our shift of Pennsylvania to Toss-up in the presidential race prompts a concurrent change in his race, from Likely to Leans Democratic.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_john_stossel/success_in_classrooms/1736588-1-eng-US/success_in_classrooms.jpg" />
                
                            June 12, 2024Success in Classrooms By John Stossel
Government-run schools keep failing.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_daniel_mccarthy/1984_in_2024_orwell_was_right/1736534-1-eng-US/1984_in_2024_orwell_was_right.jpg" />
                
                            June 11, 20241984 in 2024: Orwell Was Right By Daniel McCarthy
Americans still read George Orwell's "Nineteen Eighty-Four," 75 years after it was first published on June 8, 1949.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_stephen_moore/biden_housing_scheme_could_ignite_another_2008_mortgage_crisis/1736517-1-eng-US/biden_housing_scheme_could_ignite_another_2008_mortgage_crisis.jpg" />
                
                            June 11, 2024Biden Housing Scheme Could Ignite Another 2008 Mortgage Crisis By Stephen Moore
Politicians in Washington have very short memories, so they repeat the same mistakes over and over.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/using_a_sham_case_to_undermine_democracy/1736226-1-eng-US/using_a_sham_case_to_undermine_democracy.jpg" />
                
                            June 7, 2024Using a 'Sham Case' to Undermine Democracy By Michael Barone
"A sham case, and everyone knows it." So writes the iconoclastic Matt Taibbi, once counted as a left-wing writer, and he's not the only one from outside MAGA precincts who has been appalled by the Manhattan district attorney's case that produced a guilty verdict against former President Donald Trump.
June 6, 2024President vs. Senate: What to Watch in the Polls, and What History Suggests By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— A persistent finding in swing state polls is that Democrats are doing better in Senate races than Joe Biden is doing in the presidential race.
— At the topline, 2016 and 2020 produced hardly any split presidential and Senate results, suggesting that perhaps the presidential and Senate polling should converge.
— However, even in those years, there still was variation from state to state between the presidential and Senate margins.
— Focusing on the Senate races in the presidential swing states distracts from the races that will truly decide the Senate majority: red state seats with Democratic incumbents, Montana and Ohio.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_john_stossel/freedom_under_trump/1735902-1-eng-US/freedom_under_trump.jpg" />
                
                            June 5, 2024Freedom Under Trump By John Stossel
Donald Trump recently spoke at the Libertarian National Convention.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_stephen_moore/hey_joe_where_are_all_the_ev_charging_stations/1735697-2-eng-US/hey_joe_where_are_all_the_ev_charging_stations.jpg" />
                
                            June 4, 2024Hey Joe: Where Are All the EV Charging Stations? By Stephen Moore
The Biden administration has spent tens of billions of dollars on green energy, yet last year the U.S. and the world used record amounts of fossil fuels.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_daniel_mccarthy/virginia_turns_toward_trump/1735680-1-eng-US/virginia_turns_toward_trump.jpg" />
                
                            June 4, 2024Virginia Turns Toward Trump By Daniel McCarthy
Donald Trump became president by flipping states no Republican nominee had won in nearly 20 years.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/why_doesn_t_the_biden_white_house_ditch_its_unpopular_border_policy/1735211-1-eng-US/why_doesn_t_the_biden_white_house_ditch_its_unpopular_border_policy.jpg" />
                
                            May 31, 2024Why Doesn't the Biden White House Ditch Its Unpopular Border Policy? By Michael Barone
For three and a half years, the Biden White House has seemed remarkably leakproof. Even amid popular backlash to administration policies -- the spending splurge in 2021 that was followed by sharp inflation in 2022 and 2023, the changes in enforcement of immigration laws that have produced numbers of incoming illegal immigrants unmatched even in border boom periods in the 1980s and '90s, and the endorsement of policies allowing biological men to compete in women's sports -- top officials have stuck to talking points and avoided finger-pointing.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/forget_the_national_polls_it_s_the_battleground_state_polls_that_count/1735066-1-eng-US/forget_the_national_polls_it_s_the_battleground_state_polls_that_count.jpg" />
                
                            May 30, 2024Forget the National Polls – It’s the Battleground State Polls that Count! By Brian Joondeph
Election season is well underway. President Joe Biden is mumbling and stumbling his way toward his party’s nomination for a second term, the final nail in the coffin of American greatness and exceptionalism.
May 30, 2024Districts of Change, Part Three: When Each District Was Most Democratic (and Most Republican) By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE—Using data from Dave’s Redistricting App, we are looking at when each district has leaned most Democratic and most Republican, compared to the national popular vote, since 2008.
—By this metric, Biden’s 2020 performance represented the best Democratic showing since 2008 in a plurality of districts (145 of 435).
—Though his result was less impressive in raw terms, when adjusting for the national popular vote, John McCain was the best-performing recent Republican in 143 districts, the most on the GOP side.
—Some familiar trends, such as Mitt Romney’s strength in white collar areas and Hillary Clinton’s support from Hispanics, show up when comparing district voting across the years.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_john_stossel/minimum_wage_folly/1734969-1-eng-US/minimum_wage_folly.jpg" />
                
                            May 29, 2024Minimum Wage Folly By John Stossel
California now leads the nation in imposing dumb wage laws.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_daniel_mccarthy/the_free_market_populism_of_javier_milei/1734782-1-eng-US/the_free_market_populism_of_javier_milei.jpg" />
                
                            May 28, 2024The Free-Market Populism of Javier Milei By Daniel McCarthy
   Javier Milei is a rock star.
   The president of Argentina was, in fact, in a Rolling Stones cover band as a teen.
   But now he plays stadiums -- like Buenos Aires' 8,400-capacity Luna Park -- as a political phenomenon, a charismatic cross between Donald Trump and Milton Friedman.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_stephen_moore/5_reasons_to_make_the_trump_tax_cut_permanent/1734765-1-eng-US/5_reasons_to_make_the_trump_tax_cut_permanent.jpg" />
                
                            May 28, 20245 Reasons to Make the Trump Tax Cut Permanent By Stephen Moore
   No issue defines the diametrically opposite economic philosophies of Joe Biden and Donald Trump than their position on the Trump tax cuts.
Trump wants to make those tax cuts permanent; Biden has repeatedly promised to tax America back to prosperity by repealing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. But there are so many factual errors swirling around regarding the Trump tax cuts that it's a wonder that the "truth screeners" on the internet haven't flagged this all as "disinformation."

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/biden_not_fooling_voters_on_economy/1734558-1-eng-US/biden_not_fooling_voters_on_economy.jpg" />
                
                            May 24, 2024Biden Not Fooling Voters on Economy  By Michael Barone
If you want to explain to a puzzled, left-leaning writer like The Atlantic's Annie Lowrey why most voters this year rate the economy during former President Donald Trump's term more favorably than the economy during President Joe Biden's, you might start with a pair of simple charts.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_john_stossel/scaremongers/1734344-1-eng-US/scaremongers.jpg" />
                
                            May 22, 2024Scaremongers By John Stossel
Have you heard about the "bee-pocalypse?" My new video explains.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_daniel_mccarthy/trump_s_sun_belt_hopes_and_rust_belt_needs/1734287-1-eng-US/trump_s_sun_belt_hopes_and_rust_belt_needs.jpg" />
                
                            May 21, 2024Trump's Sun Belt Hopes and Rust Belt Needs By Daniel McCarthy
Donald Trump's first election redrew the map of American politics; suddenly Pennsylvania and Michigan were in the Republican column for the first time since the 1980s.
But they didn't stay there: The Rust Belt states that made Trump president in 2016 sent Joe Biden to the White House in 2020.

                    <img src="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/_aliases/wide_266/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/the_world_s_and_the_pacific_rim_s_disastrous_population_implosion/1733973-2-eng-US/the_world_s_and_the_pacific_rim_s_disastrous_population_implosion.jpg" />
                
                            May 17, 2024The World's -- and the Pacific Rim's -- Disastrous Population Implosion By Michael Barone
Will the world be better off with fewer people? For years that has been a hypothetical question posed to suggest an affirmative answer. Fewer people, it was claimed, would mean less depredation of natural resources, less urban overcrowding, more room for other species to stretch their (actual or metaphorical) legs. Mankind was a parasite, a blight, and overpopulation a disease. Fewer people would mean a better Earth.
May 16, 2024The State Supreme Court Skirmishes By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— State supreme court elections are often ignored by the public and the media, but they can have a dramatic impact on public policy, especially in the post-Roe v. Wade era, when abortion policy is being sent back to the states.
— Numerically, 2024 is a very big year for such elections: They will be held in 33 states. And in several of those states, ideological control of the court could shift depending on the results.
— This year, Michigan, Ohio, Montana, North Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona, and Florida will be home to some of the most consequential supreme court elections.