Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

July 10, 2025Nebraska Senate: Osborn launches second run By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In Nebraska, Dan Osborn, an independent candidate who held Sen. Deb Fischer (R) to a single-digit win last year, announced he’d challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).
— Though Ricketts should be more formidable than Fischer, Osborn is still a credible challenger, so we are moving the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
— We are also rating an imminent special election in TN-7 as Likely Republican. Republicans are still clearly favored to hold it but the dynamics of recent low-turnout special elections could make it more competitive than one might otherwise think.
— There will be a trio of special elections in some deep blue districts later this year. While Democrats are heavy favorites to retain them all, AZ-7 could represent an opportunity to see if the GOP’s recent gains with Latinos are sticking.

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                            July 9, 2025What Would the Founders Think? An Independence Day Reality Check By Brian Joondeph
As we lit sparklers and grilled burgers this Fourth of July, a new Rasmussen Reports poll provided a sobering dose of reality. Only 36% of Americans believe the Founding Fathers would see today’s America as a success. Forty-one percent (41%) think they’d view it as a failure, and the rest aren’t sure.

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                            July 9, 2025Labor Unions Kill Jobs By John Stossel
Progressives love unions.

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                            July 8, 2025A Big Beautiful Test of GOP Principles and Discipline By Daniel McCarthy
The Big Beautiful Bill -- a massive package of tax relief, more funding for immigration enforcement, and savings from entitlement reforms -- is now law, and it's a triumph not only for President Donald Trump but for the whole Republican Party.

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                            July 8, 2025The Biggest Conservative Victory in 30 Years By Stephen Moore
Everyone knows that the "big, beautiful" tax bill signed into law on the Fourth of July lowers tax burdens for families and businesses. It also averts a $4 trillion tax increase starting next year. That's enough reason to heartily celebrate.

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                            July 4, 2025What the 12-Day War Hath Wrought By Michael Barone
Not many people today remember the exhilaration so many Americans felt after Israel's victory in the Six-Day War in June 1967. The liberal folks around me at work and law school then had been frustrated and puzzled at the lack of progress being made in Vietnam by the 448,000 U.S. troops stationed there, and the sudden and astonishing success of the Israel Defense Forces, symbolized by the eye-patched Gen. Moshe Dayan, was a refreshing contrast. No talk then of Israelis as colonialist settler oppressors.
July 3, 20252004 to 2024, Part One: When Each State Was at its Most Democratic By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The “presidential lean” of a state can, over time, tell us something about how it is trending.
— Though 2004 and 2024 produced similar topline national results, there has been some significant change in how individual states vote relative to the country.
— By this measure, Kamala Harris held up relatively well in Sun Belt Toss-up states, while it has been several cycles since the Rust Belt Toss-ups were at their most Democratic.

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                            July 2, 2025The Secret Sauce That Made America By John Stossel
Friday is the Fourth of July.

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                            July 1, 2025Democrats Need Populism, But Not Zohran's Sort By Daniel McCarthy
Zohran Mamdani is the latest sign establishment Democrats don't know how to handle a populist challenge.

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                            June 27, 2025The Barista Proletariat Wins in New York By Michael Barone
Zohran Mamdani's lead in first choices in New York City's ranked-choice mayoral primary, and his inevitable victory when second, third, fourth and fifth choices of trailing candidates are allocated to candidates voters ranked lower, mean that he'll be the Democratic nominee for mayor of the nation's largest city and the likely winner of the general election in November.
June 26, 2025Notes on the State of Politics: The Mamdani Upset and a Deeper Look at Virginia By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In New York City, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for mayor, defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
— One of the things that probably worked against Cuomo was the fact that some of his key constituencies are less likely to be registered to vote in Democratic primaries.
— Turnout in Virginia’s primary last week was slightly higher than what 2021’s primary saw, though there were some important locality-level changes.
— In winning the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) won most of the state’s congressional districts.
— The close Democratic primary for Attorney General helped illustrate how primary turnout patterns differ from that of general elections.

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                            June 25, 2025A War on Children? By John Stossel
Before Robby Starbuck became a problem for leftist companies, alerting consumers to stupid woke indoctrination policies, he directed music videos.

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                            June 24, 2025Secure Borders Win Wars Like This One By Daniel McCarthy
The Iran crisis of the past two weeks isn't just about nuclear weapons -- it's also an urgent reminder that border security is national security.

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                            June 24, 2025For America to Win the AI Race, Keep Government's Hands Off By Stephen Moore
At the birth of the internet age in the early 1990s, the U.S. and Europe took opposite approaches to advancing this new economy-changing technology.

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                            June 20, 2025Fast-Changing Events Making, or Remaking, History By Michael Barone
Events are moving fast. Seven days ago, as I write, Israel had not yet launched its first attacks on targets in Iran. Seven days from now, things may well have changed -- significantly.
June 19, 2025Friends, Neighbors, and Unfriendly Neighbors in Virginia’s Wild Democratic Statewide Primaries By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In a highly competitive Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) was powered by strength in her home turf in greater Richmond, while a very poor showing in the city where he was recently mayor, Richmond, cost Levar Stoney (D) dearly.
— Meanwhile, former state Del. Jay Jones (D) won a narrow victory of his own in the attorney general primary by building on his coalition from his unsuccessful run four years ago.
— Looking ahead to the fall, there is still ticket-splitting among the three statewide elections in Virginia, but that ticket-splitting has generally been on the decline.
— Virginia will also elect all 100 members of the state House of Delegates this fall, where Democrats already hold a narrow majority.

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                            June 18, 2025Americans Stand Behind President Law and Order By Brian Joondeph
Four years ago, we experienced “The Summer of Love,” specifically protests and riots honoring Saint George Floyd. Civil unrest erupted in 140 cities across 20 states, resulting in over $2 billion in insured losses, with the actual toll likely much higher.

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                            June 18, 2025The Little Pink House By John Stossel
Is your home your castle?

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                            June 17, 2025Congress Should Just Say No to a Remittance Tax By Stephen Moore
The House-passed "big, beautiful" tax bill is a tremendous achievement and a giant spark plug for growth. The bill extends all the Trump tax cuts of 2017, thus heading off a $4 trillion tax INCREASE next year. It expands health savings accounts, includes expensing of major capital and research expenditures by businesses, allows more money for school choice, and includes "no tax on tips" and no tax on overtime pay. And that's just for starters.

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                            June 17, 2025WEIRD Protesters Should Stay Home By Daniel McCarthy
When gray-haired white liberals take to America's streets for "No Kings" protests, the only danger they're exposing themselves to is ridicule.