Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

September 12, 2024Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Swing state polls show an incredibly close race in our 7 Toss-up presidential states right now.
— Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.
— If polls are understating Donald Trump again, he of course is in a great position to win given how competitive he already is in the core swing states. But there are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.

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                            September 11, 2024Good Guys with Guns By John Stossel
Do you carry a gun?

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                            September 10, 2024Hey Kamala, Where Are Your Spending Cuts? By Stephen Moore
In 1982 the federal budget deficit rose above $100 billion for the first time (those were the good old days!), and then-President Ronald Reagan agreed to an infamous budget deal with then-House Speaker Tip O'Neill. Democrats would agree to $3 of spending cuts for every $1 of tax increases. Reagan foolishly agreed to the deal. The taxes went up. The spending cuts never materialized.

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                            September 10, 2024Kamala Harris Runs Like a Republican -- and Misleads on Tariffs By Daniel McCarthy
Kamala Harris is losing the fight for the American middle.

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                            September 6, 2024What If Trump Runs Ahead of His Poll Numbers -- Again? By Michael Barone
As I try to understand public opinion in yet another presidential election year with former President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee, I see an anomaly.

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                            September 4, 2024The Election is On! What Are the Polls Saying? By Brian Joondeph
Both nominating conventions are past and election season is heating up. It’s not yet the home stretch but certainly the second half of the game.

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                            September 4, 2024A Dam Good Argument By John Stossel
Instead of using fossil fuels, we're told to use "clean" energy: wind, solar or hydropower.

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                            September 3, 2024Hey, Washington: Keep Your Hands Off the Internet By Stephen Moore
   Everyone these days -- on both sides of the political spectrum -- seems to want the feds to regulate internet access, prices and online content. They want the Federal Communications Commission to be the referee in terms of who gets connected to the internet and what can and can't be said.

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                            September 3, 2024On Abortion, Trump Is Moderate -- While Harris Is Maximalist By Daniel McCarthy
        There are two uncompromising sides in the abortion debate -- and then there's the middle, which is where most Americans are.

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                            August 30, 2024Lots of Tumult and Little Bounce This Election Year By Michael Barone
What if they held a tumultuous election, with an early one-sided debate, a candidate substitution and third-party withdrawal, and no voters changed their minds? Well, that's not exactly what has happened in America's 60th presidential election year, but it's not so far off, either.

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                            August 29, 2024Fact Check: RFK Jr. By John Stossel
Presidential candidate RFK Jr. suspended his campaign last week and endorsed Donald Trump.

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                            August 27, 2024Goodbye, JFK Democrats By Stephen Moore
   Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s exit from the Democratic Party (or was he booted out?) is only the latest sign that there are no more JFK Democrats left in positions of power in the Democratic Party.

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                            August 27, 2024Donald Trump Is Reagan's Heir By Daniel McCarthy
   As Donald Trump fights what now looks like an uphill battle against Kamala Harris, many Republicans find themselves thinking back to their high-school sweetheart.

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                            August 23, 2024The White College Graduates' Party's Candidate Doesn't Know Economic History By Michael Barone
Learning isn't necessarily cumulative. Human experience over the centuries provides lessons, some clearer than others. But each generation has to learn lessons anew, and some do not.
August 22, 2024Time for Change Model Predicts Close Election with Slight Edge for Kamala Harris By Alan I. Abramowitz
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE—The Time for Change model suggests that presidential elections are largely determined by three factors: the popularity of the incumbent president, the state of the economy, and the number of terms that the president’s party has controlled the White House.
—Specifically, the “Time for Change” factor of this analysis is based on the post-World War II reality that a party often can win the White House two straight times, but has a harder time holding it for longer than that.
—This year’s version of the model shows Kamala Harris as a narrow favorite in both the popular vote and Electoral College, but her predicted margins are so small that the safest prediction we can make about the 2024 presidential election is that it is likely to be very close.

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                            August 20, 2024Will Voters Settle for Joe Biden's Understudy? By Daniel McCarthy
   This week's celebration of Kamala Harris in Chicago faces an embarrassing fact: Until now, Democrats themselves thought she was less cut out to be president than Joe Biden.

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                            August 16, 2024Who's for the First Amendment -- and Who's Against By Michael Barone
"There's a lot of opposition to just hearing what President Trump has to say," Elon Musk said at the beginning of his two-hour interview on X with the 45th and would-be 47th president.

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                            August 14, 2024Native Truths By John Stossel
   American kids are now taught that before Christopher Columbus wrecked things, peaceful Native Americans protected the environment.

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                            August 13, 2024Donald Trump Has to Run Like It's 2016 Again By Daniel McCarthy
   If Donald Trump wants to return to the White House, he has to get serious about winning the "ground war."

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                            August 13, 2024Natural Gas Is Now Cheaper Than Water By Stephen Moore
   Among the great mythologies of recent years, one stands out above the rest, is that the world is in a "great energy transition." Actually, the world IS in a dramatic energy transition. But it isn't the one the Left wants it to be.