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Trump Change: ‘The Donald’ Rebounds

Friday, October 02, 2015

Donald Trump added some substance to his campaign this week with the release of a major tax cut plan and has reversed his declining fortunes in Rasmussen Reports’ latest Trump Change survey.

Our latest national telephone survey shows that 58% of Likely Republican Voters think Trump is likely to end up as their party’s nominee for president in 2016. That’s up six points from 52% a week ago  and matches the findings the week before that. But Trump is still down from an overall high of 66% a month ago. The latest finding includes 23% who say Trump is Very Likely to be the GOP nominee, up from 17% last week. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The latest numbers remain well ahead of the 27% of Republicans who felt a Trump nomination was likely when he formally announced his candidacy in mid-June. At that time, only nine percent (9%) felt Trump was Very Likely to be the GOP nominee.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Republican voters say Trump is unlikely to be their nominee, but that includes only 13% who say it is Not At All Likely.

For Trump and Jeb Bush, the future is now. 

Among all voters, 47% say Trump is the likely Republican nominee, but 48% disagree. This includes 17% who say it is Very Likely and 19% who consider it Not At All Likely. This, too, is Trump’s best showing in two weeks.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on September 30-October 1, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As long as the GOP race remains competitive, Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking Trump’s surprisingly successful early run for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

GOP voters aren’t unhappy at all with the resignation of House Speaker John Boehner and wouldn’t mind seeing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell step down too. 

Republicans are increasingly dissatisfied with the establishment GOP which Boehner and McConnell personify because of its perceived failure to battle President Obama and congressional Democrats over Obamacare, the president’s immigration amnesty and other major issues.  This helps explain the success outsider candidates like Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are having in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 48% think Trump is the likely Republican nominee, with 20% who say it is Very Likely.

Middle-aged voters like Trump’s chances more than those in any other age group. Whites think the billionaire developer is likely to be the GOP nominee more than blacks and other minority voters do.

The more a voter disapproves of President Obama’s job performance, the more confidence he or she has that Trump will end up as the Republican standard-bearer next year.

Following the second Republican presidential debate two weeks ago, 59% of Republican voters said Carson is likely to be the GOP candidate next year. Forty-one percent (41%) said the same of Fiorina, and 40% felt that way about Jeb Bush.

But that was before the controversy over Carson’s comment that he could not vote for a Muslim for president. However, 73% of Republicans – and 51% of all Likely Voters – say they could not personally vote for a Muslim president either.

Presidential hopefuls from both parties are making the rounds on the late-night talk show circuit in record numbers and appear to be having more success reaching younger voters through the increasingly popular medium.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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