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Trump Change: Is Trump Slip Slidin’ Away?

Friday, September 25, 2015

“The Donald” continues his downward slide, with this week’s Trump Change survey at its lowest level since we started the regular feature in mid-August.

Rasmussen Reports’ latest national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely Republican Voters still believe Trump is likely to be their party’s presidential nominee, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely. But the overall finding is down from 58% last week and from a high of 66% at the beginning of this month. At that time, 26% said Trump was Very Likely to be the nominee. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Still, the latest numbers remain well ahead of the 27% of Republicans who felt a Trump nomination was likely when he formally announced his candidacy in mid-June. At that time, only nine percent (9%) felt Trump was Very Likely to be the GOP nominee.

By comparison, late last week following the second Republican presidential candidate debate, 59% said Dr. Ben Carson is likely to be the GOP candidate next year. Forty-one percent (41%) said the same of former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and 40% felt that way about Jeb Bush.

But that was before the controversy over Carson’s comment that he could not vote for a Muslim for president. Interestingly, 73% of Republicans – and 51% of all Likely Voters – say they could not personally vote for a Muslim president either.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Republican voters now say Trump is unlikely to be the GOP nominee, with 13% who say it is Not At All Likely. That compares to 36% and 14% respectively a week ago.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on September 22-23, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As long as the GOP race remains competitive, Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking Trump’s surprisingly successful early run for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Among all likely voters, 45% think Trump is likely to end up as the Republican nominee, with 14% who say it is Very Likely. Forty-nine percent (49%) consider that outcome unlikely, including 22% who say it is Not Ay All Likely. This marks only a slight reduction in confidence in Trump’s nomination from a week ago.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Democrats – and 60% of all likely voters – still feel Hillary Clinton is likely to be next year’s Democratic presidential nominee, according to Rasmussen Reports’ latest Hillary Meter.

Most conservative voters say Trump is the likely Republican nominee; most moderates and liberals view that as unlikely.

Men and those under 40 continue to believe Trump has a better shot at the nomination than women and older voters do.

It may be a different election cycle with different candidates, but at least one thing hasn’t changed as far as most voters are concerned – media bias.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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