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Trump Change: Trump Jumps Further Ahead

Friday, September 04, 2015

“The Donald” has moved even further ahead in the latest Trump Change survey.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 66% of Likely Republican Voters now think billionaire developer Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee next year. That’s up seven points from 59% a week ago and up 10 points from 56% the week before that. But the latest finding includes only 26% who consider a Trump nomination Very Likely, down slightly from 29% in the previous survey. 

This compares to 27% of Republicans who felt a Trump nomination was likely when he formally announced his candidacy in mid-June. At that time, only nine percent (9%) felt Trump was Very Likely to be the GOP nominee.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Republicans still say Trump is unlikely to be their nominee, including 13% who say it is Not At All Likely. This compares to 38% and 12% respectively a week ago. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among all voters, 51% think Trump is likely to be the Republican candidate next year, including 21% who believe it is Very Likely. A Trump win seems unlikely to 45%, with 21% who say it’s Not At All Likely. This marks little change from the previous survey.

This survey was taken the night before and the night after Trump pledged not to run as a third-party candidate. 

Rasmussen Reports Managing Editor Fran Coombs or spokesman Leon Sculti are available for media comment on these poll results. Call 732-776-9777x205 or send e-mail to leon.sculti@rasmussenreports.com to schedule now.  

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on September 2-3, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump pointedly refused to say at the first GOP debate last month that he would not run as a third-party candidate if he didn’t win his party’s nomination. But yesterday he pledged not to run third-party. That’s good news for the GOP since over a third (36%) of Likely Republican Voters say they are likely to vote for Trump if he’s a third-party candidate, with 18% who are Very Likely to do so.  

Multiple polls show Trump still leading the pack of 17 major Republican presidential contenders. His bid for the GOP nomination in 2016, once seen as a pipe dream, is now a topic of serious discussion. So for the near future, Rasmussen Reports intends to track Trump’s race for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Men continue to have more confidence than women do in Trump’s chances for the Republican nomination. Those 40 and over think he has a better shot at the nomination than younger voters do. 

Most Democrats think Trump is unlikely to win the opposing party’s nomination. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 54% say Trump is the likely GOP nominee, with 21% who feel it is Very Likely.

The less a voter approves of President Obama’s job performance, the more likely he or she is to think Trump will be the Republican candidate next year. 

Trump has seen a surge of support in part because of his tough talk on illegal immigration and has pulled the GOP field in his direction. Ninety-three percent (93%) of Republicans consider illegal immigration a serious problem in America today, with 74% who say it is Very Serious. 

Trump is scheduled to hold a rally with fellow Republican hopeful Ted Cruz in Washington, D.C.next Wednesday to protest the Obama administration's nuclear weapons deal with Iran. The president appears to have enough votes in the Senate to cut Congress out of the loop when it comes to his nuclear weapons agreement with Iran. But voters still strongly believe that Congress should sign off on any deal with Iran before it takes effect

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only. 

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