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Trump Change: ‘The Donald’ Is Trending Down

Friday, September 18, 2015

Republicans lowered Donald Trump’s chances for the GOP presidential nomination for the second week in a row in Rasmussen Reports’ latest Trump Change survey.

Our latest national telephone survey finds that 58% of Likely Republican Voters still think Trump is likely to be the party’s nominee next year, but that’s down from 62% a week ago and a high of 66% the week before that. The new survey includes 23% who say Trump is Very Likely to be the nominee, also trending down from a peak of 29% two weeks ago.

Rasmussen Reports will put this in context at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today when we release new numbers on some of the other top contenders for the Republican nomination. These surveys were taken on the night of the latest Republican debate and the night after.

Only 27% of Republicans thought Trump was likely to end up as their party’s nominee when the outspoken billionaire businessman formally entered the race in mid-June.

Among all likely voters, 47% believe Trump is likely be the GOP nominee, with 19% who say it is Very Likely. This compares to 52% and 16% respectively a week ago. Forty-seven percent (47%) also now consider Trump unlikely to win the nomination, with 19% who feel it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among Republicans, 36% say Trump is not likely to end up as the Republican nominee, including 14% who say it’s Not At All Likely. This is comparable to findings a week ago.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on September 16-17, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

With Trump still leading the Republican pack despite a spotty showing at Wednesday night’s debate, Rasmussen Reports intends to continue tracking his race for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Men still like Trump’s chances for the nomination better than women do. Voters under 40 think he is more likely to win the nomination than their elders do. 

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters not affiliated with either major party believe Trump is the likely nominee, but that’s down from 50% a week ago.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Likely Republican Voters said earlier this week that they were likely to watch or follow news reports about the debate, with 71% who said they were Very Likely to do so. 

There were two major storylines going into the debate at the Reagan Presidential Library in California: Jeb Bush’s showdown with Donald Trump in hopes of reclaiming the lead and Carly Fiorina’s ascension to the A-debate stage.

Trump has proposed tax hikes on the country’s wealthiest households in response to what he feels are vastly overpaid CEOs and Wall Street hedge fund managers. Most Americans agree with Trump that these individuals are paid too much. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

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