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Trump Change: ‘The Donald’ Is Still the Odds-On Favorite

Friday, September 11, 2015

Donald Trump lost a little ground over the past week, according to Rasmussen Reports’ latest Trump Change survey.

Our latest national telephone survey finds that 62% of Likely Republican Voters think Trump is likely to end up as their party’s presidential nominee, down from 66% last week. The latest findings include just 24%, however, who think the billionaire developer is Very Likely to be the GOP nominee, down from a high of 29% two weeks ago.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) consider Trump’s nomination unlikely, with 16% who say it’s Not At All Likely. The latter figure is up slightly from last week and is the high to date. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

By comparison, though, only 41% of Republicans say Jeb Bush is likely to win the party’s nomination. That’s down 15 points from 56% in June when the former Florida governor formally announced his bid for the White House and includes just 10% who say Bush is Very Likely to be the nominee.

Among all likely voters, 52% think Trump is the likely Republican candidate next year, with 16% who say it’s Very Likely. Forty-six percent (46%) view that outcome as unlikely, including 20% who consider it Not At All Likely.

Rasmussen Reports Managing Editor Fran Coombs or spokesman Leon Sculti are available for media comment on these poll results. Call 732-776-9777x205 or send e-mail to leon.sculti@rasmussenreports.com to schedule now.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on September 8-9, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Multiple polls show Trump still leading the pack of 17 major Republican presidential contenders. For the near future, Rasmussen Reports intends to track Trump’s race for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

Trump holds a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in voter trust when it comes to the economy and immigration and is slightly ahead in the area of national security. Clinton holds small leads on social policy and the environment.

Men express more confidence in Trump’s chances for the nomination than women do. Voters of all ages rate his chances as about the same.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of conservative voters say Trump is likely to win the GOP presidential nomination, a view shared by only 43% of moderates and 41% of liberals.

Trump appeared at a rally in Washington, D.C., this week with fellow GOP presidential hopeful Ted Cruz to protest the nuclear weapons deal the Obama administration has negotiated with Iran. Most voters think Iran is unlikely to honor its commitments in that deal.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

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