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Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Friday, October 05, 2012

Mitt Romney now has swung back into the lead in the first post-debate survey of the presidential race in Florida.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Florida Likely Voters shows Romney with 49% of the vote to Obama’s 47%. Three percent (3%) are undecided at this point. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Last month, the race was Obama 48%, Romney 46%.  This is the third straight month the candidates have been within two points of each other. The spread has been three points or less in the Sunshine State in surveys since February.

Florida remains a Toss-up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.  Nationally, the candidates continue to run neck-and-neck in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Likely Voters in the state say they're certain to vote next month. Among these voters, Romney leads 51% to 45%.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Obama supporters are certain of their vote at this time, as are 87% of Romney voters.

Florida voters are evenly divided over which candidate they trust more to handle the economy: 46% say the president, 46% Romney. This marks little change from the previous survey.

If Obama is reelected and Democrats regain control of Congress, 42% believe the economy will get better, while 44% say it will get worse. The numbers are only slightly more encouraging for Romney: 44% say the economy will get better if he wins the presidency and Republicans win control of Congress, while 40% say the economy will get worse. 

When it comes to handling national security matters, 48% trust the president more, while 46% put more faith in Romney. Obama had a seven-point advantage - 47% to 43% - in this area in September.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on the U.S. Senate race in Florida next week.

Overall, just 13% of Florida voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Forty-nine percent (49%) say the economy is in poor shape. While 35% say economic conditions are getting better, 38% think they are getting worse.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) describe their own finances as good or excellent, while 10% view them as poor. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say their personal finances are getting better, while 28% believe they are getting worse.

Obama is ahead among those who rate the economy positively, while Romney’s out front among voters in the larger group who view the economy as poor.

Obama carried Florida over John McCain in 2008 by a 51% to 49% margin. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Florida voters approve of the job he is doing as president, while 47% disapprove. These findings include 33% who Strongly Approve of the president’s job performance and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. The president’s approval ratings in Florida are more positive than those measured nationwide.

Romney is now viewed favorably by 52% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 46%. This includes 38% with a Very Favorable view of him and 36% with a Very Unfavorable one. These sentiments have changed little from September. 

The Republican leads by six points among male voters. The candidates are essentially tied among female voters. 

Most young voters continue to favor the president, while the majority of their elders prefer Romney.

Along with Florida, Colorado, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin are Toss-Ups. Romney leads in ArizonaIndiana, Montana and North Dakota. Obama is ahead in ConnecticutMaineMassachusetts, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Washington.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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