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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 31% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-eight percent (38%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -7. That's the President's best daily rating in just over three weeks (see trends).

Most favor the extension of unemployment benefits signed by the President yesterday. As for the first-time home buyers tax credit, most like that idea until they learn how much it costs.

As the health care reform legislation is heading for a vote in the House of Representatives today, just 42% of voters nationwide support the plan and54% are opposed.

As House Speaker Nancy Pelosi seeks a path to 218 votes in support of the legislation, reports indicate that divides among Democrats over abortion and immigration have emerged as key issues. On abortion, 48% want coverage banned in the legislation while 13% believe coverage of abortions should be required. On immigration, 83% say that proof of citizenship should be required to get government health aid.

From a broader perspective, Democratic voters view health care reform as the top legislative priority. However, among Republicans and unaffiliated voters, health care reform currently ranks fourth among the four priorities announced by President Obama.

Voters tend to believe that an increase in free market competition will do more to reduce health care costs than more government regulation. But, the partisan gap remains wide on that point as well. A plurality of Democrats believe it would be good for workers to be forced off private health insurance coverage and shifted to a government option. Most Republicans and unaffiliated voters disagree.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. Rasmussen Reports also compiles the Presidential Approval data on a month-by-month basis which shows that the President's ratings slipped a bit in October after stabilizing in September.

Check out our review of this week's key polls to see "What They Told Us."

(More Below)

Fifty-five percent (55%) expect Washington politics to become more partisan over the coming year.

Most Democrats believe their party will gain seats in Congress next year while most Republicans and unaffiliated voters hold the opposite view. Thirty-four percent (34%) say the U.S. is generally heading in the right direction. Republicans continue to hold a modest advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Tuesday's election results confirmed data released earlier showing that 66% of voters are angry at the policies of the federal government and 60% saythat neither Republican nor Democratic political leaders have an understanding of what is needed today.

On a lighter note, Rasmussen Reports is gaining popularity in the popular culture; most recently being mentioned in Monday night’s episode of Gossip Girl, a CW network show. Earlier this year, Rasmussen Reports was mentioned in a Tonight Show monologue by Jay Leno and featured in a rap song on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon.

Scott Rasmussen has recently had three analysis columns published in the Wall Street Journal. The most recent was on health care. Earlier columns were on the President's approval ratings and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.

It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the President's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote.

(More Below)

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology).

Pollster.com founder Mark Blumenthal noted that “independent analyses from the National Council on Public Polls, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the Pew Research Center, the Wall Street Journal and FiveThirtyEight.com have all shown that the horse-race numbers produced by automated telephone surveys did at least as well as those from conventional live-interviewer surveys in predicting election outcomes.”

Additionally, an analysis by Pollster.com partner Charles Franklin “found that despite identically sized three-day samples, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll is less variable than Gallup.” During Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll was the least volatile of all those tracking the race. That stability is one reason that Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com said that the Rasmussen tracking poll “would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."

A Fordham University professor rated the national pollsters on their record in Election 2008. We also have provided a summary of our results for your review. In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.

In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by projecting that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. (see our 2004 results).

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Over the past five years, the number of Democrats in the country has increased while the number of Republicans has decreased.

Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 37.5% Democrats, 32.2% Republicans, and 30.3% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports Obama By the Numbers page. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.