Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Thursday, May 24, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows President Obama earning 45% of the vote and Mitt Romney attracting 44% support. Six percent (6%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another five percent (5%) are undecided.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.

Thirty percent (30%) of voters believe the United States is generally heading in the right direction.

Forty-eight percent (48%) believe the U.S. system of justice is fair to most Americans. There is less confidence that it’s fair to the poor.

Just 15% believe it’s more honorable to work for the government than for a private company.

(President Obama’s Job Approval Ratings Below)

 

A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 51% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).

In Pennsylvania, the president leads Romney by six.

Forty-four percent (44%) of Likely Voters see Romney’s business record as a reason to vote for him.  Thirty-three percent (33%) say it’s a reason to vote against him.

Romney has called for increasing the U.S. commitment to NATO, but just 29% of voters want to maintain our current troop commitment to the alliance. Just over half say it’s time to bring the soldiers home from Europe.

Forty percent (40%) now believe George Zimmerman acted in self-defense when he shot and killed Trayvon Martin. Twenty-four percent (24%) believe he should be convicted of murder. These figures reflect a significant turnaround since the story first broke.

In his radio update for the WOR Radio Network, Scott Rasmussen explains how voters’ experience with the private sector causes them to demand that the government either deliver more or spend less.

If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.  The Wall Street Journal has called him “America’s leading insurgent pollster,” and The Washington Post says Scott is a “driving force in American politics.”

To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports also compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.

(Daily Approval Index Updates Below)

Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14 (see trends).

During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.

(More Below)

Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service  and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate. A nationally syndicated TV show--What America Thinks --is scheduled for launch in September 2012.

Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

Like all organizations that conduct public opinion polls, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. 

Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans, 33.0% Democrats, and 31.2% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.