Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends).

Most voters nationally continue to favor repeal of the president’s health care law.  In Massachusetts, voters are evenly divided on the president’s plan. However, 48% think the state’s health care reform has been a success.  Twenty-four percent (24%) believe it has made health care more affordable, while 34% say the opposite.

On Super Tuesday, most of the attention will be focused on Ohio,  a state where Rick Santorum once held a strong lead but which Mitt Romney has turned into a tossup. Santorum is also thought to be competitive in Oklahoma and Tennessee  but is fighting off late Romney surges in both states. Native son Newt Gingrich is expected to win in  Georgia.Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters nationwide now expect the former Massachusetts governor to win the GOP nomination.

In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, the president leads Romney 48% to 42%. If Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads 48% to 41%. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history  for Obama vs. all four Republican candidates.

Republicans lead by three on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove.

Scott Rasmussen’s weekly syndicated column  looks at why politicians can’t connect with the middle class.

On Amazon, Scott’s new book has become the number one bestseller in the category of Politics and Social Sciences.  Order THE PEOPLE’S MONEY on Kindle or pick up a copy wherever fine books are sold.

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The economy remains far and away the most important issue of 2012. Eighty-two percent (82%) say it’s Very Important. Health care, government corruption and taxes are far behind but seen as Very Important by 60% or more.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of voters think members of Congress typically leave office wealthier than when they were first elected. Seventy-two percent (72%) favor a ban on all stock trading and investing by members of Congress while they are in office.

Just 27% believe that government efforts to manage the economy actually help the economy. Fifty percent (50%) believe the government efforts do more harm than good.  Upper income Americans are evenly divided on the question. Middle income Americans strongly believe that government attempts to run the economy end up hurting the economy.

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It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans, 32.5% Democrats, and 31.7% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

A review of last week's key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

To get a sense of longer-term trends, check out our month-by-month review of the president's numbers.