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Daily Swing State Tracking Poll

Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46%

Monday, October 29, 2012

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%.  Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

Romney has now led for 12 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Nationally, Romney still holds a modest lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state that put George W. Bush over the top. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year. 

(Swing State Job Approval Data Below Table)

Release Date

Obama

Romney

NET                   

October 29, 2012

46

50

Romney +4

October 28, 2012

46

50

Romney +4

October 27, 2012

45

51

Romney +6

October 26, 2012

46

50

Romney +4

October 25, 2012

46

50

Romney +4

October 24, 2012

46

50

Romney +4

October 23, 2012

45

50

Romney +5

October 22, 2012

46

49

Romney +3

October 21, 2012

46

50

Romney +4

October 20, 2012

46

50

Romney +4

October 19, 2012

47

49

Romney +2

October 18, 2012

48

49

Romney +1

October 17, 2012

50

47

Obama +3

October 16, 2012

49

47

Obama +2

October 15, 2012

48

48

Even

October 14, 2012

47

49

Romney +2

October 13, 2012

48

49

Romney +1

October 12, 2012

48

49

Romney +1

October 11, 2012

48

49

Romney +1

October 10, 2012

47

49

Romney +2

October 9, 2012

47

49

Romney +2

October 8, 2012

49

47

Obama +2

October 7, 2012

49

47

Obama +2

October 6, 2012

49

46

Obama +3

October 5, 2012

50

45

Obama +5

October 4, 2012

51

45

Obama +6

October 3, 2012

50

45

Obama +5

October 2, 2012

50

45

Obama +5

October 1, 2012

51

45

Obama +6

September 30, 2012

48

44

Obama +4

September 29, 2012

47

45

Obama +2

September 28, 2012

46

46

Even

September 27, 2012

46

46

Even

September 26, 2012

46

45

Obama +1

September 25, 2012

47

44

Obama +3

September 24, 2012

46

44

Obama +2

September 23, 2012

46

45

Obama +1

September 22, 2012

46

45

Obama +1

September 21, 2012

46

45

Obama +1

September 20, 2012

47

46

Obama +1

September 19, 2012

46

47

Romney +1

September 18, 2012

46

47

Romney +1

September 17, 2012

45

47

Romney +2

September 16, 2012

45

47

Romney +2

September 15, 2012

46

46

Even

September 14, 2012

46

46

Even

September 13, 2012

47

45

Obama +2

September 12, 2012

46

45

Obama +1

September 11, 2012

47

45

Obama +2

September 10, 2012

46

45

Obama +1

September 9, 2012

46

45

Obama +1

September 8, 2012

45

46

Romney +1

September 7, 2012

45

46

Romney +1

September 6, 2012

43

47

Romney +4

September 5, 2012

44

47

Romney +3

September 4, 2012

44

46

Romney +2

September 3, 2012

44

46

Romney +2

September 2, 2012

44

46

Romney +2

September 1, 2012

45

45

Even

August 31, 2012

45

45

Even

August 30, 2012

46

43

Obama +3

August 29, 2012

47

44

Obama +3

August 28, 2012

47

44

Obama +3

August 27, 2012

48

44

Obama +4

August 26, 2012

46

45

Obama +1

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The president’s Job Approval in the swing states is currently at 48%. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. These figures include 29% who Strongly Approve and 42% who Strongly Disapprove.

These results are derived from tracking poll data collected for the seven days ending October 28, 2012. The sample includes approximately 1,300 Likely Voters, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports issues our daily Swing State Tracking Poll to supplement, not replace, individual state polling. Romney leads by two in New Hampshire, Florida  and Virginia. He’s up four in Colorado and six in North Carolina. Obama leads by two in Nevada, five in Pennsylvania  and seven in Michigan.  The candidates are tied in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin.  See the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

New data out of Ohio will be released this morning.

(More data below table)

Release Date

Obama Approve

Obama Disapprove

Right Direction

October 29, 2012

48

51

38

October 28, 2012

48

52

38

October 27, 2012

48

52

37

October 26, 2012

49

50

37

October 25, 2012

48

51

37

October 24, 2012

48

51

36

October 23, 2012

47

52

37

October 22, 2012

47

52

37

October 21, 2012

47

52

36

October 20, 2012

47

53

34

October 19, 2012

48

51

35

October 18, 2012

50

50

36

October 17, 2012

51

48

38

October 16, 2012

51

48

38

October 15, 2012

50

49

37

October 14, 2012

48

50

38

October 13, 2012

49

50

39

October 12, 2012

48

50

37

October 11, 2012

48

51

38

October 10, 2012

48

52

37

October 9, 2012

48

52

37

October 8, 2012

50

50

38

October 7, 2012

50

50

37

October 6, 2012

50

50

37

October 5, 2012

50

49

39

October 4, 2012

51

48

37

October 3, 2012

50

49

37

October 2, 2012

50

49

36

October 1, 2012

50

49

36

September 30, 2012

51

48

35

September 29, 2012

49

50

35

September 28, 2012

48

51

36

September 27, 2012

48

50

37

September 26, 2012

50

50

38

September 25, 2012

51

48

39

September 24, 2012

50

49

38

September 23, 2012

49

50

37

September 22, 2012

50

49

38

September 21, 2012

50

48

38

September 20, 2012

50

48

39

September 19, 2012

48

51

37

September 18, 2012

48

51

37

September 17, 2012

45

51

36

September 16, 2012

48

51

38

September 15, 2012

49

51

39

September 14, 2012

49

51

38

September 13, 2012

50

50

38

September 12, 2012

50

50

38

September 11, 2012

50

49

40

September 10, 2012

49

50

38

September 9, 2012

49

51

36

September 8, 2012

48

52

33

September 7, 2012

48

52

32

September 6, 2012

46

53

30

September 5, 2012

46

53

29

September 4, 2012

47

52

30

September 3, 2012

47

52

29

September 2, 2012

48

51

28

September 1, 2012

49

50

29

August 31, 2012

49

51

28

August 30, 2012

50

50

30

August 29, 2012

50

49

30

August 28, 2012

51

49

30

August 27, 2012

51

49

30

August 26, 2012

51

48

30

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of swing state voters believe the nation is generally heading in the right direction. Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe it has gotten off on the wrong track.

The Key Three States are Virginia, Ohio and Florida. With 60 Electoral College votes, these three states are currently Toss-Ups. It is virtually impossible for Romney to win the White House without winning at least two of these three states. If he wins all three, he is likely to win the election. The president can keep his job if he wins two of these three states.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.

We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

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