Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

September 21, 2023The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature, Part One By Kyle Kondik
Democratic presidential lean muted in lower-turnout legislative races, but political environment appears to be different than 2021.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In this year’s state legislative races in Virginia, Republicans are trying to do something that has become rare: forge a state government trifecta in a state that voted for the other party for president.
— At first blush, Democrats would appear to have a clear edge on the map, but in an off-year election, the key districts’ presidential voting patterns overstate how Democratic they are in these legislative races.
— While President Biden’s approval rating is actually worse than it was in November 2021, when Republicans scored victories in that year’s Virginia races, the political environment is likely better for Democrats now than it was back then.

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                            September 20, 2023'Emergency' Spending By John Stossel
Did you survive the budget cuts from the last debt ceiling fight?

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                            September 19, 2023Is Google Guilty of Being Too Popular With Consumers? By Stephen Moore
You may have heard the Biden Justice Department is suing Google in federal court for being a "monopoly." That's a bizarre charge given that few, if any companies in all American history have lowered prices more than Google -- which provides access to information that used to take hours or days to find -- with merely a click of a button, and instantaneously. And it does it basically for free.

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                            September 19, 2023Do Sex Scandals Matter? By Daniel McCarthy
   "The Jerry Springer Show" has been off the air for years, but you'd never know it to judge by the state of American politics, which now serves up titillation and outrage as reliably as Jerry Springer ever did.

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                            September 15, 2023People of Color Trending Republican By Michael Barone
Are non-white voters really  moving away from the Democratic Party? To partisan Democrats confronting this question on Twitter (sorry, X), it seems preposterous that the party of former President Donald Trump, whom they routinely call a racist, could be gaining support from blacks, Hispanics and Asians.
September 14, 2023The Republicans’ ‘Excess Seat’ Edge in State Legislatures By Louis Jacobson
Republicans punch above their weight compared to presidential results in more places than Democrats.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We analyzed 48 states to see which have the most lopsided state Senate and state House chambers compared to how the state voted for president.
— Both parties have some states in which the legislative breakdown significantly exaggerates the patterns of the presidential vote.
— For Democrats, Hawaii, Rhode Island and Massachusetts have the most “excess seats” above the presidential vote threshold. For Republicans, the list is both longer and more varied, with Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin standing out as at least somewhat competitive states where the Republicans have large excess seat advantages.
— In all, Republicans have proven much more adept than Democrats at leveraging presidential vote patterns into even larger majorities in state legislative chambers. The GOP has achieved significant levels of excess seats in about three times as many states as the Democrats have.
— Gerrymandering is one reason for this, but it probably doesn’t explain the exaggerated legislative majorities in many states. Rather, the phenomenon of excess seats appears to be a natural consequence of minority parties being doomed into irrelevance once they start consistently losing presidential and statewide races, sapping their ability to recruit candidates and build party infrastructure.

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                            September 13, 2023Soda Tax By John Stossel
Want a soda? You'll pay more for one in Philadelphia, because five years ago, local politicians decided to tax it.

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                            September 12, 2023Cornel West Spells Doom for Biden By Daniel McCarthy
Fear has a name in the Democratic Party, and that name is Cornel West.

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                            September 12, 2023Maybe a Temporary Government Lockdown Is Necessary. The Alternative May Be Worse. By Stephen Moore
What's worse? When politicians shut down the government, or when they lock down businesses, stores, schools, churches and restaurants -- and nearly all private commerce in America?

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                            September 8, 2023Are you better or worse off than you were four years ago?  By Brian Joondeph
This would be a perfect question for a Rasmussen Reports survey, especially ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

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                            September 8, 2023Legalized Shoplifting Becomes a Racket, and Minorities Hardest Hit By Michael Barone
You could blame Victor Hugo. In 1846, the French novelist observed a young man being arrested for holding a loaf of bread he stole.
September 7, 2023How the Other Half Votes: The United States, Part Two By Kyle Kondik
Trend from 1996-2020 shows a much larger partisan gap between bigger and smaller counties, with 2000 and 2016 as key contributors.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020.
— The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap.
— While there is nearly a 40-point difference between the top and bottom halves, the gap did not grow from 2016-2020.

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                            September 6, 2023Debating a Democrat By John Stossel
Colorado has a popular Democratic governor, Jared Polis.

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                            September 5, 2023What Trump Does for Democracy By Daniel McCarthy
Pauline Kael knew she wasn't a representative American.

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                            September 5, 2023Biden's Killing the American Dream of Homeownership By Stephen Moore
In boasting about Bidenomics two weeks ago in Milwaukee, President Joe Biden declared that his policies are "restoring the American dream." Then he went into his creepy whispering mode and assured us "it's working."

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                            September 1, 2023The Tom and Daisy Buchanans North of Richmond By Michael Barone
"These rich men north of Richmond, Lord knows they just wanna have total control." So goes the refrain of singer and songwriter Oliver Anthony's suddenly famous song. "Wanna know what you think, wanna know what you do, and they don't think you know, but I know that you do."

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                            August 30, 2023Control Versus Choice By John Stossel
COVID cases are up. Hospitalizations climbed 24% last week.

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                            August 29, 2023Ramaswamy: A Trump Versus Trump? By Daniel McCarthy
In 2016, Donald Trump faced the strongest Republican presidential field in decades.

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                            August 29, 2023Why Won't COVID Lockdown Artists Admit They Were Wrong? By Stephen Moore
COVID mania just won't go away. The deadly strains of the virus have been gone for two years now, and yet the recent outbreak of a mild flu-like variant is again stoking panic on the Left.

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                            August 25, 2023Republican Debate: Whatever Happened in the Debate, Fundamentals Could Still Matter By Michael Barone
Having completed the first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign cycle, it's tempting to focus on minor but perhaps momentarily decisive details, such as whether Ron DeSantis was wise to outsource strategy to a committee that he's legally barred from communicating with or whether it was wise for Trump campaign spokesmen to not be allowed in the Fox News spin room.