The Battle for the Virginia State Legislature, Part One By Kyle Kondik
Democratic presidential lean muted in lower-turnout legislative races, but political environment appears to be different than 2021.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— In this year’s state legislative races in Virginia, Republicans are trying to do something that has become rare: forge a state government trifecta in a state that voted for the other party for president.
— At first blush, Democrats would appear to have a clear edge on the map, but in an off-year election, the key districts’ presidential voting patterns overstate how Democratic they are in these legislative races.
— While President Biden’s approval rating is actually worse than it was in November 2021, when Republicans scored victories in that year’s Virginia races, the political environment is likely better for Democrats now than it was back then.