The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating Changes in Virginia, Iowa, and Maine

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As the post-Labor Day sprint to the November gubernatorial races begins, we are upgrading Democrats in Virginia, moving that race to Likely Democratic. New Jersey remains as Leans Democratic.

— For the 2026 races, open seats in Iowa and Maine get more competitive in our ratings.

— Republicans should be able to easily win a new seat in Missouri as the result of a new proposed gerrymander, the latest development in the fast-moving redistricting wars.

Table 1: Gubernatorial rating changes

Map 1: Crystal Ball 2025-2026 gubernatorial ratings

Virginia Governor to Likely Democratic

In just over two weeks, in-person early voting will begin in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Even as this open-seat gubernatorial race enters its closing stretch, our basic assessment is not much different from when we first outlined the contest back in April, when we designated former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) as a favorite over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA).

To be sure, over the last month or so, some Republicans have maintained that the events of the campaign are moving in their direction. Most concretely, it was hard to miss an image of a woman protesting Earle-Sears’s presence at an Arlington school board meeting—the protester, who took issue with the lieutenant governor’s stance on transgender issues, held a sign that was racially insensitive. Though Spanberger distanced herself from the protester and condemned the message, the image was circulated widely on conservative media. The Earle-Sears campaign announced that the days immediately following the sign incident were her best fundraising days as a candidate in this race. That response may have encouraged Earle-Sears, who has long been known for her conservative stances on social issues, to lean more heavily on her opposition to transgender rights—her most recent ad is essentially a reprise of what became known as Donald Trump’s “Kamala is for they/them” ad, although the ad from the presidential race seems more effective because Harris, through her own words, gave Republicans more to work with on the issue than Spanberger has (watch both of the linked ads to see what we mean). Earle-Sears is also deploying outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in ads; Youngkin remains relatively popular and is a useful surrogate for Earle-Sears.

Will this all move the needle for Earle-Sears? Joe Szymanski, a Republican who takes a clear-eyed approach when analyzing elections, may have summed things up best in a Substack post. Essentially, while the Arlington sign incident on its own might not be enough to change the trajectory of the race, it may help Earle-Sears better consolidate Republicans. Since at least the June primary, there have been persistent reports of a GOP ticket that is less than unified. With Earle-Sears now raising the salience of red meat social issues, and with a foil in a woke protester, Republicans may have more reason to rally around their ticket.

The narrative of a GOP resurgence in the race has also been fed by a poll from Roanoke College. In mid-August, its poll gave Spanberger a 46%-39% lead over Earle-Sears, which was down from the 43%-26% margin that Spanberger had in their mid-May poll. Of course, a 10-point swing from the same pollster in a key race is notable, but we always thought that a 26% baseline was too low for any major-party statewide candidate in Virginia. In other words, we saw Roanoke College’s polls less as momentum for Republicans and more as the difference between a poll that was too good for Democrats and one that is more in line with where the race “should” have been all along. This is not to single out Roanoke College, as, to their credit, they are one of only a few pollsters that have waded into the race since the primary.

Perhaps tellingly, Spanberger’s leads have held up even as most other surveys have come from Republican-aligned firms. One of the latest examples was from co/efficient, which showed Spanberger with a 48%-43% lead even as the poll’s electorate looked more like 2021’s than 2024’s. Roanoke also used the 2021 exit poll, when Republicans swept the three statewide races, to weight its poll. Both polls arguably stress-tested Spanberger’s lead by suggesting an electorate that may be redder than what we will see in November, and she was still ahead (to be clear, we also don’t necessarily think Spanberger is “actually” leading by considerably more than what these polls show—mid-to-high single digits may very well be where the race is at).

In her own ads, Spanberger has been working to nationalize the race by linking Earle-Sears to the Trump administration. One Spanberger ad that has been running for about a month depicts Earle-Sears as unsympathetic to thousands of federal workers that have lost their jobs under Trump. More recently, Democrats in key races across the country have hit Republicans on their support of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Spanberger’s latest ad ties Earle-Sears to the higher costs of living that Democrats argue the bill may bring.

Going down the home stretch of the campaign, Spanberger is also set to dominate the conversation on the airwaves. One enduring theme of the race has been Spanberger’s financial advantage over Earle-Sears—throughout the major disclosure milestones this year, she has enjoyed a roughly 2-to-1 fundraising advantage. Spanberger also has a large advantage in future ad reservations, according to AdImpact Politics as of late last week.

Spanberger’s lopsided financial advantage, and the fact that the Trump administration seemed to go out of its way to ensure the state continues its longstanding trend of reacting against the presidential party, have had us feeling that Democrats should be stronger favorites to flip the governorship. We’ll be paying attention to whatever tea leaves that may show up in the early voting patterns, but for now, we are upgrading Spanberger’s position. Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.

In New Jersey, we are sticking with our Leans Democratic rating. Post-primary polling has consistently shown Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D, NJ-11) leading former state Assemblyman and 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, similar to Virginia.

Electorally, one of Sherrill’s priorities seems to be shoring up any weakness with minority voters. The results from June’s primary—where she emerged from a crowded contest with a 34% plurality—and some of the 2024 presidential results in the state offer some context as to why Democrats shouldn’t take minority voters in the state for granted. Yesterday, Sherrill campaigned with Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, one of her primary rivals who polled well in some of the state’s more diverse communities.

One reason why we’ve come to view New Jersey as the more competitive race is that Ciattarelli can run as the “change” candidate; this was a theme of his first post-Labor Day ad. Republicans have responded to Sherrill’s efforts to nationalize the race by laying much of the blame for the state’s problems at the feet of outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and the Democratic legislature. While such trends are meant to be broken, it also might be worth pointing out that neither party has strung together at least three gubernatorial wins in a row in the state since the 1960s.

With all that said, our bottom line for the 2025 gubernatorial races is that a Republican win in either New Jersey or Virginia in November would be an upset.

2026: Maine, Iowa, and more

Let’s take a look at the 2026 races. We are not going to go into every single race, as many are not really competitive at the general election level. But we do have a couple of other rating changes to make and additional observations to offer.

— Democrats are trying to win a third straight term in an open seat in blue-leaning Maine, a situation comparable to what’s going on in New Jersey. There’s a little more volatility in the Pine Tree State’s open gubernatorial race than our Likely Democratic rating suggested, so we are moving that race to Leans Democratic. With Gov. Janet Mills (D) termed-out, Democrats have a crowded primary that features Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, businessman Angus King III, and others. Pingree’s mother is Rep. Chellie Pingree (D, ME-1) and King’s father is Sen. Angus King (I-ME). There is a legacy name possibility on the GOP side, too, as businessman Jonathan Bush is among several Republicans already running or looking at the race (he is a nephew of former President George H.W. Bush—the Bush family has a famous summer home in Kennebunkport). Maine, a small state with quirky politics, sometimes has significant independent candidacies, and this election appears to feature at least one: state Sen. Rick Bennett, a former state Senate president and state Republican Party chair, is running toward the middle as an independent, and it is not really clear which major party his presence would hurt more. The lack of clarity about the major party nominees (and the potential for this to be more than a two-candidate race), all unfolding as Democrats try to win three straight terms, leads us to think this one could be a sleeper, even as Democrats retain an edge.

— We are making a similar move in Iowa, an open-seat race where longer streaks in office have happened for each party in recent years: Republicans are currently riding a four-election gubernatorial winning streak; Democrats won three in a row before that; and Republicans held the office for 30 straight years prior to that, 1969-1999. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), who won terms in her own right in 2018 and 2022 after taking over for former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) in 2017, is not running again, setting up an open seat race headlined by state Auditor Rob Sand (D) and Rep. Randy Feenstra (R, IA-4). Both face primary opposition but are currently favored to meet in the general election. Republicans are taking Sand’s candidacy seriously although they are hopeful they can pin a national Democratic label on him over the course of the campaign. Democrats have been performing excellently in special state legislative elections in Iowa this year, although as we noted last week, these kinds of elections have smaller and very likely more Democratic-leaning electorates than Iowa will have next year. That said, there may also be some actual dissatisfaction with Republicans in the state (Reynolds herself only has mediocre numbers, which may have contributed to her decision to retire). We do now think this race belongs in a more competitive category, and we’re moving it from Likely Republican to Leans Republican: again, like Democrats in Maine, Republicans are still favored. We are, however, going to keep the now-open Senate race as Likely Republican: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) just announced her retirement. Sand may have an easier time localizing his race as the gubernatorial nominee than the eventual Democratic Senate nominee may have in that contest.

— Open-seat races in Michigan and Wisconsin and Gov. Katie Hobbs’s (D-AZ) bid for a second term in Arizona remain our only Toss-ups. Michigan continues to feature the potential of a three-way race, as Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is running as an independent after winning his current position as a Democrat. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) and Rep. John James (R, MI-10) are the frontrunners for their respective party nominations, although each has to navigate a primary. Wisconsin, where Gov. Tony Evers (D) more recently announced his retirement, remains fluid, with unformed primary fields. Hobbs, meanwhile, narrowly defeated a hard-right opponent, Kari Lake (R), in 2022. She may have lost if Karrin Taylor Robson (R), a businesswoman, had been nominated that year. She is running again, and President Trump initially backed her and then also endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs (R, AZ-5), a more hard-right candidate. Rep. David Schweikert (R, AZ-1), who holds a swing seat in the House, is also considering the race. Biggs seemed like he could be favored in the primary but a recent poll from Noble Predictive Insights showed Taylor Robson leading him 37%-27%. The primary is still almost a year away, next August.

— The open seat in Kansas remains the Republicans’ best pickup opportunity at Leans Republican, and the GOP has a crowded primary with a number of credible candidates. Lt. Gov. David Toland (D) recently declined to run, and term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) backed state Sen. Ethan Corson (D) as her preferred successor, although he does not have the primary to himself. Democrats will attempt to tie the Republican nominee to very unpopular former Gov. Sam Brownback (R), and one of the leading Republican candidates is former Gov. Jeff Colyer, who took over for Brownback after he left for an ambassadorship during Trump’s first term (Colyer then narrowly lost a primary to now-Attorney General Kris Kobach, who then lost to Kelly). We do wonder if the potency of the Brownback attacks will fade now that he’s been out of office for so long. Democrats have had a good deal of success in this red state’s gubernatorial races—they have won 4 of the last 6 contests—but this still seems like an uphill climb even in the context of a Democratic-leaning midterm year.

— An open seat in Georgia and Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R-NV) reelection bid remain the shakiest Republican defensive assignments in 2026. We continue to view both as Leans Republican. Lombardo is a reasonably popular incumbent who likely benefits from facing a hostile Democratic legislature; he is set to face a credible opponent in likely Democratic nominee Aaron Ford, currently the state’s attorney general. One thing that could hurt Lombardo is an apparently sluggish economy in tourist-reliant Las Vegas. In Georgia, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R) officially entered the race and got Trump’s endorsement; he appears to be the favorite over state Attorney General Chris Carr, a Republican more in the mold of outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp (R). Democrats would seemingly prefer to face Jones, although they have their own primary to sort through: former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, state Sen. Jason Esteves, former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond, and state Rep. Derrick Jackson are among the contenders. Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, a Republican-turned-Democrat, might enter the race; he has some hypothetical appeal to the key suburban swing voters who may not like Trump much but went with Kemp in 2018 and (especially) 2022, but he would also have to win a primary (and potentially a primary runoff) against Democrats who can pretty easily get to his left on many issues.

— Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) continues to mull running statewide after losing a hard-fought reelection last year. We probably would move the open Alaska gubernatorial race from Likely Republican all the way to Toss-up if she ran in that race, although recent speculation has centered on her pursuing a challenge against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), which would be a more uphill battle as a federal race. A number of Republicans are already seeking the nomination, and former state Sen. Tom Begich (D), whose nephew Nick Begich III (R) beat Peltola last year and whose brother, Mark Begich (D), served a term in the U.S. Senate, recently entered the race. Tom Begich says he will defer to Peltola in the gubernatorial race, so some interpreted his decision to run as an indication Peltola was not seeking the governorship (and Begich said he expects her to run for Senate too). We will just have to wait and see what Peltola does. Another wrinkle is this: There have been some reports, most recently from Puck on Wednesday, that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) might consider running for governor herself. Sitting Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are already seeking their respective open-seat state governorships this cycle (all of those races are rated as Safe for the incumbent party).

— Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who like Peltola lost a tough statewide race in 2024 despite running much better than Kamala Harris did, faced the same choice Peltola is now apparently mulling, and he went the Senate route. That leaves Covid-era state Health Department Director Amy Acton (D) as the lone significant challenger to likely Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy in the open-seat Ohio gubernatorial race, although 2022 Senate nominee Tim Ryan, a former House member, could also enter the race. Ramaswamy is unproven but the race remains Likely Republican and will remain rated that way even if Ryan gets in, at least initially.

— A pair of incumbent Democrats, Govs. Tim Walz (D-MN) and Ned Lamont (D-CT), are each mulling whether to run again. If either retired, we would consider rating their respective states more competitively: Minnesota is currently Likely Democratic and Connecticut is Safe Democratic. A key candidate decision on the Republican side is whether Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) seeks a sixth, two-year term. If he did not, the Likely Republican rating there would swing toward the Democrats, perhaps dramatically.

— Gov. Dan McKee (D-RI) is in danger of losing a primary, but we doubt Republicans can capitalize no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

— Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) did draw a credible challenger in state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R), but he is a popular incumbent who is still well-positioned. Next door in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is also in a Likely Democratic race, but she seems to have found her sea legs in trying to push back against President Trump. Her position, both in the general election and against her primary challenger, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (D), appears to be better now than it was at the start of the year. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21) may run on the Republican side after Trump helped dissuade swing-district Rep. Mike Lawler (R, NY-17) from running, but Hochul does not seem very vulnerable against her or another GOP nominee.

— Just like Republicans may have missed a better opportunity to beat Hochul in 2022, so too may they have missed their best chance to win the Oregon governorship, which now-Gov. Tina Kotek (D) held as an open seat in a three-way race that year. The same logic may apply to Democrats in New Hampshire: They lost to now-Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) in an open-seat race last year, and Ayotte is favored to win a second, two-year term next year.

Conclusion

Overall, Republicans hold 27 governorships and Democrats hold 23. Democrats are favored to flip Virginia this year, and Republicans are favored to flip Kansas next year. Otherwise, Democrats are defending the three Toss-ups. Democrats will hope to cut into the Leans Republican category—specifically Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada—to try to make gains while playing defense elsewhere. Maybe some longer-shot targets come into play for them, too, like Alaska or Ohio. Midterm years sometimes feature gubernatorial waves in favor of the non-presidential party, which was a feature of years like 2006, 2010, and 2018, all years that the party not holding the presidency netted roughly half a dozen governorships in the midterm election. But that doesn’t seem as likely this year unless there is a Democratic megawave that leads to upsets that aren’t really on our radar right now. As of now, we think the net gubernatorial party change might be more modest, as it was in 2014 and 2022. And it’s not out of the question that Republicans will come out of the 2026 gubernatorial cycle with a net gain in governorships, which would cut against the normal midterm trend of presidential party loss.

P.S. Missouri Republicans eye 7-1 map

As Texas Republicans’ new mid-decade gerrymander made its way to Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) desk—prompting us to make the rating changes we previously described in the Crystal Ball official—Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) announced that he’d follow Texas’s lead by calling his legislature into a special session this week to pass a new map. Since the latest round of mid-decade redistrictings took shape, Missouri has stuck out to us as a state where Republicans could have easily gotten more aggressive. While Democrats have only held 2 of the state’s 8 seats since the 2012 elections, the 5th District, which is the Kansas City district, is not VRA-protected and is surrounded by GOP-held districts that are redder than it is blue. In other words, Republicans viewed MO-5 as a possible district to “crack,” even if they refused to do so during the post-2020 round of redistricting.

But as expected, the proposal that Kehoe unveiled—which also drew Trump’s praise—did exactly that. Under the current map, Jackson County, which contains most of Kansas City, is split three ways but is mostly in MO-5. Kehoe’s proposal splits Jackson County about equally between two districts, which each have more of a rural character. With the ruby red MO-4 “unpacked,” MO-5 would change from a district that backed Harris by 23 points to one that backed Trump by nearly 20 points. That type of swing would be enough for us to move MO-5 from Safe Democratic to Safe Republican in our ratings if the map were passed.

Aside from radically redrawing the Kansas City area, the most significant changes that Kehoe’s map proposes are in the St. Louis metro. Rep. Ann Wagner (R, MO-2), who has the least red of Missouri’s 6 current GOP-held seats, sees her seat move further to the right. Though it includes many suburbs in St. Louis County, her district expands its rural holdings. At Trump +8, we currently rate MO-2 as Likely Republican, making it a potential Democratic reach target. Under the new proposal, MO-2 would have backed Trump by about a dozen points, which may be enough for us to move the seat off the board entirely.

Kyle Kondik is a Political Analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and the Managing Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball.

J. Miles Coleman is an elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ and a political cartographer. Follow him on Twitter @jmilescoleman.

See Other Political Commentary by Kyle Kondik.

See Other Political Commentary by J. Miles Coleman.

See Other Political Commentary.

Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate.