Monday, November 05, 2018
The final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point, but in essence, the two parties are tied. The survey has a +/-2 percentage point margin of error.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead. Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until early last month. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.
The GOP now has a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But significantly, 20% of these voters remain undecided or prefer someone other than the Republican or Democratic candidates.
Just as in 2016, Democrats are more outspoken about how they’re going to vote in the upcoming elections than Republicans and unaffiliated voters are. Is it possible that another silent red wave is coming?
The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 28-November 1, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
At this time in 2014, prior to the last non-presidential year congressional elections, Republicans held a minor 43% to 41% lead. The GOP went on to gain control of the Senate and increase its majority in the House of Representatives in those elections.
Republicans now lead among men and those 40 and over. Democrats have the advantage among women and younger voters.
Blacks overwhelmingly prefer the Democrat. The Republican has small leads among whites and other minority voters.
In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control.
In the U.S. Senate, 32 seats are up for grabs this November, but 23 of them are now held by Democrats. So Democrats need to hold all 23 of those and pick up two of the Republican seats to win control of the Senate.
Most voters now commend President Trump for his economic leadership. That's potentially good news for Republicans facing an election in which voters say Trump and the economy are the big issues.
Economic and consumer confidence remain at or near record highs.
Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say the country is headed in the right direction. This compares to the mid- to high 20s for most weeks during President Obama's last year in office.
Following Kavanaugh's confirmation, voters are more confident in the Republican-controlled Congress than they have been in more than a year.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans say they always vote in midterm elections, as do 71% of Democrats and 63% of voters not affiliated with either major political party. The real story tomorrow will be which side turns out even more than usual.
Most voters think Democrats are likely to take charge of the House following the elections but expect them to fall short of capturing the Senate.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
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