Generic Congressional Ballot's Still A Close Call
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
With less than a week until Election Day, Democrats remain three points ahead of Republicans on the Generic Congressional Ballot, a survey with a +/- 2 percentage point margin of error.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This is unchanged from a week ago. Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until earlier this month, following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, when the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks. The Democrats have edged back ahead since then.
Separate surveying in early October found that Republicans were madder about the Kavanaugh controversy than Democrats were and more determined to vote in the upcoming elections because of it.
Rasmussen Reports will reports its final Generic Congressional Ballot findings on Monday.
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The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 21-25, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
At this time in 2014, prior to the last non-presidential year congressional elections, Republicans held a minor 43% to 41% lead. But the GOP went on to gain control of the Senate and increase its majority in the House of Representatives in those elections .
Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans prefer the candidate from their party, while 86% of Democrats opt for their party's candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Democrats post a narrow 42% to 38% lead, but significantly 20% of unaffiliated voters still haven't made up their minds with early voting already going on in many states.
In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats would need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control.
In the U.S. Senate, 32 seats are up for grabs this November, but 23 of them are now held by Democrats. So Democrats need to hold all 23 of those and pick up two of the Republican seats to win control of the Senate.
Most voters now commend President Trump for his economic leadership but are less impressed by his performance when it comes to foreign affairs. That's potentially good news for Republicans facing an election in which voters say Trump and the economy are the big issues.
Forty eight percent (48%) of all voters also now give the president good or excellent marks for his handling of immigration issues, compared to just 34% who felt that way about President Obama's performance in this area in his last year in office. Voters agree with Trump’s efforts to stop the horde of Hondurans now marching through Mexico from entering the United States illegally.
Following Kavanaugh's confirmation, voters are more confident in Congress than they have been in more than a year.
Republicans now control both chambers of Congress, and 51% say it's important to keep it that way. Slightly more (55%) say it's important for Democrats to win back control of at least one chamber.
Voters are almost equally confident that Trump, the GOP and the Democratic Party have plans for where to lead the country.
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