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Is Another Silent Red Wave Coming?

Friday, November 02, 2018

Just as in 2016, Democrats are more outspoken about how they’re going to vote in the upcoming elections than Republicans and unaffiliated voters are.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 60% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year compared to previous congressional elections. This compares to 49% of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major political party. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In August 2016, 52% of Democrats were more likely to let others know how they intended to vote in the upcoming presidential election, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Some analysts before and after Donald Trump's upset victory suggested that most pollsters missed his hidden support among voters fearful of criticism who were unwilling to say where they stood.

Similarly when asked now about family, friends and co-workers, 60% of Democrats say they are also more likely to tell others how they intend to vote, but only 46% of Republicans and 45% of unaffiliated voters agree.

Look for Rasmussen Reports’ final Generic Congressional Ballot on Monday morning. Democrats now hold a three-point lead on the survey which has a +/- 2 margin of error.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 31-November 1, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans say they always vote in midterm elections, compared to 71% of Democrats and 63% of unaffiliated voters. The real story on Tuesday will be which side turns out even more than usual.

Half of both men and women say they are more likely to tell others this year how they intend to vote. The older the voter, the more likely he or she is to let others know.

Blacks (55%) are more likely than whites (49%) and other minority voters (52%) to speak up about their vote this congressional election compared to ones in the past.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of those who feel more compelled to vote this year also say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of those who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing are more likely to speak up this election cycle. But voters who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance (60%) are even more likely to let others know how they intend to vote.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of all voters now approve of Trump’s job performance in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove.

Just over half (51%) of voters give Trump positive marks when it comes to his handling of the economy. Trump and the economy are the major concerns for voters going into the midterm elections.

Most voters think the media is more interested in creating controversies about candidates than in reporting where they stand on the issues. Voters also believe the media is trying to help Democrats in the upcoming elections which helps explain why Democratic voters are much bigger fans of election news coverage than others are.

In a survey two weeks ago, most voters said Democrats are likely to win control of the House of Representatives in the coming elections but are not likely to capture the Senate.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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