Republicans look like they’re in for a tough fight in Kentucky to maintain the seat of retiring U.S. Senator Jim Bunning.

The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state finds the two leading GOP candidates beating one top Democratic contender but struggling against the other.

Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson beats Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo by seven points 44% to 37%. Four percent (4%) of Kentucky voters like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided. Both men have announced their candidacies. Mongiardo was the unsuccessful Democratic challenger to Bunning in 2004.

Grayson runs dead-even 40% to 40% against another announced Democratic candidate, state Attorney General Jack Conway, with just three percent (3%) opting for some other candidate. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided.

Rand Paul, an opthamologist and the son of Congressman Ron Paul, also has announced his bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Kentucky. Paul beats Mongiardo by five points – 43% to 38%. Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate, and 13% are not sure.

But Paul trails Conway by four – 42% to 38% - in that hypothetical match-up. Four percent (4%) choose some other candidate. Fifteen percent (15%) are not sure.

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Thirteen percent (13%) of the state’s voters have a very favorable view of Grayson, while three percent (3%) regard him very unfavorably. Paul has 16% very favorables and nine percent (9%) very unfavorables.

As for the Democrats, Mongiardo is seen very favorably by 17% and very unfavorably by 18%. Seventeen percent (17%) have a very favorable opinion of Conway, with 11% who view him very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

But all four candidates have some name-building to do since a sizable percentage of Kentucky voters don’t know enough about them to even venture a soft opinion.

Only five percent (5%) of voters in the state give good or excellent marks to the U.S. economy. Forty-five percent (45%0 rate it as poor.

Thirty-six percent (36%) say the economy is getting better, while 37% say it’s getting worse. For 21%, it’s staying the same.

However, 52% worry that the federal government will do too much in reacting to the nation’s economic problems. Thirty-two percent (32%) fear the government won’t do enough.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Kentucky voters favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Fifty-seven (57%) percent oppose it. Opposition is higher in Kentucky than nationally. As in much of the country, the antis feel more strongly: 25% strongly favor the plan, but 45% strongly oppose it.

Twenty-four percent (24%) say the quality of health care will get better if the reform plan passes, but 53% say it will get worse.

While one of the stated goals of the plan is to drive down the cost of health care, only 17% say the plan will actually achieve that. Fifty-six percent (56%) say the cost will go up.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) expect passage of the plan to increase the federal budget deficit. Five percent (5%) think the plan will reduce the deficit, and 19% say it will have no impact.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of voters in the state believe it is at least somewhat likely that taxes will be raised on the middle class to pay for the health care plan. Sixty-two percent (62%) say it is very likely. Only14% say a middle-class tax hike is not very or not at all likely.

John McCain carried Kentucky by 17 points over Barack Obama in last November’s election. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Kentucky voters now approve of the president’s job performance, including 29% who strongly approve. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove of the job Obama is doing, with 41% who strongly disapprove. This is slightly worse than the president’s job approval ratings nationally as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Reports has begun surveying potential 2010 Senate match-ups and has released findings from Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina and Ohio.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) approve of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear’s job performance, with 17% who strongly approve. Forty-one percent (41%) disapprove, including 16% who strongly disapprove.

Rasmussen Reports also has released recent data on the 2009 governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia along with the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, New York and Ohio.

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