Kentucky Senate: Conway (D) Narrows The Gap On Paul (R)

Are Democrat Jack Conway’s questions about Republican Rand Paul’s religious views in college beginning to pay off? Paul is now ahead by only five points, his smallest lead to date in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Kentucky shows Paul with 47% of the vote to Conway’s 42%, his best showing since June. Four percent (4%) favor some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see question wording, click here.)

The survey was taken after the candidates’ contentious weekend debate when Conway pushed the message of his new campaign ad that suggests Paul’s antics in college show a lack of Christian faith. Paul reacted angrily and said he may call off the final debate the two candidates had planned. Conway has been denounced even by members of his own party for the ad, but this race now moves from Solid Republican to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Late last month, Paul, an ophthalmologist and political newcomer, posted a 49% to 38% lead over Conway, Kentucky’s current attorney general. In 12 surveys prior to this latest one, Paul has led by seven to 15 points, earning 46% to 59% of the vote. Conway, in those same surveys, has picked up 34% to 42% support.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on October 18, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

How do voters now rate the candidates’ political views? Which candidate do they think is more extreme? Is there more negative advertising in this race than usual? Become a Platinum member and find out.