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North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 47%

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

The presidential race in North Carolina is tighter this month, but Mitt Romney still earns over 50% of the vote in the key battleground state.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely North Carolina Voters finds Romney with 51% support to President Obama’s 47%.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) is still undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last month, it was Romney 51%, Obama 45%. Because of the narrower gap between the two candidates, this race now moves from Leans Romney to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. In 2008, Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry North Carolina in over 30 years.

The president earns his highest level of support yet since Rasmussen Reports first surveyed the state in early April.  Since then, support for Romney has ranged from 46% to 51%, while Obama has picked up 43% to 47% of the vote. 

Overall, 95% of North Carolina voters are certain they will vote this election.  Among those who are certain to vote, 51% prefer Romney, while 48% support Obama.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters in the state believe if Romney is elected president and Republicans win control of Congress, the U.S. economy will get better. That's not much more confidence than the 41% who believe the same if Obama is reelected and Democrats regain control of Congress.  Still, 50% feel the economy will get worse if Obama wins a second term, while just 38% think that if Romney wins the election.

Perhaps that helps explain why voters trust Romney slightly more than Obama – 50% to 47% - to handle the economy, the most important issue this election. The two are nearly tied in North Carolina when it comes to national security issues: 49% trust the former Massachusetts governor more, while 47% have more faith in the incumbent.  Nationally, voters rate the two candidates similarly on national security but give Romney a seven-point edge when it comes to the economy.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on October 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

Just 13% of North Carolina voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 44% give it a poor rating.  Thirty-six percent (36%) feel the economy is getting better these days, but 48% feel it’s getting worse. 

Voters in the Tar Heel State are much more optimistic when it comes to their own personal finances. Thirty-eight percent (38%) give their personal finances positive marks, compared to only 14% who think their finances are in poor shape.  But just 28% say their finances are getting better, while 34% say they’re getting worse.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of the state’s voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, up from 43% in September.  Fifty percent (50%) disapprove of the president’s job performance. This includes Strong Approval from 35% and Strong Disapproval from 44%, earning the president a better job approval index rating in North Carolina than he gets nationally.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of North Carolina voters have at least a somewhat favorable impression of Romney, while 47% view him unfavorably.  These figures include Very Favorables of 31% and Very Unfavorables of 36%. 

Romney is ahead of Obama 59% to 41% among male voters in the state but trails by a 52% to 44% margin among women.  Most voters under 40 support the president, while their elders favor Romney. 

Romney draws support from 82% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats in North Carolina.  Obama earns the support from 76% of voters in his own party.  Among voters not affiliated with either political party, it’s Romney 60%, Obama 36%. 

Along with North Carolina, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin are Toss-Ups.  Romney leads in ArizonaIndiana, Montana and North Dakota. Obama is ahead in ConnecticutMaineMassachusetts, MichiganNew MexicoPennsylvania and Washington

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