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Election 2012: Ohio President

Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49%

Monday, November 05, 2012

The pivotal presidential state of Ohio remains all tied up on the eve of Election Day.

The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ohio is still one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections, along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Polls in Ohio close at 7:30 pm Eastern tomorrow. If Romney wins Virginia and Florida, he also will need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin to be on track to capture the White House.

The race in Ohio was tied late last week after Romney posted a slight 50% to 48% advantage a few days earlier. The candidates have been within two percentage points of one another or less in every survey in Ohio since May.

Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.

Ninety-three percent (93%) have made up their minds whom they will vote for, and it’s Obama 50%, Romney 49% in this group.

Helping to explain the closeness of the race here is that the candidates run nearly even when Ohio voters are asked whom they trust more in several key policy areas. Romney has a three-point edge over the president in voter trust when it comes to the economy, a two-point lead in the area of job creation and is ahead by one point with regards to energy policy. But Ohio voters trust Obama more by four points when it comes to housing issues and by two points in the area of national security.

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on November 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama carried Ohio in 2008 by a 51% to 47% margin. Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters in the state now approve of the job he is doing as president, while 48% disapprove. This includes 35% who Strongly Approve and 43% who Strongly Disapprove.

The president is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 49%. Thirty-seven percent (37%) hold a Very Favorable view of the incumbent, while 40% regard him Very Unfavorably.

Fifty-two percent (52%) share a favorable opinion of Romney, while 47% view him unfavorably. This includes 37% with a Very Favorable opinion and another 37% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Both candidates earn roughly 90% support from voters in their own party. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, the president leads 50% to 42%.

Romney leads by seven points among male voters in Ohio but trails by seven among female voters. Fifty-six percent (56%) of white voters support the GOP challenger. Ninety-five percent (95%) of blacks favor Obama. The president also leads 59% to 33% among voters of other races.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of all Ohio voters give the U.S. economy good or excellent marks. Forty-two percent (42%) rate the economy as poor. Forty-nine percent (49%) say their personal finances are good or excellent, but 13% describe those finances as poor.

Romney is ahead in ArizonaIndianaMissouri, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota. Obama is ahead in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Washington.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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